Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Warning: past performance predicts future results

It's always interesting to see someone go and put numbers to a long-standing belief. Sometimes conventional wisdom is overturned. Sometimes it is confirmed.

It's an old saw that in the NBA only 6~7 teams in the league have a real shot at the championship every year. In no other professional sport does success in the regular season so strongly predict success in the playoffs. In no other support are the gaps between 'good' and 'great' teams so large.

The pleasantly analytical folks over at lowpost.net have created a chart of the aggregate historic playoff results for each seed since 1984. The upshot? If you aren't one of the top 3 teams in your conference you probably won't be playing in the conference finals. If you aren't the best team in your conference, you're a long-shot to even make the finals. Win early and win often or you probably won't win what matters.

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