Florida deserves all kinds of props for their national championship. They played extermely well all tournament. Too bad last night's game was probably a marketing dud since it was so lob-sided as to be a boring watch for those who aren't hard core college hoops fans or NBA draftnicks. UCLA looks completely outmatched at every position except PG, which was a draw.
I don't have anything to add about Joakim Noah that hasn't been beaten to death in the press. Back at the start of the tourney when I wrote this post about him the Celtics were looking like they'd have about the 9th pick in the draft and Noah was just getting talked about as a possible lottery selection. Now it looks like the Celtics could end as high as 6th and have no shot at the guy.
Here's the question about Noah's draft prospects, though: if he plays as hard in the NBA as he did in the tournament his future is no worse than a great role player and decent starter. He's smaller and weaker than most NBA post players, though. If his motor idles back, how fast does his game disappear? Can he maintain the energy when he goes from two games on the weekend followed by five days off to an 82 game season with stretches of four games in five nights?
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A few comments, with a faint theme.
The disparity between UCLA and Florida was less in how they matched up at various positions, and more in how Florida's strengths neutralized what UCLA wanted to do. UCLA had a deeper bench, but never was able to force the tempo to wear Florida out. UCLA plays suffocating defense most of them time, but couldn't take away either the inside game or the outside game because Florida was too balanced.
As for Noah, he will a difference-maker in the pros because he's a player. It's not just about his energy level -- it's about his timing, his grasp of the team game, his unselfishness, and his presence. He flat-out knows how to play.
The disparity between UCLA and Florida was less in how they matched up at various positions, and more in how Florida's strengths neutralized what UCLA wanted to do. UCLA had a deeper bench, but never was able to force the tempo to wear Florida out. UCLA plays suffocating defense most of them time, but couldn't take away either the inside game or the outside game because Florida was too balanced.
Mmmmmm. I can't tell how much we're in agreement here, and using different words to describe the same events, or disagree on what happened last night.
On tempo: If UCLA's plan was to create an up-tempo pressure defense to tire Florida out they failed because Florida played with more energy, and more up-tempo, than UCLA did. Most of the game Florida's big men were sprinting up and down the court. They both got lots of easy baskets off of fast breaks and forced UCLA to settle for outside shots when they were trying to break.
On matchups: the big advantage Florida had was that they shredded UCLA's perimeter defense. While Farmar for UCLA had a decent game on offense he absolutely couldn't keep Green and Humphrey from driving into the lane at will. This led to tons of high percentage shots all around. Florida started most of their offensive sets with high screens and when UCLA adjusted and started trapping the point (Green) to keep him out of the lane he would swing the ball to Noah who has good enough handle that he'd blow by a recovering Hollins or Mata for another drive-and-dunk or drive-and-dish. UCLA's pick-and-roll defense was porous all night.
The reason UCLA wasn't able to play their normal suffocating defense because they were overwhelmed in the individual matchups that good defense requries. UCLA's guards couldn't keep Florida's wing players from driving to the hoop at will; Once Horford or Noah got the ball close to the basket UCLA's big men couldn't keep them from scoring without double teams. UCLA couldn't shut down any of Florida's starters without double teams and since Florida had five starters who were all good passers and dribblers every UCLA double team led to a high-percentage shot for someone else.
Telling stats on defensive superiority:
Florida - 10 blocked shots, 7 steals, 6 turnovers
UCLA - 1 blocked shot, 3 steals, 12 turnovers
As for Noah, he will a difference-maker in the pros because he's a player. It's not just about his energy level -- it's about his timing, his grasp of the team game, his unselfishness, and his presence. He flat-out knows how to play.
Here's my short take on Noah and his prospects for the pro game:
Strengths- great understanding of team offense and defense; gives lots of effort on every play; shows a willingness to do lots of the little things that coaches constantly wish their players would do; compared to NCAA big men has nice handle and can control his dribble under modest pressure defense; is the relatively rare combination of 6'11" with good coordination and body control
Weaknesses - Is too thin and weak to adequately defend starting NBA PFs in the paint; has no offensive game to speak of other than dunks; has a limited track record of success: basically was a non-factor for most of his college career and put together a great tourney; given his lack of conditioning and strength, will probably not be able to maintain high energy play through 82 games and the playoffs.
Summary: Initially will be a 10-15 minutes a night bench player who does well when not playing the other team's starters. Probable ceiling is a decent starter and great complementary player on a team with superior talent. Has a lot of physical and skills development before he can player above-average NBA ball on offense and defense for ~30 minutes a night.
I just noticed that r.m.'s favorite Charley Rosen has this commentary on Noah as part of his break-down of pro prospects at the final four:
Joakim Noah, Florida, 6-11, 227, Soph.
Can do: Run and jump. Take full advantage of his length, his quick hops and good timing to be a big-time shot-blocker when coming from the weak side. Handle, but not as good as he thinks. Secure the ball with his good hands. Show excellent lateral movement.
Can't do: Play with power. Shoot consistently, mainly because he releases the ball on his way up. Play with quickness on offense from a standstill. Go to his left hand.
Must do: Get stronger without losing any quickness. Improve his handle in the attack zone. Develop more offensive options: a drop step, counter moves, duck-under, turnaround-jumpers, fadeaway-jumpers, etc.
Prognosis: Needs to spend long hours in the weight room and vary every aspect of his offense. Has the length and the athleticism to have a good NBA career. Needs at least one more year in school. Has the potential to be a Ty Chandler-type of player — only better.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/5465538
Given that Tyson Chandler is currently an all-rebounding and defense, no-offense, role player this sounds about right.
Only slightly apropos of this thread, the following apparently summerizes Danny Ainge's interview today on EEI:
- Raef’s comments are disturbing. He is wrong; he has been giving many chances to start this seaon.
- Green has come light years on the defensive end. Has been having very good practices.
- Gerald need to be a little more consistent, but you can’t teach what he has. His teammates need to trust him when he is open. Very encouraging is his work ethic, preparation, etc.
- Noah is the flavor of the week, but you have to be careful. The competition he played against was very week.
- We will ask Pierce in the off-season if he wants to talk about a contract extension.
The fact that Noah is the only draft prospect Danny talked about, and he panned him, just increased my internal odds that the Celtics have him pretty high on their draft board.
Unless he said that knowing that I would assume he was lying... so I should clearly drink from the vial in front of you... because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals... so I should clearly drink from the vial in front of me...
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