Sunday, March 04, 2007

Telfair.

On the subject of breaking up the Celtics, a double-overtime game this afternoon and Sebastian Telfair was a DNP--Coach's Decision. So, um, that's not so good.

5 comments:

B said...

Telfair has been a big disappointment this season, no question; and Ainge's trading for him last summer is looking like one of the worst moves of the last four years. And given how little I liked the trade for Wally that's saying a lot.

Telfair is relatively short and lacks either an extremely quick first step or a good outside shot. His verticle leap is not fantastic, either, which means he has all kinds of problems finishing at the rim against NBA PF/Cs with any sense of timing. Watch Bassy drive to the hoop and you'll often see him do this strange thing where at the last second he leaps away from the rim while trying to lay the ball in very high off the glass. The reason is that most NBA post defenders can block Telfair's layups while avoiding contact, an experience Bassy has had often enough that it now appears to be messing with his game. Personally, I think Telfair should watch old tapes of Sherman Douglass and learn the little mid-lane flouter from 5'.

In any event, the result of all this is that Telfair is currently something of a laibility in a half-court offense and, at best, only kind of a liability on defense. He unquestionably looks his best in the open court, which would make him a great fit for the backup PG job for, say, the Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies or Toronto Raptors. The Celtics' best players (Pierce, Jefferson, Wally) look lousy in up-tempo ball or refuse to play it, however, which makes you wonder why Ainge traded for Telfair in the first place.

I suspect the answer is partly that Ainge thought he would turn around and flip Telfair to Philadelphia as part of a trade for Iverson, which, if true, makes the miscalculation all the greater.

Whatever the reason, trading for Telfair only makes sense now as a buy-and-hold proposition, since the number of modern PGs that have been successful at the NBA level before age 24/25 is very very short (e.g. Isiah, Bibby, Kidd). During preseason Ainge and Doc seemed to have the idea that Sebastian was going to hold down our starting PG position for ~30 mpg this year. They clearly dramatically over-estimated the kid, which doesn't provoke a lot of confidence in their talent evaluation.

Celtics fans often gnash their teeth about the team's decision in 2001 to trade (now All Star) Joe Johnson for the several month rental of Tony Delk and Rodney Rogers. Ainge's decision in last summer to trade the pick that would have been (soon-to-be rookie of the year) Brandon Roy for Telfair may turn out to be equally frustrating.

B said...

Final thought: credit to R.M. for panning Telfair and this trade at the time. Not having seen Bassy play more than once in the previous two years I was willing to give Ainge's scouting the benefit of the doubt. Clearly, I was wrong to do so

t.s. said...

In slight mitigation of Ainge's Telfair bungle, the Celtics needed a 1 much more than they needed another 2. They already had Tony Allen and Gerald Green, and Delonte West.

B said...

While this is true, it looks now like a 'drafting for need instead of talent' kind of mistake

If West or Allen ever become a starting-quality SG, and Telfair becomes a starting-quality PG, then the sting of this trade might lessen. Right now, however, they are all the kinds of players that might get ~15 minutes off the bench for a strong playoff team. Roy is easily the best of the lot, was a strong starter from his first day in the league, and has as good odds to improve as anyone else

The distinction between the positions they play can get overblown. Given the way the Celtics use Delonte at PG, there's no reason Roy couldn't have played major minutes at the 1 in our offense. When West plays the point he brings the ball over half court, passes off (usually to Pierce) to start the offense, and then goes and waits to score points off of ball movement. Since Delonte's rather slow-footed and can't drive with his right hand he very rarely initiates in the half court like a traditional PG. I suspect this is part of why Bob Cousy can't stand Delonte as a PG (Cooz was scathing during the first half of the season and I suspect has been told by the powers that be to tone it down).

Roy could do everything we ask of West, only better. He can drive with both hands, shoots jump-shots for a higher eFG%, consistently makes great decisions, is several inches taller, is a better defender, and is generally a stud. But then, this is all part of why people were surprised when Roy slid all the way to 7th in the draft, and also surprised that West got taken in the first round

r.m. said...

Thanks for the kind words.

As I said at the time, I would have considered trading a low first-rounder for Telfair but not the #7 pick. At that spot the Celtics could have gotten Roy, Gay, or Foye. All three of them will likely have a much better career than him.