Two years ago on the list-serve that predated this blog I raved about the potential of Danny Granger. As a senior at New Mexico, Granger looked like he could step into the eight-man rotation of a strong NBA playoff team from day one. There was much gnashing of teeth in the B household when Indiana took him one pick ahead of the Celtics in the 2005 draft.
Last year in the early round of the NCAA tourney I posted about two college players that looked like late-lottery/mid-first round steals: Brandon Roy and Joaquim Noah. I wasn't alone. If Roy can stay free of injury he'd be the presumptive favorite for Rookie of the Year. Noah ended up getting lots of 'top three' pick buzz before electing to stay in school.
This year I'm not waiting for the NCAA tourney to give you an early favorite. Circle the name Corey Brewer in your programs. He's a 6'9" shooting guard for Florida who steals the show every time I turn on the TV to watch Noah and Al Horford (everyone’s' top 5 projected big men). Brewer is the classic example of a player who might slip into the late lottery or the middle of the first round because he looks like a super rotation player rather than a potential All Star. As a result he'll go after plenty of projects with upside potential (e.g. Hasheem Thabeet, Yi Jianlian), many of who'll bust out, and some already-decent team will luck into landing one of the top players in the draft.
Call it the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince phenomena
The last few Florida games I've watched I've loved Brewer. He's a defensive stopper who's fine with being the 3rd option but has real offensive ability (with the exception of a streaky jumper). There were several Florida games last year in which Taureen Green couldn't hit a jumper, the other team's big men were able to frustrate Horford and Noah, and Brewer stepped up and took over the offense.
His handle and ability to drive surprised me in those situations, and he shows a great understanding of where he ought to be on the floor. At the college level he can get any shot off he wants, without particularly exerting himself. He's not the most consistent at finishing at the basket or with his jumper. Both of these things will cause scouts to downgrade his value and should keep him out of the top 10. But these are also two of the things that are easiest to improve at the pro level with year-round practice and repetition. In his favor Brewer has got legitimate 3-point range, can hit the midrange pull-up and he does everything else well. Assuming the FG% improves he's going to be an excellent pick for somebody.
If he walked into the Celtics practice tomorrow he'd be an immediate improvement over Tony Allen and Delonte West at SG
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3 comments:
Nice game for Granger, apparently. Did Tony Allen just blow out his knee?
It will be all over the news tomorrow. Tony was fouled near the free thrown line as he started driving to the hoop in the third quarter, and like 90% of NBA players completed the drive and went up to dunk. When he landed on his left knee he almost certainly blew out his ACL (from the look of it). Reminded me immediately of the play (in 1999?) when John Valentin collapsed at third base try to field a routine ground ball.
If it was an ACL that might be the end of his career, sorry to say. He'll be recovering from a serious injury at the same time that he's trying to get a post-rookie contract deal. That's a tough sell.
Another quick thought: any discussion of the next draft would be remiss if the two players at the top of it weren't mentioned, even in passing.
Watching Greg Oden play college ball is like watching Shaq when he was at LSU: there is absolutely no question that he's going to dominate from his first day in the league. That combination of size, quickness, strength, timing and skill in a 7' human being comes along perhaps once a decade. The superlatives that are written up all over the place are not over-stated.
Kevin Durant isn't any worse. A friend observed that his game right now is exactly like Carmelo Anthony's, except that Durant is 6'10" and more athletic. Man alive, he just went for 37 points and 16 board and that's as a college freshman. Durant might well lead the NBA in scoring in 3 or 4 years, and that's with LeBron, Wade and 'Melo all entering their prime.
Oden will get drafted first because he's a center and Durant is likely a SF, but whichever team gets either of them will be set for the next decade. This draft is shaping up like 2003 (LeBron, 'Melo, Bosh and Wade in the top 5) all over again.
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