Back before the playoffs kicked off, I chipped in to a friendly first round pool with some other NBA obsessives. Historically, the NBA playoffs go overwhelmingly to formula: over a 7 game series the team with the better regular season wins. You can't win a pool by playing these odds, though, because a best case scenario leaves you tied with endless other people who also played it safe.
My big first-round upset prediction was the Bulls over Miami in 7 games. The Bulls went 10-2 at the end of the season to fight their way into the playoffs while the Heat looked lazy and distracted. Scott Skiles has done a fantastic job getting Chicago to consistently play hard and in the games I've seen has been an excellent in-game tactical coach. With all their brittle veterans Miami's risk of injury seems as great or greater than the rest of the playoff field. You knew the Bulls were going to be out-matched in the paint, but good coaching and intensity can cover some flaws.
Complete predictions
Wizards over Cavs in 7
Bulls over Heat in 7
Nets over Pacers in 6
Pistons over Bucks in 5
Suns over Lakers in 6
Spurs over Kings in 6
Clippers over Nuggets in 7
Mavericks over Grizz in 5
The Wizards, Bulls, Pistons, Mavs and Clippers are making me look pretty good so far. The Pacers, Lakers and Kings aren't taking their medicine the way they were supposed to.
The biggest surprise of these playoffs has been the Lakers dominance of the Suns. Really, does it make Kobe seem worse to suddenly see him play incredibly unselfish team ball? Which is worse: for him to be incapable of this or to have been capable and deliberately not playing this way? Can Lakers fans love this series and not want to stone Kobe to death for single-handedly giving Detroit the '04 championship?
LeBron has been brilliant and inconsistent, just what you'd expect of a 21-year-old superstar. The Pacers have shown an incredible ability over the last few years to just turn it on once the playoffs starts. They've been 150% better during the Nets series than they were the last few weeks of the season.
With all the top seeds that have been struggling this year, is David Stern's dream of increased parity starting to come true? I thought I was being bold by predicting that 3 of 8 first round series would go to 7 games. It might be surprising if 3 don't.
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Interesting post. I've enjoyed watching the Bulls-Heat series and the Suns-Lakers series.
I expect the Bulls to ultimately lose the series, but I'm proud of how hard we've fought. The Heat have far more talent, but a lot of their new additions (Walker, Williams) are overrated and cost the Heat as much as they help. The Bulls' team defense is impressive and they have great team chemistry. Plus they match up well with the Heat, who have trouble defending fast/athletic perimeter players. The Heat need Shaq to be dominant in this series because the Bulls can do a great job on Wade and have no one inside, but Shaq is not capable of dominating the way he used to.
That said, I expect the Bulls to lose this series, even though I will of course be cheering for them to win. They just don't have enough talent yet.
Regarding your other comments, I think you're being a bit unfair to Kobe, although we all like to pick on him. :) I think that Kobe has been successful playing this way because of Phoenix's lineup and style of play. Phil Jackson has brilliantly exploited the Suns' lack of interior defense and he's taken control of the pace of the game from the Suns, which has disrupted their rhythm. I don't think the plan would work well against a team like the Spurs or Pistons (or even the Sixers or Kings), though, so it's hard to say whether the Lakers would have had more success if Kobe played like he has in this series.
I also don't think there is as much parity as there seems at first glance. First of all, some of the first-round "upsets" are due to the stupid seeding, which will get fixed for next season. The Clippers shouldn't have been playing the Nuggets--they should have met the Grizzlies in the first round and not had home-court advantage. The Nuggets should have been the ones getting swept by the Mavs.
The Lakers, though, are a genuine upset--the result of brilliant coaching, in my opinion--and I think what we've seen from the Bulls and Pacers are the result of the fact that some teams' true strength isn't reflected by regular season records. Sort of like the 6th-seed defending champ Rockets winning the NBA Finals in 1995. The Bulls had a monster end of the season, and the Pacers didn't have O'Neal healthy for almost all of the year.
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