Thursday, April 12, 2007

Tanking.

Further to my lunchtime conversation with B., consider this post on why the NBA sees more late-season tanking than other leagues.

1 comment:

B said...

Most persuasive explanations, to me:

1) Benefits are high #1 - Partly a function of the far greater transparency/predictability of the future success of basketball prospects than those of other sports. In part this is because there are so few human beings over 6' with the skill and athleticism to play pro hoops. In the NBA the best players overwhelmingly get drafted in the top of the 1st round. In the NFL Tom Brady gets selected in the 6th round. MLB teams have a 732-round draft, spend several years of minor league ball evaluating prospects, and still nobody can tell which middle relievers will be worth a damn next year

2) Benefits are high #2 - Basketball allows for five starters, who play both offense and defense. Baseball has nine+ starters, each used situationally. Football has 22 starters. A 25-year-old Shaquille O'Neal can dominate an entire basketball game every night at both ends. Dice-K only pitches once every five games. Brady is powerless to stop Manning when it matters.

3) Costs are low - In the NBA, only the top handful of teams are really playing for the championship every year. If you're not cracking 50 wins in the regular season you have no chance. In the NFL or MLB any team that can make the playoffs can go on a run and win it all.