Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Fix the Celtics, part 2

Don't like big, elaborate trade proposals that involve multiple teams and have close to no chance of ever happening? Here's a less complicated trade proposal that makes the Celtics significantly better next year

Background: the trade stems from the persistent rumors that the Utah Jazz are looking to move Andre Kirilenko. AK is several years removed from his insane peak when he led the Jazz in basically every statistical category and became the second player in NBA history to be top 5 in the league in both steals and blocks (first: David Robinson). At the time AK was both an All Star and voted to the All-NBA defensive team. Since that time the Jazz gave him a max contract (currently four more years at ~$15M per) and then signed someone who plays his same position. To say that AK has struggled since the team moved him to SF upon the arrival of Carlos Boozer is an understatement. His play has declined, his stats are way down across the board, and everyone in the league believes he's frustrated as hell. It’s a sign of the team’s respect for him that they thought he could shift positions without missing a beat, but in retrospect it’s obviously been a big failure.

AK appears to be the walking definition of a player who needs a change of scenery. He's clearly a PF, although one that can play away from the basket on offense and defense. His relationship with Jerry Sloan and the Jazz front office may be permanently damaged after what AK seems to consider two years of mistreatment. The latest rumors are that a good faction of the locker room (Boozer, Deron Williams, Derek Fischer) don't like him personally are would be happy to see him gone. Unfortunately for Utah this is a summer when teams will be holding out to try and trade for lots of big names (KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Gasol, Ray Allen, etc). The buyers in the trade market are likely to put AK well down their wish lists. Regardless of what Utah wants, they're going to have to settle for what they can get.

When AK was playing well he was the greatest example in the last decade of a player who can dramatically influence the game without needing the ball in his hands. Think of a more talented and productive Dennis Rodman without the crazy. If he played at 80% of his peak in Boston he'd be a huge addition between Jefferson at C and Pierce at PF.

Boston gives - Wally Szczerbiak, Gerald Green, #31
Boston gets - Andre Kirilenko

Utah gives - Kirilenko
Utah gets - Szczerbiak, Green, #31

Why for Utah: AK takes up a huge part of their salary cap and hasn't made the shift to SF they way they hoped. Now there appear to be rifts developing between him, his teammates and the coaching staff. Wally and Gerald give them two natural SFs, one for now and one for later. Wally’s no more than an average-starting SF at this point, but so was Kirilenko playing out of position the last two years. Wally's contract comes off the books in two years, just when Utah will need to resign Deron Williams. The Jazz save ~$35M total on the deal, which should make their car salesman owner happy.

Why for Boston: Along with this deal the Celtics sit on the #5 pick and take Corey Brewer. A lineup of AK, Brewer and Rondo would be incredibly disruptive defensively with plenty of efficient scoring from Jefferson and Pierce. Under Doc 'I don't know what the hell I'm doing, do I have any time before the game to figure it out?' Rivers, AK would be free to run all over the court and wreck havoc. If the Celtics believe they can get Brewer later in the top 10 they could explore trading down with Minnesota (Trenton Hassell) or Chicago (Chris Duhon/Thabo Sefolosha) to get another good-defensive vet win or backup PG for roster balance and depth.



Extra bonus trade variant: If this trade for a plus-defending vet All Star doesn't work out there's always version 2.0: Ron Artest. The Kings have all but printed press releases stating that Artest will be moved this summer. The number of teams willing to take him on will likely fall somewhere between none and almost none. Sadly, this probably includes the Celtics since our ownership seems more concerned with good behavior then actually winning games. At the same time, if the Cs are going to get better they need to be prepared to take calculated risks. Nobody is going to offer them a vet All Star for nothing. Artest’s contract and on-court play are both incredibly attractive. His price will likely be even less than AK's. Even if we consummated a deal with Utah, I'd consider moving Theo Ratliff's expiring and insurance-paid deal for Artest and filler.

Ron-ron is a loose canon on the best of days. He's also only got two years left on a very reasonable contract and still as productive (although much less popular with voters) as when he was an All Star and All-NBA defensive player.

The roster below does some serious damage in the East, combining one of the best half-court defensive rotations in the league with inside-out scoring

The 07-08 Celtics

1 – Rondo, Duhon?
2/3 - Pierce, Artest, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Delonte West
4/5 - Jefferson, AK, Gomes, Perkins

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