Note the similarities across offensive categories (except for OBP), and the massive difference in salaries. Then think about Damon's ribs, which are about to put him on the DL. And then think about Crisp's catch of Hudson's gapper last night.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
CF.
A comparison:
Note the similarities across offensive categories (except for OBP), and the massive difference in salaries. Then think about Damon's ribs, which are about to put him on the DL. And then think about Crisp's catch of Hudson's gapper last night.
Note the similarities across offensive categories (except for OBP), and the massive difference in salaries. Then think about Damon's ribs, which are about to put him on the DL. And then think about Crisp's catch of Hudson's gapper last night.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Friday, June 08, 2007
Chad Ford speculates about the Suns
In the middle of some mid-draft rumoring, Chad provides this set of observations about the on-going Yi drama:
A Marion trade along these lines is unlikely, because it would kick the Celtics at least $10M into the luxury tax threshold next year, assuming Al Jefferson signs an extension for something on the order of ~$12M/year.
If such a trade were to go down it would fantastic news, both because Marion is an All Star talent and because it indicates the owners are willing to lose money, short term, in order to win more games.
The Celtics' Danny Ainge traveled to Los Angeles on Wednesday to take a look at Yi Jianlian in a private workout. Yi worked out for nearly two hours in a gym by himself and then spent several hours with Ainge.
The same drill was repeated on Thursday with the Atlanta Hawks GM Billy Knight. On Saturday the Bulls will get a look at Yi.
The feedback from the workouts has been positive. Yi looks great in that environment. The question is whether he has the toughness to play that way when you put nine other players on the floor.
Next, Yi's camp will sit back and gauge feedback. If none of those teams commit to drafting Yi, then Sacramento likely will be the next team to visit.
If Boston is passing on Yi, I think that means we might see a trade coming. There's talk that the Suns -- to slash payroll -- might be willing to take the No. 5 pick, Theo Ratliff's expiring contract and Delonte West for Shawn Marion. That would make Paul Pierce happy.
With the No. 5 pick, the Suns could replace Marion with Yi, Jeff Green or Al Thornton. In the Suns' system, all three of those guys could play the four.
Another dark horse in the Yi sweepstakes might be Portland, which is trying to get another top 10 draft pick. As I've mentioned before, the Bulls seem like a possible trading partner, with Zach Randolph involved
A Marion trade along these lines is unlikely, because it would kick the Celtics at least $10M into the luxury tax threshold next year, assuming Al Jefferson signs an extension for something on the order of ~$12M/year.
If such a trade were to go down it would fantastic news, both because Marion is an All Star talent and because it indicates the owners are willing to lose money, short term, in order to win more games.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Pride and joy and greed and sex, That's what makes our town the best.
Does Kevin Youkilis shatter more bats than the next fellow?
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Fenway Park West.
It's in Oaktown:
Bruce Jenkins in the SF Chronicle.Some of the A's younger players had to be shocked at the sight of it, let alone the sound. It was the bottom of the ninth inning Monday night. A promising threat had suddenly died on Bobby Crosby's double-play grounder, forcing extra innings. And the place went absolutely nuts. Sheer bedlam among the 20,000-odd fans still in attendance.
Pro-Boston crowds have been a staple in Oakland since the A's moved west in 1968, just a year after Jim Lonborg and Carl Yastrzemski carried the Red Sox into the World Series, but this was radical. This might as well have been Fenway. There can't be another fan base in the country, at any level, where the sentiment shifts so thoroughly for an opposing team based some 3,000 miles away.
Fix the Celtics, part 2
Don't like big, elaborate trade proposals that involve multiple teams and have close to no chance of ever happening? Here's a less complicated trade proposal that makes the Celtics significantly better next year
Background: the trade stems from the persistent rumors that the Utah Jazz are looking to move Andre Kirilenko. AK is several years removed from his insane peak when he led the Jazz in basically every statistical category and became the second player in NBA history to be top 5 in the league in both steals and blocks (first: David Robinson). At the time AK was both an All Star and voted to the All-NBA defensive team. Since that time the Jazz gave him a max contract (currently four more years at ~$15M per) and then signed someone who plays his same position. To say that AK has struggled since the team moved him to SF upon the arrival of Carlos Boozer is an understatement. His play has declined, his stats are way down across the board, and everyone in the league believes he's frustrated as hell. It’s a sign of the team’s respect for him that they thought he could shift positions without missing a beat, but in retrospect it’s obviously been a big failure.
AK appears to be the walking definition of a player who needs a change of scenery. He's clearly a PF, although one that can play away from the basket on offense and defense. His relationship with Jerry Sloan and the Jazz front office may be permanently damaged after what AK seems to consider two years of mistreatment. The latest rumors are that a good faction of the locker room (Boozer, Deron Williams, Derek Fischer) don't like him personally are would be happy to see him gone. Unfortunately for Utah this is a summer when teams will be holding out to try and trade for lots of big names (KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Gasol, Ray Allen, etc). The buyers in the trade market are likely to put AK well down their wish lists. Regardless of what Utah wants, they're going to have to settle for what they can get.
When AK was playing well he was the greatest example in the last decade of a player who can dramatically influence the game without needing the ball in his hands. Think of a more talented and productive Dennis Rodman without the crazy. If he played at 80% of his peak in Boston he'd be a huge addition between Jefferson at C and Pierce at PF.
Boston gives - Wally Szczerbiak, Gerald Green, #31
Boston gets - Andre Kirilenko
Utah gives - Kirilenko
Utah gets - Szczerbiak, Green, #31
Why for Utah: AK takes up a huge part of their salary cap and hasn't made the shift to SF they way they hoped. Now there appear to be rifts developing between him, his teammates and the coaching staff. Wally and Gerald give them two natural SFs, one for now and one for later. Wally’s no more than an average-starting SF at this point, but so was Kirilenko playing out of position the last two years. Wally's contract comes off the books in two years, just when Utah will need to resign Deron Williams. The Jazz save ~$35M total on the deal, which should make their car salesman owner happy.
Why for Boston: Along with this deal the Celtics sit on the #5 pick and take Corey Brewer. A lineup of AK, Brewer and Rondo would be incredibly disruptive defensively with plenty of efficient scoring from Jefferson and Pierce. Under Doc 'I don't know what the hell I'm doing, do I have any time before the game to figure it out?' Rivers, AK would be free to run all over the court and wreck havoc. If the Celtics believe they can get Brewer later in the top 10 they could explore trading down with Minnesota (Trenton Hassell) or Chicago (Chris Duhon/Thabo Sefolosha) to get another good-defensive vet win or backup PG for roster balance and depth.
Extra bonus trade variant: If this trade for a plus-defending vet All Star doesn't work out there's always version 2.0: Ron Artest. The Kings have all but printed press releases stating that Artest will be moved this summer. The number of teams willing to take him on will likely fall somewhere between none and almost none. Sadly, this probably includes the Celtics since our ownership seems more concerned with good behavior then actually winning games. At the same time, if the Cs are going to get better they need to be prepared to take calculated risks. Nobody is going to offer them a vet All Star for nothing. Artest’s contract and on-court play are both incredibly attractive. His price will likely be even less than AK's. Even if we consummated a deal with Utah, I'd consider moving Theo Ratliff's expiring and insurance-paid deal for Artest and filler.
Ron-ron is a loose canon on the best of days. He's also only got two years left on a very reasonable contract and still as productive (although much less popular with voters) as when he was an All Star and All-NBA defensive player.
The roster below does some serious damage in the East, combining one of the best half-court defensive rotations in the league with inside-out scoring
The 07-08 Celtics
1 – Rondo, Duhon?
2/3 - Pierce, Artest, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Delonte West
4/5 - Jefferson, AK, Gomes, Perkins
Background: the trade stems from the persistent rumors that the Utah Jazz are looking to move Andre Kirilenko. AK is several years removed from his insane peak when he led the Jazz in basically every statistical category and became the second player in NBA history to be top 5 in the league in both steals and blocks (first: David Robinson). At the time AK was both an All Star and voted to the All-NBA defensive team. Since that time the Jazz gave him a max contract (currently four more years at ~$15M per) and then signed someone who plays his same position. To say that AK has struggled since the team moved him to SF upon the arrival of Carlos Boozer is an understatement. His play has declined, his stats are way down across the board, and everyone in the league believes he's frustrated as hell. It’s a sign of the team’s respect for him that they thought he could shift positions without missing a beat, but in retrospect it’s obviously been a big failure.
AK appears to be the walking definition of a player who needs a change of scenery. He's clearly a PF, although one that can play away from the basket on offense and defense. His relationship with Jerry Sloan and the Jazz front office may be permanently damaged after what AK seems to consider two years of mistreatment. The latest rumors are that a good faction of the locker room (Boozer, Deron Williams, Derek Fischer) don't like him personally are would be happy to see him gone. Unfortunately for Utah this is a summer when teams will be holding out to try and trade for lots of big names (KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Gasol, Ray Allen, etc). The buyers in the trade market are likely to put AK well down their wish lists. Regardless of what Utah wants, they're going to have to settle for what they can get.
When AK was playing well he was the greatest example in the last decade of a player who can dramatically influence the game without needing the ball in his hands. Think of a more talented and productive Dennis Rodman without the crazy. If he played at 80% of his peak in Boston he'd be a huge addition between Jefferson at C and Pierce at PF.
Boston gives - Wally Szczerbiak, Gerald Green, #31
Boston gets - Andre Kirilenko
Utah gives - Kirilenko
Utah gets - Szczerbiak, Green, #31
Why for Utah: AK takes up a huge part of their salary cap and hasn't made the shift to SF they way they hoped. Now there appear to be rifts developing between him, his teammates and the coaching staff. Wally and Gerald give them two natural SFs, one for now and one for later. Wally’s no more than an average-starting SF at this point, but so was Kirilenko playing out of position the last two years. Wally's contract comes off the books in two years, just when Utah will need to resign Deron Williams. The Jazz save ~$35M total on the deal, which should make their car salesman owner happy.
Why for Boston: Along with this deal the Celtics sit on the #5 pick and take Corey Brewer. A lineup of AK, Brewer and Rondo would be incredibly disruptive defensively with plenty of efficient scoring from Jefferson and Pierce. Under Doc 'I don't know what the hell I'm doing, do I have any time before the game to figure it out?' Rivers, AK would be free to run all over the court and wreck havoc. If the Celtics believe they can get Brewer later in the top 10 they could explore trading down with Minnesota (Trenton Hassell) or Chicago (Chris Duhon/Thabo Sefolosha) to get another good-defensive vet win or backup PG for roster balance and depth.
Extra bonus trade variant: If this trade for a plus-defending vet All Star doesn't work out there's always version 2.0: Ron Artest. The Kings have all but printed press releases stating that Artest will be moved this summer. The number of teams willing to take him on will likely fall somewhere between none and almost none. Sadly, this probably includes the Celtics since our ownership seems more concerned with good behavior then actually winning games. At the same time, if the Cs are going to get better they need to be prepared to take calculated risks. Nobody is going to offer them a vet All Star for nothing. Artest’s contract and on-court play are both incredibly attractive. His price will likely be even less than AK's. Even if we consummated a deal with Utah, I'd consider moving Theo Ratliff's expiring and insurance-paid deal for Artest and filler.
Ron-ron is a loose canon on the best of days. He's also only got two years left on a very reasonable contract and still as productive (although much less popular with voters) as when he was an All Star and All-NBA defensive player.
The roster below does some serious damage in the East, combining one of the best half-court defensive rotations in the league with inside-out scoring
The 07-08 Celtics
1 – Rondo, Duhon?
2/3 - Pierce, Artest, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Delonte West
4/5 - Jefferson, AK, Gomes, Perkins
Monday, June 04, 2007
Fix the Celtics, part 1
With all the complaining I've been doing the last 12-18 months, you'd think I would step up at some point and propose what ought to be done differently. Consider this a post towards that end.
This scenario presumes that Kevin Garnett has already picked this summer to force his way out of Minnesota, and that the Lakers are finally motivated enough by Kobe to close the deal. In this case, the Celtics help facilitate the trade and come away with some improvements that hold less value to the other teams.
BOS gives - #5, #31, MN's future first-round pick, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Veal, Powe
BOS gets - #19, Lamar Odom, Trenton Hassell
LAL gives - #19, '08 #1, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown
LAL gets - #31, Kevin Garnett, Mike James, Delonte West, Leon Powe
MN gives - Kevin Garnett, Mike James, Trenton Hassell
MN gets - #5, LA 08#1, MN pick, Andrew Bynum, Wally Szczerbiak, Kwame Brown, Veal
According to the ESPN trade machine, the salaries work.
Why for MN: If they're trading KG then the TWolves presumptive motivation will be to move some of their other long-term contracts, pick up picks to rebuild with, and retain some positive angle they can sell to ticket holders. In this deal MN manages to ditch two contracts (Mike James, Trenton Hassell) they've already decided to replace with younger players already on the roster (Foye, McCants). In return they get back a young lottery-talent big (Bynum), the #5 for their rumored binky Yi Jianlian, and three other draft picks. By many accounts Wally remains incredibly popular with casual basketball fans in the twin cities, providing the team with a marketing tool on a short contract. Kwame expires at the end of the year.
Why for LA: KG and Mike James help Kobe win now. Delonte is an outside-shooting guard, in the Steve Kerr mold, well suited for the triangle offense. Leon Powe provides some throw-in front-court bench depth. They can use the #31 to try and get another backup PF/C or use it in a package for someone like Nazr Mohammed. With Kobe and KG the Lakers are instant contenders out West and will have a long line of veterans willing to take short money to fill in the gaps in the roster.
Why for the Celtics: The only thing of real value the Celtic give up is the #5 pick. In return, Lamar Odom provides a great high-post complement to Jefferson on the front line and gives the Celtics someone other than Pierce to run our half-court offense through. He takes pressure off Rondo by drawing his defender away from the basket and playing the role of top-of-the-key decision-maker that that Blount and Raef filled rather ably while here. Trenton Hassell increases from zero to one the number of athletic veterans on the team who can defend multiple wing positions. He immediately relieves Pierce from spending the whole game carrying our offense while also chasing the other team's best scorer around the perimeter. With the #19 pick we take the best player available, potentially a PG prospect like Javaris Crittendon or a wing slider like Thad Young.
New Celtics lineup
starters
1 - Rondo
2/3 - Pierce, Hassell
4/5 - Jefferson, Odom
bench
1 -
2/3 - Allen, Green
4/5 - Gomes, Perk
add a vet PG signing with the LLE to spell Rondo (Chucky Atkins?) plus with the #19: Crittenton? Young?
With Pierce/Odom/Jefferson the Celtics have a front line that should be able to score consistently on anyone in the East. Rondo/Hassell/Allen/Perk should complement them with enough defense to slow down all but the best of opponents. In the East that doesn't take much. That looks to me like a 45-50 win team likely good for second-round of the playoffs
This scenario presumes that Kevin Garnett has already picked this summer to force his way out of Minnesota, and that the Lakers are finally motivated enough by Kobe to close the deal. In this case, the Celtics help facilitate the trade and come away with some improvements that hold less value to the other teams.
BOS gives - #5, #31, MN's future first-round pick, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Veal, Powe
BOS gets - #19, Lamar Odom, Trenton Hassell
LAL gives - #19, '08 #1, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown
LAL gets - #31, Kevin Garnett, Mike James, Delonte West, Leon Powe
MN gives - Kevin Garnett, Mike James, Trenton Hassell
MN gets - #5, LA 08#1, MN pick, Andrew Bynum, Wally Szczerbiak, Kwame Brown, Veal
According to the ESPN trade machine, the salaries work.
Why for MN: If they're trading KG then the TWolves presumptive motivation will be to move some of their other long-term contracts, pick up picks to rebuild with, and retain some positive angle they can sell to ticket holders. In this deal MN manages to ditch two contracts (Mike James, Trenton Hassell) they've already decided to replace with younger players already on the roster (Foye, McCants). In return they get back a young lottery-talent big (Bynum), the #5 for their rumored binky Yi Jianlian, and three other draft picks. By many accounts Wally remains incredibly popular with casual basketball fans in the twin cities, providing the team with a marketing tool on a short contract. Kwame expires at the end of the year.
Why for LA: KG and Mike James help Kobe win now. Delonte is an outside-shooting guard, in the Steve Kerr mold, well suited for the triangle offense. Leon Powe provides some throw-in front-court bench depth. They can use the #31 to try and get another backup PF/C or use it in a package for someone like Nazr Mohammed. With Kobe and KG the Lakers are instant contenders out West and will have a long line of veterans willing to take short money to fill in the gaps in the roster.
Why for the Celtics: The only thing of real value the Celtic give up is the #5 pick. In return, Lamar Odom provides a great high-post complement to Jefferson on the front line and gives the Celtics someone other than Pierce to run our half-court offense through. He takes pressure off Rondo by drawing his defender away from the basket and playing the role of top-of-the-key decision-maker that that Blount and Raef filled rather ably while here. Trenton Hassell increases from zero to one the number of athletic veterans on the team who can defend multiple wing positions. He immediately relieves Pierce from spending the whole game carrying our offense while also chasing the other team's best scorer around the perimeter. With the #19 pick we take the best player available, potentially a PG prospect like Javaris Crittendon or a wing slider like Thad Young.
New Celtics lineup
starters
1 - Rondo
2/3 - Pierce, Hassell
4/5 - Jefferson, Odom
bench
1 -
2/3 - Allen, Green
4/5 - Gomes, Perk
add a vet PG signing with the LLE to spell Rondo (Chucky Atkins?) plus with the #19: Crittenton? Young?
With Pierce/Odom/Jefferson the Celtics have a front line that should be able to score consistently on anyone in the East. Rondo/Hassell/Allen/Perk should complement them with enough defense to slow down all but the best of opponents. In the East that doesn't take much. That looks to me like a 45-50 win team likely good for second-round of the playoffs
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Jackie goes multimedia
The text is largely from the piece MacMullan wrote the other day, but this slideshow adds photos to all the lousy moves the team has made in the last decade.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Jackie weighs in
Jackie MacMullan provides her first post-lottery commentary with the rather appropriate message: suck it up
Well put
Boston is cursed, all right -- with bad decisions. The blame can be shared among many. Former CEO Dave Gavitt drafted Earl. M.L. Carr presided over the Montross years. Pitino hastily dumped Billups and a list of others. Wallace pulled the trigger on the Baker deal. Even the master, Red Auerbach, erred by insisting on drafting Smith in 1989 and Joseph Forte in 2001.
Every team makes mistakes. Yet Boston's peers have recovered much quicker.
The Lakers, dominant in the '80s alongside the Celtics, won three additional titles from 2000-02. The Detroit Pistons won back-to-back championships in '89 and '90, reloaded, and won again in 2004, thanks, in part, to the Celtics, who arranged a three-way deal that delivered Rasheed Wallace to the Pistons and netted Boston Chucky Atkins and a draft pick.
After Michael Jordan retired, the Bulls endured rocky moments, but made it to the Eastern Conference semifinals this season and are encouraged by a young nucleus that includes Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Kirk Hinrich.
The Celtics have a young nucleus, too. Danny Ainge's finest moment was in the 2004 draft, when he grabbed Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen, all in the first round.
But Ainge's questionable trades have hampered his team. The addition of Wally Szczerbiak left Boston with a high-salaried, injury-prone shooter whose game is incompatible with that of Pierce's and makes the Celtics dangerously deficient on the defensive end.
Ainge's fascination with Sebastian Telfair has been disastrous. He acquired him from Portland along with Theo Ratliff and traded Raef LaFrentz, Dan Dickau, and the No. 7 pick, which turned out to be Brandon Roy, who, in case you missed it, was Rookie of the Year this season.
Roy went to Secaucus this week to represent Portland in the draft lottery. His team had a 5.3 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and he brought it home.
You might say Roy is a very lucky young man.
You might believe the Celtics are cursed for passing on him, then watching him win the Oden sweepstakes for his team.
But good teams don't rely on luck. They make their own luck.
It's long past the time for the Boston Celtics to do just that.
Well put
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Let's not talk about the NBA draft.
Some fun with Excel.
Here are the teams in AL, ranked by winning percentage:
BOS 0.689
CLE 0.643
DET 0.614
LAA 0.609
CWS 0.537
OAK 0.500
SEA 0.488
MIN 0.467
NYY 0.455
TOR 0.455
BAL 0.444
TAM 0.409
TEX 0.391
KAN 0.378
Now, here are the teams ranked by runs scored/runs allowed differential:
BOS 241 165 76
LAA 211 169 42
OAK 200 163 37
CLE 233 197 36
DET 240 211 29
NYY 236 209 27
MIN 204 202 2
TOR 201 206 -5
CWS 168 182 -14
BAL 192 207 -15
SEA 180 203 -23
TEX 232 257 -25
KAN 183 227 -44
TAM 195 262 -67
And now, here are the AL teams ranked by the degree to which they're outperforming their differential:
CWS 0.075
CLE 0.052
DET 0.045
SEA 0.045
TAM 0.037
LAA -0.015
BAL -0.020
KAN -0.025
TOR -0.033
MIN -0.038
BOS -0.041
TEX -0.060
NYY -0.110
OAK -0.113
Got that? Based solely on runs scored and allowed, the Red Sox should be winning even more games. But so should the Yankees and A's.
Here are the teams in AL, ranked by winning percentage:
BOS 0.689
CLE 0.643
DET 0.614
LAA 0.609
CWS 0.537
OAK 0.500
SEA 0.488
MIN 0.467
NYY 0.455
TOR 0.455
BAL 0.444
TAM 0.409
TEX 0.391
KAN 0.378
Now, here are the teams ranked by runs scored/runs allowed differential:
BOS 241 165 76
LAA 211 169 42
OAK 200 163 37
CLE 233 197 36
DET 240 211 29
NYY 236 209 27
MIN 204 202 2
TOR 201 206 -5
CWS 168 182 -14
BAL 192 207 -15
SEA 180 203 -23
TEX 232 257 -25
KAN 183 227 -44
TAM 195 262 -67
And now, here are the AL teams ranked by the degree to which they're outperforming their differential:
CWS 0.075
CLE 0.052
DET 0.045
SEA 0.045
TAM 0.037
LAA -0.015
BAL -0.020
KAN -0.025
TOR -0.033
MIN -0.038
BOS -0.041
TEX -0.060
NYY -0.110
OAK -0.113
Got that? Based solely on runs scored and allowed, the Red Sox should be winning even more games. But so should the Yankees and A's.
What a miserable night
Having gone through this with Duncan ten years ago, we now get to go through it again with Oden and Durant.
Can we finally fire Ainge?
Which of the following odds are now greater:
- Pierce demands a trade this summer, his value tanks, the Celtics are forced to move him for pennies on the dollar (e.g. Corey Maggette and drek), and we're all handicapping the odds of drafting OJ Mayo in twelve months
- Ainge drafts the Chinese Darko Milicic with the 5th pick and we watch him turn into a borderline starter at the only position where we already have an above-average young player
Why am I still a Celtics fan? How much abuse do we get to take before this turns around?
Can we finally fire Ainge?
Which of the following odds are now greater:
- Pierce demands a trade this summer, his value tanks, the Celtics are forced to move him for pennies on the dollar (e.g. Corey Maggette and drek), and we're all handicapping the odds of drafting OJ Mayo in twelve months
- Ainge drafts the Chinese Darko Milicic with the 5th pick and we watch him turn into a borderline starter at the only position where we already have an above-average young player
Why am I still a Celtics fan? How much abuse do we get to take before this turns around?
Thursday, May 10, 2007
So, what qualifies as failure?
This last season Doc Rivers led the Celtics to the second-worst record in franchise history, oversaw a franchise-record 18 game losing streak, failed to implement anything like a coherent offensive scheme for yet another year, ran a team that played lousy defense most nights and failed to significantly develop any young player other than Al Jefferson.
So the team gives him an extension.
I'm really curious here: what would be grounds for getting fired?
When Pete Carroll was fired from the Patriots, Bob Kraft stood up at a semi-emotional press conference and spent the entire time talking about how much he admired Carroll as a person and as a coach. 80% of what came out of his mouth was positive things about Carroll. But he also said very clearly: this is a result-based, accountability business and the Patriots had put together three straight years of declining win totals. Kraft made it clear: if you don't deliver the results, you're gone.
The Celtics just finished their third straight year of declining win totals, with this last being a historic train wreck. Who is accountable? I gather the team doesn't consider the coach responsible for the team's performance, since they just extended him.
Here's an easy prediction: conspiracy theorists will say this was Doc's pre-arranged reward for throwing games this season and increasing the team's lottery chances. The sad thing is that this almost casts ownership in a better light than the alternative.
So the team gives him an extension.
I'm really curious here: what would be grounds for getting fired?
When Pete Carroll was fired from the Patriots, Bob Kraft stood up at a semi-emotional press conference and spent the entire time talking about how much he admired Carroll as a person and as a coach. 80% of what came out of his mouth was positive things about Carroll. But he also said very clearly: this is a result-based, accountability business and the Patriots had put together three straight years of declining win totals. Kraft made it clear: if you don't deliver the results, you're gone.
The Celtics just finished their third straight year of declining win totals, with this last being a historic train wreck. Who is accountable? I gather the team doesn't consider the coach responsible for the team's performance, since they just extended him.
Here's an easy prediction: conspiracy theorists will say this was Doc's pre-arranged reward for throwing games this season and increasing the team's lottery chances. The sad thing is that this almost casts ownership in a better light than the alternative.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Hey, thank god we have Tony Allen
Two and a half years ago the Celtics were close to closing on a trade with the New Orleans Hornets for All Star PG Baron Davis, a close friend of Paul Pierce's since their days playing AAU ball together as kids. By all accounts the team balked at the prospect of taking on Davis' uninsured max contract and bad knees, not wanting to pay big bucks for a guard that only gave you an average of 55 games a year. So instead of swapping Tony Allen and expiring contracts for Davis we did a seperate deal with the Atlanta Hawks to bring back Antoine Walker for a two-month rental and first-round playoff elimination.
Davis may rarely play a full season any more, but when he does play he's pretty impressive. Baron has been abusing Jason Terry and Devin Harris all series, and has #8 seed Golden State up 3-1 over the team with the best regular-season record in the league. Baron is playing like he could win the matchup with most guards in the league from a wheelchair, and from this living room looks like easily the best player on either team in the series (specifically including the Mavs' supposed MVP candidate).
As for the Celtics, they decided to tie up salary equal to Baron's in such healthy, productive vets as Brian Scalanbrine and Wally Sczcerbiak. So at least we got that going for us.
Davis may rarely play a full season any more, but when he does play he's pretty impressive. Baron has been abusing Jason Terry and Devin Harris all series, and has #8 seed Golden State up 3-1 over the team with the best regular-season record in the league. Baron is playing like he could win the matchup with most guards in the league from a wheelchair, and from this living room looks like easily the best player on either team in the series (specifically including the Mavs' supposed MVP candidate).
As for the Celtics, they decided to tie up salary equal to Baron's in such healthy, productive vets as Brian Scalanbrine and Wally Sczcerbiak. So at least we got that going for us.
See you in Foxborough
To summarize: the Patriots traded Deion Branch to Seattle in exchange for moving up four spots in the first round (#28 to #24), a first round selection next year (from the mediocre 49ers; likely middle-top of the first round) and Randy Moss.
Legalized robbery.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
It's the pitching, stupid.
A glance at the standings tonight reflects that the Red Sox have surrendered 73 runs, the least of an American League team and trailing only the Mets and Giants. While the season is still young, this seems like a very good sign.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Uncoordinated but identical criticism
Was it only three and four years ago that I was regularly criticizing Peter May for being overly critical of Ainge while being sloppy with the facts? It's a sign of how far things have come that we're now largely in agreement on the former. This from this morning's basketball notes column:
There has been a sometime chorus of Celtics loyalists in Boston this winter repeating different versions of 'when the best players on your team get injured you're bound to lose a lot of games'. In addition to the examples May mentions above, there is the obvious counter-example of the 2004-05 Indiana Pacers, a team that lost their two best players (Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest) for much of the season and still won 44 games and made the second round of the playoffs.
What does it say about Ainge that-- four years into his management of the team-- when the only player he didn't add to the roster (Pierce) goes down with an injury the remainder of the roster plummets to a record-setting awful record?
A healthy disregard for the facts
Revisionist history is already in full force in Boston. The comments that the Celtics would have made the playoffs "had they been healthy" are almost laughable.
First, every team has injuries, and it's the playoff-caliber teams that respond to that that make the playoffs. Consider that Houston went 20-12 without Yao Ming or that Miami went 16-7 without Dwyane Wade. The Rockets and Heat are going to the playoffs. The Celtics went 4-31 without Paul Pierce. That's astonishing. (Actually, they went 4-29 and threw two others.) Atlanta won twice as many games without Joe Johnson.
And, yes, other guys got hurt, too. But other guys got hurt in Memphis, which went 5-22 without Pau Gasol. And other guys got hurt in Milwaukee, which went 3-17 without Michael Redd. Those teams aren't trying to rewrite history and claiming they'd be playoff teams had they stayed healthy.
It's all part of the "Yeah, But We Really Weren't That Bad" spin. This was, at best, a mid- to high-30-win team. The Celtics were 10-14 after the Golden State game in which Pierce got hurt, having played the easiest schedule in the league. Their much-ballyhooed five-game winning streak had come against the Nets, Knicks, Sixers, pre-Allen Iverson Nuggets, and Bobcats. They had yet to play a single road game against a Western Conference team. They had yet to play Miami. They had lost to Memphis at home.
If you want to believe the Celtics, fine. If you want to believe they can bring back the same team next year and make the playoffs, fine. Maybe they can. But the team this year wasn't good enough, healthy or otherwise, and they should admit it.
There has been a sometime chorus of Celtics loyalists in Boston this winter repeating different versions of 'when the best players on your team get injured you're bound to lose a lot of games'. In addition to the examples May mentions above, there is the obvious counter-example of the 2004-05 Indiana Pacers, a team that lost their two best players (Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest) for much of the season and still won 44 games and made the second round of the playoffs.
What does it say about Ainge that-- four years into his management of the team-- when the only player he didn't add to the roster (Pierce) goes down with an injury the remainder of the roster plummets to a record-setting awful record?
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Grading the Celtics
To borrow a device from Steve Bulpett's end-of-year story in the Herald, here are individual grades for the different players on the team. Is this exactly aligned with the way the team is depicted in the previous post? No, because I'm grading different players to different standards. If you don't like it, make your own ranking.
Paul Pierce: A Still the man
Al Jefferson: A- Last year at this time there were serious questions about almost every aspect of Al's game: could he stay in shape and out of foul trouble enough to play 35 minutes a night? Could he get good enough at individual and team defense to not be a huge liability at that end of the court? When would he learn more than the two low-post moves that he went to every time? A year later he's put all these questions and others to rest. He's been averaging 18/12 with a 55% FG% since the All Star break and has been rock solid consistent for the last 80% of the season. The number of 21-year-old low post players who have put up his kind of numbers and not gone on to multiple All Star games is exactly zero. How he responds after his big contract extension is as important to this franchise as what happens on May 22. We need something close to a best case scenario out of both
Rajon Rondo: B Played about as well as I can imagine any rookie PG playing not at the Kidd/Bibby/Isiah/Chris Paul level. Hollinger recently rated him the second-bast defensive PG in the league, the only rookie to sniff that list. We all knew coming in he couldn't shoot. Yet he ended the year with a 42% FG%, which is on par with a lot of starting PGs. If his biggest weakness long term ends up being that he's average at something, the future is bright
Kendrick Perkins: B- Still the same basic physical package of athletic abilities and limitations which make him a perfect roster fit for the 1992-4 New York Knicks. A wide-shouldered, slow-footed bruiser who's future floor is probably a moderately better Etan Thomas. The encouraging news here is that he signed an extremely reasonable contract (4/$16M) and promptly 1) played hard all year, 2) played through foot injuries the visibly limited his reaction times and leaping ability, 3) showed better low-post moves on offense (even if he still has no touch) and 4) played very effective defense against some of the best big men in the league: Garnett, Duncan, JO'Neal, Howard. His work ethic, commitment and improved skills on both ends make me far more encouraged for his future than the short-term injuries. The guys is only 21. In optimistic moments like this one I'm still expecting him to be a good starting-quality NBA center in a few years
Delonte West: C+ You have to be a little dead not to root for Delonte-- a very intelligent and constantly hustling player. That said, he is what he is. His game has not improved in any noticeable way in the last three years. He can't play the traditional point guard role, since he's too slow-footed to create dribble penetration and has absolutely no right hand at all. Nor can he create his own shot against a decent defender, which is close to a non-negotiable for starting NBA SGs. He's both small and slow enough to be a defensive liability against quicker point guards and taller, more athletic shooting guards. His FG% last year (playing off double-teams of Pierce and Davis) was one of the best in the league among PGs. His FG% this year was close to the worst in the league for SGs. His ideal role on a good team is most likely a 10-15mpg stand-still shooter off the bench. Unfortunately, he's looked his worst in his career when asked to play fewer minutes behind people like Payton and Sczcerbiak. Needs to play better in short minutes. Needs to shoot better. Needs to settle for a Perk-esque, sub-MLE contract
Ryan Gomes: C+ See Delonte. The best players in the league do multiple things very well. The role players who stick for ten years often have a single exemplary skill (Bruce Bowen: defense; Kyle Korver: shooting; etc) that earns their place in a rotation. Gomes is decent at every aspect of basketball but really good at nothing. If he can add a three-point shot, defend SFs better on the perimeter and/or defend PFs better in the paint, then his value goes up. Currently on track for a solid, Kenny Thomas-like career (someone else who has only ever started on lottery teams)
Wally Sczcerbiak: C Played lousy team basketball all year, even when he wasn't injured. Invariably looked for his own shot, despite shooting like crap. Seemed to believe he could do things like take good NBA perimeter defenders off the dribble. Mugged for the camera after every made FG, waving his arms and yelling at his team-mates as if he was the only guy who was trying. An absolute turnstile on defense. Showed signs of either a very low BBIQ, megalomania, or both. The word around Boston is that he is a complete ahole as a teammate. Completely failed at his one job: playing well and staying healthy so that he'd have some trade value this off season. If it wasn't for his talent and experience he'd be graded lower. Wally is a perfect checklist for everything that Boston sports journalists traditionally despise in a pro basketball player, except that he's white and looks like a GQ model
Brian Scalibrine: C One of the few post-rookie-deal players on the squad who actually played up to his contract. Since this is Veal's ceiling, consider this grade a compliment and a sign of appreciation for a relatively good season. When Brian Scalibrine is your over-achieving vet and arguably your best acquisition in recent years, your team is in lots of trouble.
Tony Allen: C- Before his potential career-ending injury, his best run of play this year showed he could be the #1 perimeter offensive option on a horrible team. This will be very helpful for him 1) if he can get his NCAA eligibility reinstated, or 2) in Greece. He played the worst basketball of his career (selfish, dumb, inconsistent) early in the season before the better players around him got injured. If he can come back healthy can he play effectively as the forth option with Pierce, Jefferson and Wally? Will he still accept a role as defensive stopper and role player off the bench? If so, he'd have some value
Leon Powe: D+ Borderline NBA player. Small PF who can't play away from the basket at all. Hustles constantly, which allows him to look good in games when nobody on the other team cares at all or bothers with things like boxing out. Good guy to have around if you're trying to keep some fans entertained while throwing games
Gerald Green: D This year he was only the worst player on the court most nights. Last year he wasn't even very good by NBADL standards. Right now his ceiling is probably somebody like Rashard Lewis, another athletic phenom with a fantastic outside shot who went from high school to the pros and took several years to learn how to play basketball. A more likely comp is probably something close to the next Jamal Crawford: a player who can put up a ton of points in a hurry when his shot is falling but who contributes absolutely nothing and is easily the worst player on the court when its not. Gerald may be severely learning disabled, or there may be other reason why at age 21 he still looks completely lost trying to play team basketball. Friends with season tickets this year have told me that Doc, the assistant coaches and his teammates spend almost every play telling Gerald where to go and what to do. His biggest strength is supposedly shooting and yet his FG% was close to the worst among NBA SGs
Bassy Telfair: D- Barely an NBA player. Appears sincerely interested in playing team basketball, only he's not good at it. Is very encouraging of the rest of the team from the bench. Needs to stop giving interviews
Allan Ray: F I feel a little bad giving someone a low grade because a lousy team gave them a shot. Does not have a single skill that is NBA quality: can't shoot, lousy handle, awful perimeter defender, no apparent ability to recognize when teammates have a better shot and make the appropriate pass. After watching a couple weeks of preseason games I couldn't believe he was still on the team. I still can't.
Michael Olowokandi: A+ Anyone with 'Kandi's career who can still talk an NBA team into signing him to guaranteed money is clearly a brilliant brilliant motherfucker. Normally, a big man in a contract year will need to play well in a playoff series or two before a dumb team will throw money at them. 'Kandi broke a sweat in exactly two preseason games. I love that the second the team needed him to play actual minutes he came up with a random abdomen injury (he supposedly strained a stomach muscle shifting gears while driving) so he could spend the rest of the season watching TV from his beach pavilion in the Caribbean. Hands down the smartest, most successful person associated with the 06-07 Boston Celtics
Doc Rivers: C+ Not great. Not horrible. Spent another season taking chicken shit and experimenting with different poorly thought-through recipes for chicken salad that he'd then consistently botch when preparing
Clifford Ray: B+ Don't know how much credit he gets for Jefferson, but if he's responsible for even 10% of the improvement we've seen he should get an immediate 10-year extension
Danny Ainge: F See above
Paul Pierce: A Still the man
Al Jefferson: A- Last year at this time there were serious questions about almost every aspect of Al's game: could he stay in shape and out of foul trouble enough to play 35 minutes a night? Could he get good enough at individual and team defense to not be a huge liability at that end of the court? When would he learn more than the two low-post moves that he went to every time? A year later he's put all these questions and others to rest. He's been averaging 18/12 with a 55% FG% since the All Star break and has been rock solid consistent for the last 80% of the season. The number of 21-year-old low post players who have put up his kind of numbers and not gone on to multiple All Star games is exactly zero. How he responds after his big contract extension is as important to this franchise as what happens on May 22. We need something close to a best case scenario out of both
Rajon Rondo: B Played about as well as I can imagine any rookie PG playing not at the Kidd/Bibby/Isiah/Chris Paul level. Hollinger recently rated him the second-bast defensive PG in the league, the only rookie to sniff that list. We all knew coming in he couldn't shoot. Yet he ended the year with a 42% FG%, which is on par with a lot of starting PGs. If his biggest weakness long term ends up being that he's average at something, the future is bright
Kendrick Perkins: B- Still the same basic physical package of athletic abilities and limitations which make him a perfect roster fit for the 1992-4 New York Knicks. A wide-shouldered, slow-footed bruiser who's future floor is probably a moderately better Etan Thomas. The encouraging news here is that he signed an extremely reasonable contract (4/$16M) and promptly 1) played hard all year, 2) played through foot injuries the visibly limited his reaction times and leaping ability, 3) showed better low-post moves on offense (even if he still has no touch) and 4) played very effective defense against some of the best big men in the league: Garnett, Duncan, JO'Neal, Howard. His work ethic, commitment and improved skills on both ends make me far more encouraged for his future than the short-term injuries. The guys is only 21. In optimistic moments like this one I'm still expecting him to be a good starting-quality NBA center in a few years
Delonte West: C+ You have to be a little dead not to root for Delonte-- a very intelligent and constantly hustling player. That said, he is what he is. His game has not improved in any noticeable way in the last three years. He can't play the traditional point guard role, since he's too slow-footed to create dribble penetration and has absolutely no right hand at all. Nor can he create his own shot against a decent defender, which is close to a non-negotiable for starting NBA SGs. He's both small and slow enough to be a defensive liability against quicker point guards and taller, more athletic shooting guards. His FG% last year (playing off double-teams of Pierce and Davis) was one of the best in the league among PGs. His FG% this year was close to the worst in the league for SGs. His ideal role on a good team is most likely a 10-15mpg stand-still shooter off the bench. Unfortunately, he's looked his worst in his career when asked to play fewer minutes behind people like Payton and Sczcerbiak. Needs to play better in short minutes. Needs to shoot better. Needs to settle for a Perk-esque, sub-MLE contract
Ryan Gomes: C+ See Delonte. The best players in the league do multiple things very well. The role players who stick for ten years often have a single exemplary skill (Bruce Bowen: defense; Kyle Korver: shooting; etc) that earns their place in a rotation. Gomes is decent at every aspect of basketball but really good at nothing. If he can add a three-point shot, defend SFs better on the perimeter and/or defend PFs better in the paint, then his value goes up. Currently on track for a solid, Kenny Thomas-like career (someone else who has only ever started on lottery teams)
Wally Sczcerbiak: C Played lousy team basketball all year, even when he wasn't injured. Invariably looked for his own shot, despite shooting like crap. Seemed to believe he could do things like take good NBA perimeter defenders off the dribble. Mugged for the camera after every made FG, waving his arms and yelling at his team-mates as if he was the only guy who was trying. An absolute turnstile on defense. Showed signs of either a very low BBIQ, megalomania, or both. The word around Boston is that he is a complete ahole as a teammate. Completely failed at his one job: playing well and staying healthy so that he'd have some trade value this off season. If it wasn't for his talent and experience he'd be graded lower. Wally is a perfect checklist for everything that Boston sports journalists traditionally despise in a pro basketball player, except that he's white and looks like a GQ model
Brian Scalibrine: C One of the few post-rookie-deal players on the squad who actually played up to his contract. Since this is Veal's ceiling, consider this grade a compliment and a sign of appreciation for a relatively good season. When Brian Scalibrine is your over-achieving vet and arguably your best acquisition in recent years, your team is in lots of trouble.
Tony Allen: C- Before his potential career-ending injury, his best run of play this year showed he could be the #1 perimeter offensive option on a horrible team. This will be very helpful for him 1) if he can get his NCAA eligibility reinstated, or 2) in Greece. He played the worst basketball of his career (selfish, dumb, inconsistent) early in the season before the better players around him got injured. If he can come back healthy can he play effectively as the forth option with Pierce, Jefferson and Wally? Will he still accept a role as defensive stopper and role player off the bench? If so, he'd have some value
Leon Powe: D+ Borderline NBA player. Small PF who can't play away from the basket at all. Hustles constantly, which allows him to look good in games when nobody on the other team cares at all or bothers with things like boxing out. Good guy to have around if you're trying to keep some fans entertained while throwing games
Gerald Green: D This year he was only the worst player on the court most nights. Last year he wasn't even very good by NBADL standards. Right now his ceiling is probably somebody like Rashard Lewis, another athletic phenom with a fantastic outside shot who went from high school to the pros and took several years to learn how to play basketball. A more likely comp is probably something close to the next Jamal Crawford: a player who can put up a ton of points in a hurry when his shot is falling but who contributes absolutely nothing and is easily the worst player on the court when its not. Gerald may be severely learning disabled, or there may be other reason why at age 21 he still looks completely lost trying to play team basketball. Friends with season tickets this year have told me that Doc, the assistant coaches and his teammates spend almost every play telling Gerald where to go and what to do. His biggest strength is supposedly shooting and yet his FG% was close to the worst among NBA SGs
Bassy Telfair: D- Barely an NBA player. Appears sincerely interested in playing team basketball, only he's not good at it. Is very encouraging of the rest of the team from the bench. Needs to stop giving interviews
Allan Ray: F I feel a little bad giving someone a low grade because a lousy team gave them a shot. Does not have a single skill that is NBA quality: can't shoot, lousy handle, awful perimeter defender, no apparent ability to recognize when teammates have a better shot and make the appropriate pass. After watching a couple weeks of preseason games I couldn't believe he was still on the team. I still can't.
Michael Olowokandi: A+ Anyone with 'Kandi's career who can still talk an NBA team into signing him to guaranteed money is clearly a brilliant brilliant motherfucker. Normally, a big man in a contract year will need to play well in a playoff series or two before a dumb team will throw money at them. 'Kandi broke a sweat in exactly two preseason games. I love that the second the team needed him to play actual minutes he came up with a random abdomen injury (he supposedly strained a stomach muscle shifting gears while driving) so he could spend the rest of the season watching TV from his beach pavilion in the Caribbean. Hands down the smartest, most successful person associated with the 06-07 Boston Celtics
Doc Rivers: C+ Not great. Not horrible. Spent another season taking chicken shit and experimenting with different poorly thought-through recipes for chicken salad that he'd then consistently botch when preparing
Clifford Ray: B+ Don't know how much credit he gets for Jefferson, but if he's responsible for even 10% of the improvement we've seen he should get an immediate 10-year extension
Danny Ainge: F See above
An end-- or just a suspension?-- of misery
It's the kind of franchise that the Celtics are these days that a highlight of the basketball season is when they finally go home for the summer and the good teams all duke it out in the playoffs. With the regular season over and a month to wait until the NBA lottery order is determined, its as good a time as any to summarize the train wreck that was the 2006-2007 season
The Celtics finished 24-58 (.293 winning percentage) which made them officially the second-worst Celtics team of all time. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, only the absolutely pathetic ML Carr 19-win squad a decade ago had a lower winning percentage than this year's group of supposedly professional basketball players.
We can debate how much criticism for all this losing the front office should take, now that the team is headed for the top of a historically good draft and revisionist history is pouring out of Causeway Street in waves. It doesn't look good for Ainge, however, that he spent six months before this season adamantly insisting this was a playoff squad. Nor that the players he had assembled fell flat on their faces at the start of the year, well before injuries shortened the rotation. Playing one of the easiest early-season schedules in the league—including a majority of their games at home against non-playoff teams— the Cs plummeted to an NBA-worst 5-13 by early December. This was all before Pierce’s “injuries” and the to the historic 18-game losing streak.
So what kind of assets do we have on our roster? Where are our strengths and where are the holes? The following assessment is not based on potential, or trade value, but strictly each player's most recent production on the court. Players that are not starting-quality, but who are good enough to be the first off the bench at their position (point, wing, post) get slotted as 'rotation'. If you're not even that good you're 'bench'. If your medical future is sufficiently uncertain then you're 'unfit or unknown'.
I'll add to this a couple observations
- First, whether or not someone starts is obviously not always correlated with whether they are 'starting quality'. Lots of lottery teams start players out of desperation that would only play 5-10 minutes a night on a 55-win playoff squad. Lots of strong playoff teams have starting-quality talent coming off the bench.
- Second, he best players on your team by and large determine how many games you win in the NBA. Having a really good 9th or 10th man is nice, but not nearly as important as how many and how good the starting quality (or better) players are. This becomes even more true in the playoffs. As the Celtics found out this year, when you don’t have much in the way of top talent, you do a whole lot of losing. During the brief window at the end of the season when Pierce and Jefferson healthy and allowed to play the Celtics won three road games against playoff teams in a week (San Antonio, Toronto and Orlando). Without Pierce the team didn't win for over a month.
Player-by-player assessments to follow in the next post
The Celtics finished 24-58 (.293 winning percentage) which made them officially the second-worst Celtics team of all time. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, only the absolutely pathetic ML Carr 19-win squad a decade ago had a lower winning percentage than this year's group of supposedly professional basketball players.
We can debate how much criticism for all this losing the front office should take, now that the team is headed for the top of a historically good draft and revisionist history is pouring out of Causeway Street in waves. It doesn't look good for Ainge, however, that he spent six months before this season adamantly insisting this was a playoff squad. Nor that the players he had assembled fell flat on their faces at the start of the year, well before injuries shortened the rotation. Playing one of the easiest early-season schedules in the league—including a majority of their games at home against non-playoff teams— the Cs plummeted to an NBA-worst 5-13 by early December. This was all before Pierce’s “injuries” and the to the historic 18-game losing streak.
So what kind of assets do we have on our roster? Where are our strengths and where are the holes? The following assessment is not based on potential, or trade value, but strictly each player's most recent production on the court. Players that are not starting-quality, but who are good enough to be the first off the bench at their position (point, wing, post) get slotted as 'rotation'. If you're not even that good you're 'bench'. If your medical future is sufficiently uncertain then you're 'unfit or unknown'.
I'll add to this a couple observations
- First, whether or not someone starts is obviously not always correlated with whether they are 'starting quality'. Lots of lottery teams start players out of desperation that would only play 5-10 minutes a night on a 55-win playoff squad. Lots of strong playoff teams have starting-quality talent coming off the bench.
- Second, he best players on your team by and large determine how many games you win in the NBA. Having a really good 9th or 10th man is nice, but not nearly as important as how many and how good the starting quality (or better) players are. This becomes even more true in the playoffs. As the Celtics found out this year, when you don’t have much in the way of top talent, you do a whole lot of losing. During the brief window at the end of the season when Pierce and Jefferson healthy and allowed to play the Celtics won three road games against playoff teams in a week (San Antonio, Toronto and Orlando). Without Pierce the team didn't win for over a month.
Player-by-player assessments to follow in the next post
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Bill Simmons Media Criticism Dept.
By the way, I'd pay at least $500 to have someone who gives a crap like Seiko Smith covering the Boston Celtics. I'm not kidding. Something tells me he wouldn't be regurgitating the "young players have really improved under Doc!" (a bold-faced lie, by the way -- the only one who's gotten better is Al Jefferson) and "you never want to enter a season with a lame duck coach" B.S. (really, the players give a crap if their coach is in the final year of his contract?) and hoping Doc Rivers comes back just because another season of Doc makes their job easier. The way the Celtics have been covered over the past few years makes me want to throw up. Shame on everyone. This team has changed its long-term plan four times in four seasons, they don't play defense, they have one guy who's gotten better in three seasons, they're the second-worst team in the NBA ... and every Boston media member is fine with the coach and GM coming back? Nobody's even questioning it?link
Tanking.
Further to my lunchtime conversation with B., consider this post on why the NBA sees more late-season tanking than other leagues.
A Dice-K scouting report.
It's time for our Dice-K scouting report of the week. "If [Jason] Varitek has trouble catching him, because the ball moves so much, you know the hitters have their work cut out trying to hit him," says one scout. "He doesn't have any pattern. He has all that movement. And he throws so many different pitches with command. This guy is farther along in his first year in the big leagues than [Hideo] Nomo was. He has a much better arm, for one thing. And he has a chance to have more staying power, because he doesn't have all the gyrations Nomo had in his delivery. So this guy is going to win a lot of games, and he's going to have a huge impact."ESPN.com.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Stick around, Al.
Jackie MacMullen has a piece on ESPN.com about the prospect that the Celtics will draft Greg Oden or Kevin Durant and then trade Al Jefferson, who doesn't think the C's need another big man:
Assume that the Celtics draft Oden. Wouldn't both Oden and Jefferson be a lot better with each other, offensively and defensively? And the same is true, to a lesser extent, with Durant. Who would you give up Jefferson to get?Pierce continues to lobby for Boston to bring a proven veteran to the Celtics. He recognizes the price could be steep. The team's bargaining chips include the lottery pick that will be coming the team's way in the June draft, Theo Ratliff, whose expiring contract is worth $11.66 million and is attractive to teams looking to carve out salary cap space, and a collection of young, unrefined talent that Danny Ainge, the Celtics' head of basketball operations, has been stockpiling.
It's no great mystery which of the youngsters will draw the most interest -- Jefferson -- and while Pierce prefers to rebuild with Big Al in tow, he acknowledged the price of acquiring a high level talent like Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol might require parting with the young forward.
Team sources confirmed that if the Celtics end up with either the No. 1 or 2 pick (which would land them either Ohio State's Greg Oden or Texas' Kevin Durant, in that preferred order), they will not trade it. That would leave Jefferson, who was averaging 15.8 points and 10.9 rebounds a game before being sidelined with a bruised knee, as the major bait for a major veteran.
Big Al, meanwhile, consistently has chafed at the incessant talk of Oden in Celtics green.
"We don't need a big man," he sniffed recently. "We already have one.
"I just hope and pray Danny believes that me and Paul are the ones who can get us to the playoffs."
Sunday, March 25, 2007
The benefits of plagiarism
Not to wallow in Ron Borges's problems, but one of the fringe benefits of his suspension is this week's Boston Globe Football Notes column where Mike Reiss talks to Bill Belichick about some of the proposed rule changes in the NFL this year. The answers aren't what I would have expected. Somehow I can't picture Borges doing the same piece.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
It's not easy being green.
Whoever decided that the Bulls should wear green uniforms last night should be taken out and shot. Or buried under several tons of potatoes, and then drowned in Guiness.
Monday, March 12, 2007
If there is any justice, those had better be some ugly, old-skool shoes.
According to today's Globe:
Adidas and the Celtics announced they will team to launch a commemorative, limited-edition line of jerseys and shoes to honor the late Red Auerbach. The merchandise will be available at the Garden Pro Shop, on Celtics.com, NBAStore.com, shopadidas.com, and at select stores.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Make of this what you will
During the Texas - OSU rematch grudge match this afternoon there were multiple camera shots of Danny Ainge sitting in the stands with Kevin Durant's mother and grandmother. They appeared to be having a jolly old time, watching Durant do everything but walk on water.
Anyone who hasn't taken the chance to watch this kid shred the NCAAs this year is missing something really special. Durant is making Carmelo Anthony's freshman season look ho-hum.
Anyone who hasn't taken the chance to watch this kid shred the NCAAs this year is missing something really special. Durant is making Carmelo Anthony's freshman season look ho-hum.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Borges
Didn't realize T.S. was quite so out of the loop. Nevertheless, there isn't much to say about Borges that hasn't already been said. The best blogging has been done by the guys over at Boston Sports Media, especially David Scott of Scott's Shots. (There are too many posts on Boston Sports Media to link to them individually; just scroll down and work your way up.) I think those sites combine the best links and original reporting/commentary on the matter.
Frankly, as most of the posters here know, I find Borges unoriginal to begin with. His contrarian shtick on all things Belichick rings pretty hollow with 3 Super Bowl titles and two additional playoff appearances in the last 6 years. I'm not saying he needs to wave the pom-poms, but you've got to give me something more than just pot shots. Say what you will about sports/entertainment guys like Bill Simmons, but at least he tries to be original and interesting, and when he's wrong, he says so.
Getting back to Borges, the sad thing is that whether you like him or not, the plagiarism taints his entire career. Everything he has ever written and will ever write comes under the microscope. It also has the potential to make him truly toxic in the journalism world. There's not much fun in piling on that.
Frankly, as most of the posters here know, I find Borges unoriginal to begin with. His contrarian shtick on all things Belichick rings pretty hollow with 3 Super Bowl titles and two additional playoff appearances in the last 6 years. I'm not saying he needs to wave the pom-poms, but you've got to give me something more than just pot shots. Say what you will about sports/entertainment guys like Bill Simmons, but at least he tries to be original and interesting, and when he's wrong, he says so.
Getting back to Borges, the sad thing is that whether you like him or not, the plagiarism taints his entire career. Everything he has ever written and will ever write comes under the microscope. It also has the potential to make him truly toxic in the journalism world. There's not much fun in piling on that.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Al Jefferson: player of the week
In a sign that national attention is starting to catch up with his game, Al Jefferson was just announced as the NBA player of the week. During the last four games (all wins) Al has averaged 24 points and 15 rebounds on 55% shooting
Despite a very slow start to the season-- including missing almost three weeks of November while having his appendix removed-- Al's averages are now up to 15 points and 11 rebounds on 50% shooting, all while looking increasingly comfortable on defense. It's been great to see and a long time coming. Even more impressive than Al's (rare and) soft shooting touch is his rebounding. The guys rebounds in wins, in loses, when he's in foul trouble and not, he could probably outrebound half the league in his sleep. On the year he is now the 6th best rebounder in the whole league. Since he's slightly small for the PF position and not really a leaper, Al's rebounding looks like its testiment to his very strong innate sense of timing and how quick he is off his feet. I'd suggest that the weight he dropped last summer might have helped, except that Al's put up monster rebounding-per-48-minutes numbers ever since he came into the league
Although I don't have it handy to post, I can report that the relatively few NBA post players who put up the kinds of numbers that Al has at age 21 almost all went on to become multiple-time All Stars
Despite a very slow start to the season-- including missing almost three weeks of November while having his appendix removed-- Al's averages are now up to 15 points and 11 rebounds on 50% shooting, all while looking increasingly comfortable on defense. It's been great to see and a long time coming. Even more impressive than Al's (rare and) soft shooting touch is his rebounding. The guys rebounds in wins, in loses, when he's in foul trouble and not, he could probably outrebound half the league in his sleep. On the year he is now the 6th best rebounder in the whole league. Since he's slightly small for the PF position and not really a leaper, Al's rebounding looks like its testiment to his very strong innate sense of timing and how quick he is off his feet. I'd suggest that the weight he dropped last summer might have helped, except that Al's put up monster rebounding-per-48-minutes numbers ever since he came into the league
Although I don't have it handy to post, I can report that the relatively few NBA post players who put up the kinds of numbers that Al has at age 21 almost all went on to become multiple-time All Stars
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Telfair.
On the subject of breaking up the Celtics, a double-overtime game this afternoon and Sebastian Telfair was a DNP--Coach's Decision. So, um, that's not so good.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Friday, January 26, 2007
Daisuke and the Gyroball
New SI.com column on Daisuke and whether or not he throws the so-called "gyroball." The verdict? Probably not. But for $103 million dollars, does it really matter as long as he can get hitters out?
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Bird-dogging the next NBA draft
Two years ago on the list-serve that predated this blog I raved about the potential of Danny Granger. As a senior at New Mexico, Granger looked like he could step into the eight-man rotation of a strong NBA playoff team from day one. There was much gnashing of teeth in the B household when Indiana took him one pick ahead of the Celtics in the 2005 draft.
Last year in the early round of the NCAA tourney I posted about two college players that looked like late-lottery/mid-first round steals: Brandon Roy and Joaquim Noah. I wasn't alone. If Roy can stay free of injury he'd be the presumptive favorite for Rookie of the Year. Noah ended up getting lots of 'top three' pick buzz before electing to stay in school.
This year I'm not waiting for the NCAA tourney to give you an early favorite. Circle the name Corey Brewer in your programs. He's a 6'9" shooting guard for Florida who steals the show every time I turn on the TV to watch Noah and Al Horford (everyone’s' top 5 projected big men). Brewer is the classic example of a player who might slip into the late lottery or the middle of the first round because he looks like a super rotation player rather than a potential All Star. As a result he'll go after plenty of projects with upside potential (e.g. Hasheem Thabeet, Yi Jianlian), many of who'll bust out, and some already-decent team will luck into landing one of the top players in the draft.
Call it the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince phenomena
The last few Florida games I've watched I've loved Brewer. He's a defensive stopper who's fine with being the 3rd option but has real offensive ability (with the exception of a streaky jumper). There were several Florida games last year in which Taureen Green couldn't hit a jumper, the other team's big men were able to frustrate Horford and Noah, and Brewer stepped up and took over the offense.
His handle and ability to drive surprised me in those situations, and he shows a great understanding of where he ought to be on the floor. At the college level he can get any shot off he wants, without particularly exerting himself. He's not the most consistent at finishing at the basket or with his jumper. Both of these things will cause scouts to downgrade his value and should keep him out of the top 10. But these are also two of the things that are easiest to improve at the pro level with year-round practice and repetition. In his favor Brewer has got legitimate 3-point range, can hit the midrange pull-up and he does everything else well. Assuming the FG% improves he's going to be an excellent pick for somebody.
If he walked into the Celtics practice tomorrow he'd be an immediate improvement over Tony Allen and Delonte West at SG
Last year in the early round of the NCAA tourney I posted about two college players that looked like late-lottery/mid-first round steals: Brandon Roy and Joaquim Noah. I wasn't alone. If Roy can stay free of injury he'd be the presumptive favorite for Rookie of the Year. Noah ended up getting lots of 'top three' pick buzz before electing to stay in school.
This year I'm not waiting for the NCAA tourney to give you an early favorite. Circle the name Corey Brewer in your programs. He's a 6'9" shooting guard for Florida who steals the show every time I turn on the TV to watch Noah and Al Horford (everyone’s' top 5 projected big men). Brewer is the classic example of a player who might slip into the late lottery or the middle of the first round because he looks like a super rotation player rather than a potential All Star. As a result he'll go after plenty of projects with upside potential (e.g. Hasheem Thabeet, Yi Jianlian), many of who'll bust out, and some already-decent team will luck into landing one of the top players in the draft.
Call it the Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince phenomena
The last few Florida games I've watched I've loved Brewer. He's a defensive stopper who's fine with being the 3rd option but has real offensive ability (with the exception of a streaky jumper). There were several Florida games last year in which Taureen Green couldn't hit a jumper, the other team's big men were able to frustrate Horford and Noah, and Brewer stepped up and took over the offense.
His handle and ability to drive surprised me in those situations, and he shows a great understanding of where he ought to be on the floor. At the college level he can get any shot off he wants, without particularly exerting himself. He's not the most consistent at finishing at the basket or with his jumper. Both of these things will cause scouts to downgrade his value and should keep him out of the top 10. But these are also two of the things that are easiest to improve at the pro level with year-round practice and repetition. In his favor Brewer has got legitimate 3-point range, can hit the midrange pull-up and he does everything else well. Assuming the FG% improves he's going to be an excellent pick for somebody.
If he walked into the Celtics practice tomorrow he'd be an immediate improvement over Tony Allen and Delonte West at SG
Monday, January 08, 2007
Charlie Rosen has nice things to say
The Celtics season has been full of all the short-term pains that come with watching an overwhelmingly young and semi-talented team get chewed up by a league that favors neither. There have been a few bright spots along the way and some potentially optimistic long-term developments. Of these, one of the most notable might be watching the team and Paul decide that the time is right for Pierce to pull a David Robinson and sit out the season before a stunning draft. If Pierce's current “foot injury” is in fact hooey, than we can reasonably expect nobody to ever admit it in public and on the record. Either way, the result has been whole lot (more) loses and the chance for youngsters like Tony Allen, Gerald Green and Al Jefferson to get an accelerated NBA education.
This week Charlie Rosen decided to watch the Cavs game, and came away impressed. I'll offer as context that this was clearly the best game the Celtics have played in the last two weeks, and they still lost to a Cleveland team that acted like they couldn’t possibly care less for the first 40 minutes. I mean, it says something about how pathetic your team is when opponents KNOW that they can spend the first three quarters doing shots at a bar down the street, show up for the final frame and still kick your butt at home. Ladies and gentleman, we are a bad team.
But we're a bad team that just got some good PR. So let's hope that as a result of some kind of domino effect any number of dumb NBA GMs come to decide that Tony Allen is worth having as a throw-in in a larger trade and send us something with real potential.
This week Charlie Rosen decided to watch the Cavs game, and came away impressed. I'll offer as context that this was clearly the best game the Celtics have played in the last two weeks, and they still lost to a Cleveland team that acted like they couldn’t possibly care less for the first 40 minutes. I mean, it says something about how pathetic your team is when opponents KNOW that they can spend the first three quarters doing shots at a bar down the street, show up for the final frame and still kick your butt at home. Ladies and gentleman, we are a bad team.
But we're a bad team that just got some good PR. So let's hope that as a result of some kind of domino effect any number of dumb NBA GMs come to decide that Tony Allen is worth having as a throw-in in a larger trade and send us something with real potential.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Moving on up.
Ladies and gentlemen, your Atlantic Division standings as of this hour:
Boston 10 13 .435 -
Toronto 9 14 .391 1
New Jersey 9 14 .391 1
New York 9 17 .346 2.5
Philadelphia 5 18 .217 5
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Trivia time
Mind-boggling trivia question courtesy Bill Simmons's latest column: how old (in years) is Antoine Walker? Answers please before you click through.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
First sign of the apocalypse?
It is beyond pathetic that as of this writing the 5-8 Celtics (with their .385 winning percentage) are now in sole possession of first place in the craptastic Atlantic Division. If the playoffs started tomorrow a team that didn't win even 40% of their games would be the #3 seed in the East.
I'm not sure when I've seen less parity between major conferences in a sports league. Only three of fifteen teams in the East currently have a winning record. Only four of fifteen teams in the West currently have a losing record.
I wonder if we should institute the Premier League policy of demoting the worst NBA teams to the CBA at the end of every year. No Oden for you! [/soup nazi]
I'm not sure when I've seen less parity between major conferences in a sports league. Only three of fifteen teams in the East currently have a winning record. Only four of fifteen teams in the West currently have a losing record.
I wonder if we should institute the Premier League policy of demoting the worst NBA teams to the CBA at the end of every year. No Oden for you! [/soup nazi]
Bob Ryan, uncut
Over at a website I've never been to before, Sports Media Guide, bob Ryan has a long interview posted in which he explains how great he is and all the forms that takes. He brings up a few past topics on this blog, such as the large numbers of sports journalists that seem to dislike sports and the changes made possible by electronic media.
Excerpt:
On sources, and apropos of his recent unwillingness to criticize Doc Rivers:
On the 'new media'
The one exception I'll take to this is to point out that Simmons clearly has multiple sources inside the Celtics front office, as well as those of multiple other NBA teams. He's broken several Celtic-related stories over in recent years. If anything, I suspect some of the threat Ryan is feeling from Simmons stems in part from how similar the later is to Ryan's self-image. Simmons very clearly aspires to write from the fans perspective and was a season ticket holder who went to almost every game at the garden from the late-1980s until he moved to LA a few years ago. Ryan wants to make the big difference between print and on-line journalims about the access and relationships the former has that the later can't replicate. I don't know if that is already outdated.
Excerpt:
When I started I saw guys get jaded at 40 and then they got really jaded and terminally unhappy. The late Ray Fitzgerald was an example. I still like the games. That's why so many sports editors are missing the boat as they try to re-invent the newspaper. I still like the games. I see people crafting columns in the fifth inning or the third quarter and I say, "You're not watching the game". And people say, "I'm writing about the people and the color". Well, guess what? It starts with the game. If I'm flipping the dial as I was a week ago in my hotel room in New York – Brown and Yale were tied with six minutes to go – I'm hanging around to see what happens. I couldn't name a player on either team, but I was curious to see how it came out. I like the games. I don't think enough people actually like the games.
I don't relate to people who are not fans. Some writers insist they can't be fans – I read your interview with Dave Hooker – (Dan) Shaughnessy (Boston Globe) will tell you that – but I am very much a fan. That's my DNA – it's why I have an advantage over most other people. I can convey that to my readers – they know that if they hang in with me over a period of time there's no doubt I am one of them. That is simply not the case with the vast majority of my colleagues. How can they function – I don't get it. I can't be clinical. Even though I don't like football it doesn't mean I can't go to a game and get into it – and I'm more into football now than ever because of what the Patriots have done the last six years
On sources, and apropos of his recent unwillingness to criticize Doc Rivers:
I read your interview with Shaun Powell (Newsday) and his viewpoint about going about business without getting close to the people you cover. I respect that - but I'm not like that. I can't help becoming friendly with people in the business. I don't see anything wrong with it. You should be able to figure out parameters – I'm not going on vacation with these guys. I don't understand what he was talking about. I can't understand how you can be a columnist and not have somebody you can pick up the phone and talk to - somebody who you have a cordial relationship with and can shoot the breeze with.
What is this job all about? If you're a beat person, how can you have a source if it's not a friendly source? I don't get it – what's wrong with being friendly and compatible with them? You're selling yourself to these people. You're selling yourself to make them comfortable with you so they tell you things.
On the 'new media'
You've got the shift in readership to the likes of Bill Simmons and all of the people on the Internet, who are a little less accountable than newspaper writers. But they're all out there forcing us to re-evaluate where we fit in. It's not the same and it won't be the same – our influence is waning and eroding. Simmons is not doing what mainstream columnists do – he has no desire to speak to anyone in power – he observes and does what he does. There's room for everybody – the access to information is staggering, imposing and intimidating. You've got Baseball Prospectus and all that number crunching by genius people dissecting baseball in ways mainstream writers never could – it's very intimidating.
All you can do is use your access to bring thoughts to the public and to write as well as you can and hope that someone cares and that it matters. And how you say things is almost as important as what you're saying. When that stops being the case we'll be in trouble. Our business is under siege. Somebody starting out today should get to a dot.com immediately if not sooner – why spend your time in a dying industry? I'm grateful I'm much closer to the end of my career than the beginning. I'm grateful for the times I've lived through. I doubt the dot.comers will ever have the fun we had – because of the access and respect we got from the leagues – theirs will never be what ours was. They'll never have the fun and the relationships we were lucky enough to have had. I can't imagine starting out today. Whoever is the NBA guru today – if you will, the 'me' of 1986 or 1988 when I was at my peak – no way will he have as much fun as the guys I did it with. The world was so much simpler and the games were so much better – but that's another story
The one exception I'll take to this is to point out that Simmons clearly has multiple sources inside the Celtics front office, as well as those of multiple other NBA teams. He's broken several Celtic-related stories over in recent years. If anything, I suspect some of the threat Ryan is feeling from Simmons stems in part from how similar the later is to Ryan's self-image. Simmons very clearly aspires to write from the fans perspective and was a season ticket holder who went to almost every game at the garden from the late-1980s until he moved to LA a few years ago. Ryan wants to make the big difference between print and on-line journalims about the access and relationships the former has that the later can't replicate. I don't know if that is already outdated.
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Manny to SF?
SFGate.com is reporting that the Sox and Giants are talking about a deal to send Manny to San Francisco. There are a number of obstacles. One is Manny's contract. Another is his right to veto a trade. A third is what the Giants go send east in return -- prospects, perhaps.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Doc Rivers deathwatch
The Celtics have started the season 1-6 for lots of reasons that have nothing to do wtih the coaching staff. The roster is incredibly young and a mis-mosh of different strengths and flaws. Unlike other rebuilding projects the Celtics do not appear to have a clear approach to the team they are building. (To pick an example we've already discussed around here: the Bulls are forming a team around athletic, high-character guys who will play very high energy defense 48 minutes a game and scrap for as many points as they can get).
All that said, the coaching of this team has been lousy. The players are routinely unprepared for what other team's are going to do, look lost and confused on both offense and defense far too often, take far far too long to adjust to in-game developments, and don't seem to be playing in any sort of coherent system that takes advantage of their strengths.
The Indiana Pacers, a team that has owned us in recent years and which matches up with our current roster roster very well, comes to town tonight. We should be 1-7 going into the weekend and then face two games that should be easy wins: at home against Portland and on the road against the Knicks. If we drop either or (god forbid) both of those it's hard to imagine how much longer Doc can hold out.
All that said, the coaching of this team has been lousy. The players are routinely unprepared for what other team's are going to do, look lost and confused on both offense and defense far too often, take far far too long to adjust to in-game developments, and don't seem to be playing in any sort of coherent system that takes advantage of their strengths.
The Indiana Pacers, a team that has owned us in recent years and which matches up with our current roster roster very well, comes to town tonight. We should be 1-7 going into the weekend and then face two games that should be easy wins: at home against Portland and on the road against the Knicks. If we drop either or (god forbid) both of those it's hard to imagine how much longer Doc can hold out.
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Getting everyone on the same page.
Shira Springer's account of the Celtics' loss to the Jazz last night suggests that the team is having a hard time getting everyone reading from the same script:
Or not. Peter May's article says:In every loss this season (and there are four), the Celtics knew exactly what they needed to do, but failed to execute. As Pierce commented, they often have four players on the same page and another not where he needs to be. Defensive breakdowns inevitably follow.
This is similar to observations made last season when the Celtics rarely found themselves all on the same page. Given that recent history and the final result last night, it was understandable the players did not want to emphasize the positives. If the Celtics were united in anything last night, it was their unwillingness to see silver linings in the defeat.
[Y]ou take what you can get from affairs like last night's 107-100 setback to the Utah Jazz.I guess they weren't united in anything.Like, for instance, the "Whoa" game submitted by Rajon Rondo.
As Doc Rivers put it afterward, "I'm always looking for silver linings and that was a big one."
Friday, November 10, 2006
Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka?
ESPN.com says the Sox may have submitted the top bid for the rights to negotiate with Japanese right-handed pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Sounds like a lot of money, but I like the move, since there don't seem to be a lot of other good options out there.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Interesting Video
Here's a really fascinating video of Bryan Colangelo during the first round of the last draft, trying desperately to get Williams late in the first round. It includes a call to Danny Ainge, asking him why he wanted Telfair instead. Interesting stuff.
(As I said right after the draft, I liked the Rondo pick better than the move for Telfair and think Boston should have chosen Roy, Foye, or Gay instead of trading for Telfair. I like all three of them a lot better than Telfair.)
As a Bulls fan, I found Charley Rosen's take on a recent Bulls game interesting. I thought it was pretty spot on in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Charley tends to be overly critical of players, but I thought his criticisms here were fair.
Any thoughts on the Celtics' season so far? From what I've read, Boston fans seem to be blaming the coach. I think the GM deserves more of the blame. But things will get better for you guys. I'd expect a finish closer to .500 than .250.
(As I said right after the draft, I liked the Rondo pick better than the move for Telfair and think Boston should have chosen Roy, Foye, or Gay instead of trading for Telfair. I like all three of them a lot better than Telfair.)
As a Bulls fan, I found Charley Rosen's take on a recent Bulls game interesting. I thought it was pretty spot on in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Charley tends to be overly critical of players, but I thought his criticisms here were fair.
Any thoughts on the Celtics' season so far? From what I've read, Boston fans seem to be blaming the coach. I think the GM deserves more of the blame. But things will get better for you guys. I'd expect a finish closer to .500 than .250.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Doh! Doc
I think this quote from the latest Bill Simmons column just about sums up how fans feel about Doc Rivers's tenure in Boston. It's an email from Danny in Boston:
"After walking through Faneuil Hall earlier today and seeing the statue of Red sitting on the bench smoking a cigar, I couldn't help but think to myself: Who would lead the Celtics to more wins, Doc Rivers or a replica statue of Red placed on the Celtics' bench?"
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Rooting for the worst team in the league
M's earlier post about Doc prompted me to fetch the following out of its 'draft' status and finally post it
------------------------------------------------------------
Waiting for any substantial results to come in from Senate races in Virginia, Missouri and Montana (I don't have much optimism for Tennessee) is as good a time as any to check in on our local, supposedly illustrious pro basketball team.
This week, the especially notable thing about the Celtics is that they may have achieved an elusive double-whammy of basketball honors. Yes, the Celtics are currently tied for the worst record in the NBA (0-3) while holding undisputed last place in ESPN's power rankings (the big 3-'dead last'-0 out of 30).
I've had the makings of a longish 'state of the Celtics' post rattling around in the back of my head for a while. At one point it might have been a pre-season preview, but it's now a little late for that. Whatever we want to title it, the content is long on flaws and lean on optimism.
A cliff notes summary of the flaws of the current team would include the following:
1) Almost 70% of the team's rotation players are 24 years and younger (e.g. Perkins, Jefferson, Gomes, West, Allen, Telfair, Rondo) which is a receipt for disaster if you want to win games in the here and now of the NBA. Winning teams are stocked with veterans, and the conventional wisdom that the NBA chews up and spits out youngsters gets confirmed every season. A friend, G., looked at the rosters of every NBA team over the last 30 years and found only one with as many young rotation players as this year's Celtics that won more than 50% of their regular season games: the 2004-05 Chicago Bulls. It's highly unlikely that the Celtics as currently constructed will achieve similar success.
2) The Celtics are incredibly thin in the front court. Indeed, they have nobody at PF or C that can be considered a reliable NBA player. The situation is so bad that three stiffs that by rights should be playing in Greece or the NBADL (Brian Scalanbrine, Theo Ratliff, Michael Olowakandi) will probably log regular rotation minutes for the Cs this season.
3) Ainge has stocked this roster with an incompatible mix of players that are best suited for different offensive schemes. Work-in-progress athletes such as Telfair, Rondo, Allen and Green are best suited for an up-tempo, fast-break system that masks their deficiencies at playing half-court basketball. Unfortunately, the other half of our rotation is full of players like Pierce, Szczerbiak and Perkins who are poorly suited, at best, for up-tempo basketball. Last season we watched the team institute a high-post motion offense so that they could play Delonte West big minutes at PG (West is completely unable to create dribble penetration or create his own shot, requiring non-PGs to initiate offensive sets). This offense allowed West to flourish (statistically he was the third best player on the team). The problem was that the team also wanted to give big minutes to Jefferson and Perkins, who were completely unable to do the things a high-post offense requires of its big men (e.g. make quick and appropriate passes, hit 10' shots, make intelligent decisions away from the ball, not turn the ball over). The result of Ainge's hodge-podge approach to assembling a roster is a group for whom the whole is less than the sum of its parts.
If you're looking for a silver lining, it might be this: the conventional wisdom has been that the Celtics would need to trade Pierce to get bad enough to rebuild with any success through the draft. If the Celtics continue their early season awful ways, however, they might end up with a great draw in the Oden sweepstakes without every officially blowing things up. Is this great good fortune or the road to disaster? We might have a lot of time this season to debate that.
------------------------------------------------------------
Waiting for any substantial results to come in from Senate races in Virginia, Missouri and Montana (I don't have much optimism for Tennessee) is as good a time as any to check in on our local, supposedly illustrious pro basketball team.
This week, the especially notable thing about the Celtics is that they may have achieved an elusive double-whammy of basketball honors. Yes, the Celtics are currently tied for the worst record in the NBA (0-3) while holding undisputed last place in ESPN's power rankings (the big 3-'dead last'-0 out of 30).
I've had the makings of a longish 'state of the Celtics' post rattling around in the back of my head for a while. At one point it might have been a pre-season preview, but it's now a little late for that. Whatever we want to title it, the content is long on flaws and lean on optimism.
A cliff notes summary of the flaws of the current team would include the following:
1) Almost 70% of the team's rotation players are 24 years and younger (e.g. Perkins, Jefferson, Gomes, West, Allen, Telfair, Rondo) which is a receipt for disaster if you want to win games in the here and now of the NBA. Winning teams are stocked with veterans, and the conventional wisdom that the NBA chews up and spits out youngsters gets confirmed every season. A friend, G., looked at the rosters of every NBA team over the last 30 years and found only one with as many young rotation players as this year's Celtics that won more than 50% of their regular season games: the 2004-05 Chicago Bulls. It's highly unlikely that the Celtics as currently constructed will achieve similar success.
2) The Celtics are incredibly thin in the front court. Indeed, they have nobody at PF or C that can be considered a reliable NBA player. The situation is so bad that three stiffs that by rights should be playing in Greece or the NBADL (Brian Scalanbrine, Theo Ratliff, Michael Olowakandi) will probably log regular rotation minutes for the Cs this season.
3) Ainge has stocked this roster with an incompatible mix of players that are best suited for different offensive schemes. Work-in-progress athletes such as Telfair, Rondo, Allen and Green are best suited for an up-tempo, fast-break system that masks their deficiencies at playing half-court basketball. Unfortunately, the other half of our rotation is full of players like Pierce, Szczerbiak and Perkins who are poorly suited, at best, for up-tempo basketball. Last season we watched the team institute a high-post motion offense so that they could play Delonte West big minutes at PG (West is completely unable to create dribble penetration or create his own shot, requiring non-PGs to initiate offensive sets). This offense allowed West to flourish (statistically he was the third best player on the team). The problem was that the team also wanted to give big minutes to Jefferson and Perkins, who were completely unable to do the things a high-post offense requires of its big men (e.g. make quick and appropriate passes, hit 10' shots, make intelligent decisions away from the ball, not turn the ball over). The result of Ainge's hodge-podge approach to assembling a roster is a group for whom the whole is less than the sum of its parts.
If you're looking for a silver lining, it might be this: the conventional wisdom has been that the Celtics would need to trade Pierce to get bad enough to rebuild with any success through the draft. If the Celtics continue their early season awful ways, however, they might end up with a great draw in the Oden sweepstakes without every officially blowing things up. Is this great good fortune or the road to disaster? We might have a lot of time this season to debate that.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Red on roundball
One of my early memories of televised Celtics games were the basketball clinics that Red Auerbach would do during half time on different aspects of the game. If I remember correctly, they were titled 'Red on Roundball'
In this clip Red, Bill Russell, Tiny Archibald (Celtics PG '79-83) and someone else combine to walk through defensive positioning in the post.
In this clip Red, Bill Russell, Tiny Archibald (Celtics PG '79-83) and someone else combine to walk through defensive positioning in the post.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
In case you can't decide who to root for
Because I don't spend enough time following the NBA as it is, I've taken the dangerous plunge of joining a 16-team fantasy league with a bunch of basketball obsessives who know a hell of a lot more than me. Since you're all dying of curiosity, this is my opening night roster, in the order they were drafted:
1: LeBron James (SF) Cle
32: Kirk Hinrich (PG, SG) Chi
33: Carlos Boozer (PF, C) Uta
64: Manu Ginobili (SG) Sas
65: Andrew Bogut (PF, C) Mil
96: Mike Miller (SG, SF) Mem
97: T.J. Ford (PG) Tor
128: Jamal Crawford (SG) NyK
129: Mike Dunleavey (SF) GSt
160: Brevin Knight (PG,SG) Cha
161: Jeff Foster (PF,C) Ind
My rookie middle-round draft strategy was, when picking among roughly equal players, to favor those eligible for multiple positions so I have a lot of flexibility from night to night to start the most productive players playing.
Rejected team names: 'LeBron and the white boys', 'LeBron and his honkies', 'Greg Kite's pickup squad'; Current team name: 'We demand a recount!' in anticipation of a rough season.
1: LeBron James (SF) Cle
32: Kirk Hinrich (PG, SG) Chi
33: Carlos Boozer (PF, C) Uta
64: Manu Ginobili (SG) Sas
65: Andrew Bogut (PF, C) Mil
96: Mike Miller (SG, SF) Mem
97: T.J. Ford (PG) Tor
128: Jamal Crawford (SG) NyK
129: Mike Dunleavey (SF) GSt
160: Brevin Knight (PG,SG) Cha
161: Jeff Foster (PF,C) Ind
My rookie middle-round draft strategy was, when picking among roughly equal players, to favor those eligible for multiple positions so I have a lot of flexibility from night to night to start the most productive players playing.
Rejected team names: 'LeBron and the white boys', 'LeBron and his honkies', 'Greg Kite's pickup squad'; Current team name: 'We demand a recount!' in anticipation of a rough season.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Friday, October 27, 2006
Breaking NBA news
from the Onion
Portland Trail Blazers Get Hint After Being Left Off 2006-07 NBA Schedule
PORTLAND, OR—Claiming that it would "just make an awkward situation even worse," Portland Trail Blazers head coach Nate McMillan said in a press conference last Sunday that he and his team "got the hint" after noticing his team's conspicuous absence on the 2006-07 NBA schedule, and will not make any attempt to play a basketball game this year. "At first we thought that they were giving us the first week off, but after looking at the schedule for the rest of the year, we understood what was going on," said McMillan, adding that after last year's league-worst 21-62 record, he thought this might be coming. "I feel we deserved to find out differently, maybe a phone call, but if they don't want us there, fine. We'll just have to find something else to do." League officials said in a statement yesterday that they appreciated the way the Trail Blazers were handling this, adding that the Atlanta Hawks and the New York Knicks have "been acting like a bunch of babies about the whole thing."
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Get your Freak(onomics) on.
Stephen Dubner points out that Celtics Dancer Alexis' favorite book is Freakonomics. If she could spend a day with anyone in the world, it would be Jeffrey Sachs ("because he is brilliant") or Queen Rania of Jordan. Huh.
Voter information.
For an explanation, see here. If anyone objects to this, let me know.
--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl
--AZ-01: Rick Renzi
--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth
--CA-04: John Doolittle
--CA-11: Richard Pombo
--CA-50: Brian Bilbray
--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave
--CO-05: Doug Lamborn
--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell
--CT-04: Christopher Shays
--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan
--FL-16: Joe Negron
--FL-22: Clay Shaw
--ID-01: Bill Sali
--IL-06: Peter Roskam
--IL-10: Mark Kirk
--IL-14: Dennis Hastert
--IN-02: Chris Chocola
--IN-08: John Hostettler
--IA-01: Mike Whalen
--KS-02: Jim Ryun
--KY-03: Anne Northup
--KY-04: Geoff Davis
--MD-Sen: Michael Steele
--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht
--MN-06: Michele Bachmann
--MO-Sen: Jim Talent
--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns
--NV-03: Jon Porter
--NH-02: Charlie Bass
--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson
--NM-01: Heather Wilson
--NY-03: Peter King
--NY-20: John Sweeney
--NY-26: Tom Reynolds
--NY-29: Randy Kuhl
--NC-08: Robin Hayes
--NC-11: Charles Taylor
--OH-01: Steve Chabot
--OH-02: Jean Schmidt
--OH-15: Deborah Pryce
--OH-18: Joy Padgett
--PA-04: Melissa Hart
--PA-07: Curt Weldon
--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick
--PA-10: Don Sherwood
--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee
--TN-Sen: Bob Corker
--VA-Sen: George Allen
--VA-10: Frank Wolf
--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick
--WA-08: Dave Reichert
Monday, October 23, 2006
Inquiring minds want to know.
Please find the ESPN Insider in your office and ask him or her:
(1) What -- if anything -- is new in today's piece about Telfair and the Celtics?
(2) What's the rumoured deal between the Celtics and the Jazz for Carlos Boozer?
(1) What -- if anything -- is new in today's piece about Telfair and the Celtics?
(2) What's the rumoured deal between the Celtics and the Jazz for Carlos Boozer?
Sunday, October 22, 2006
SI's Celtics predictions
SI's NBA preview rankings have the Celtics finishing 14th in the East. The headline is "The star can do it all except lead his team into the playoffs."
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Rondo a la turk
Been meaning to pose this question -- for poeple who have actually seen Rajon Rondo play, are you as enthused as Shira Springer and Bill Simmons?
Friday, October 20, 2006
Is ESPN.com smearing Sebastian Telfair?
Here are the first paragraphs of a story on ESPN.com at this hour titled, "Celts' Telfair denies role in shooting of rapper Fabolous":
Either ESPN.com knows more than it is saying here, in which case this is bad journalism, or they are dragging his name through the mud, in which case it is bad journalism at Sebastian Telfair's expense.
Boston Celtics guard Sebastian Telfair denied Friday that he is under investigation for the shooting of rapper Skylar John Jackson -- also known as Fabolous -- but the police are singing a different tune.Go back and look at the first three paragraphs. The story starts with Telfair's denial. Then it contradicts him: "However, the New York police say Telfair is being investigated." But the story lacks a single sentence or source to support this statement. The next paragraph quotes a NYPD spokesman as saying that the police were "investigating whether there's a connection between the reported robbery and the shooting." This hardly means that Telfair is a suspect. Perhaps Telfair was robbed by people later involved in the shooting. If so, Telfair had some bad luck, but did nothing wrong."I wasn't being investigated for any shooting," Telfair told reporters on Friday at the Celtics' practice facility in Waltham, Mass. "My necklace was snatched from my neck." However, the New York police say Telfair is being investigated.
"We're investigating whether there's a connection between the reported robbery and the shooting," New York Police Department spokesman Paul Browne told The Associated Press earlier this week.
The 21-year-old Telfair had a $50,000 chain ripped off his neck early Tuesday morning outside Justin's, a Manhattan club owned by hip-hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs. Twenty minutes later, Jackson, 28, was shot and wounded in the left thigh outside of the club. The New York Daily News reported that surveillance video captured two members of Fabolous' entourage robbing Telfair. The paper's sources claim Telfair saw the men inside the club and made a cell phone call. The security camera reportedly captured the shooter leaving in a grey car.
According to Assistant District Attorney Nicole Blumberg, several witnesses heard gunshots outside the East 22nd Street restaurant at about 12:30 a.m. There were a number of calls to 911, and one witness took down the make and license plate of a sport utility vehicle leaving the scene, she said.
After the incident, four men, including Fabolous, were arrested and charged with having unregistered, loaded weapons in their SUV.
Telfair left Tuesday night's Celtics game against the Knicks after halftime to view lineups, which contained Fabolous and members of his entourage. The 21-year-old Telfair was unable to identify the suspect.
"I was in an unfortunate situation, if you want to say I'm a bad person because I was out with my fiance, then that's what it is. I know who I am, my teammates and this organization know who I am," Telfair told reporters.
Either ESPN.com knows more than it is saying here, in which case this is bad journalism, or they are dragging his name through the mud, in which case it is bad journalism at Sebastian Telfair's expense.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Ah, sweet fall, when young men's minds turn to
NBA training camps and the new basketball season.
The best of the season previous that I've seen to date has recently gone up at McSweeney's. Relevant for hoops fans everywhere and for Celtics fans looking for possible context to Doc's looming decision to start the season with a three SF starting lineup.
The best of the season previous that I've seen to date has recently gone up at McSweeney's. Relevant for hoops fans everywhere and for Celtics fans looking for possible context to Doc's looming decision to start the season with a three SF starting lineup.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Sunday, September 24, 2006
Daryl Morey on Ainge's strategy
Before he left to become the new GM of the Houston Rockets, Daryl Morey was part the Celtics braintrust. One of those MBA-quantitative-analyst types, Morey liked to stop in as a guest speaker at stats classes at MIT.
He's apparently doing the same thing in Houston. The following is some notes that were typed up by a Rice student who claims to have sat through the a recent Morey lecture, as posted on the APBR message board. Further down the thread folks like Dean Oliver comment. For those interested in the Celtics, the final paragraph has some interest.
Those of us who spent some time speculating about possible Ron Artest, Allen Iverson and Kevin Garnett trades in the last year and have been thinking along these lines. We should all be hoping for monster years from Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair and Kendrick Perkins, since they have the upside to potentially bring back a legitimate All Star talent in a trade.
He's apparently doing the same thing in Houston. The following is some notes that were typed up by a Rice student who claims to have sat through the a recent Morey lecture, as posted on the APBR message board. Further down the thread folks like Dean Oliver comment. For those interested in the Celtics, the final paragraph has some interest.
The lecture just ended, and I figured I'd give you my update. It was only an hour with questions and all and was not done for a very knowledgeable (basketball-wise) audience, so it wasn’t revelatory or anything. But, he had some interesting things to say.
He said their goal was to be a championship-caliber team, meaning top 4. And his role is getting the right players and then optimizing those players. He talked about how baseball is highly measureable and linear and clean and easy, but basketball is harder because there are more things that are interdependent.
He said in basketball there are essentially four factors that are paramount: shooting percentage differential, free throw attempt differential, rebounding differential and turnover differential, with the shooting being by far the most important. And, he showed some statistics to this end. He also showed stats for teams with a dominant center, which had a heavier focus on percentage and FTA, and made turnovers basically inconsequential. He showed some stats from the championship teams and talked about how great Rudy was at maximizing the scoring percentage differential.
He then did a stacked column graph showing how a roster should be built compared to how the Rockets have been built in the past, ranking each player in importance and efficiency and graphing them on minutes played. One thing I thought was interesting from the ’06 graph was that he had Swift and Hayes higher in the pecking order than Howard (even though Howard had more minutes). In the ’06-’07 graph, they had swapped Yao and McGrady’s spots so that Yao was first. They didn’t list past them and Battier though for privacy’s sake.
He showed us a website he uses – a service called Synergy Sports Extranet – that provides data and video clips by player. We looked as Sebastian Telfair. The website breaks all of each player’s video down by type play, provides data on how good he is at it and provides all the video of each event. He said, knowing the strategy of the coach, you can look at the abilities of a prospective players in those areas where you can expect the coach would ask a lot in. He also pointed out that if you have a style that is uncommon, you can get players cheaper because the skills they have to offer are not in high demand.
To questions, he mentioned that:
• Van Gundy does a very good job of bringing the data they generate to the players and at translating that to what they do on the floor.
• Leadership is very important in basketball (unlike baseball), but it is very hard to quantify.
• Jeff can get above average rebounding with bad rebounders from a good scheme. He also said that the valuable and rare rebounders are the guys who can get the contested balls, and Hayes is very good at that.
• On the business side, most of the profit is made on the appreciation of the team. And, there is also a huge tax write-off in owning a team. Otherwise, owners want to not lose money, but cash flow takes a backseat to winning, generally.
• Winning is a virtuous cycle and losing is a vicious cycle. It is a dangerous game since you have to lose for draft picks, but not so much that you are the Hawks. He mentioned that since the Celtics only had 1 star, they were investing in a number of promising young guys in hopes of being able to package them for the second star next to Pierce. Still hasn’t happened.
Those of us who spent some time speculating about possible Ron Artest, Allen Iverson and Kevin Garnett trades in the last year and have been thinking along these lines. We should all be hoping for monster years from Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair and Kendrick Perkins, since they have the upside to potentially bring back a legitimate All Star talent in a trade.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
For whatever its worth
Chris Mannix over at SI has got lots of free time on his hands. He's an NBA writer and ran out of off season stuff to write about three months ago. I've got free time because I'm an NBA fan and its early September. Hence this post.
Today Mannix dreams up a 'six coaches on a hot seat' piece to fill some space at the end of a column.
My only reaction to this is that if Jerry Sloan were ever to leave Utah and still have a pulse then of course Doc Rivers should be fired in about 15 seconds.
Today Mannix dreams up a 'six coaches on a hot seat' piece to fill some space at the end of a column.
Six coaches on the hot seat
1. Doc Rivers, Boston
It's year three for Rivers and Paul Pierce isn't getting any younger. A playoff berth is a must.
2. Isiah Thomas, New York
Just how owner James Dolan will define improvement remains to be seen, but Thomas has to show he can win with the talent he assembled.
3. Eddie Jordan, Washington
Yes, Jordan signed a three-year extension but GM Ernie Grunfeld won't be afraid to pull the plug if the defense doesn't improve.
4. Jerry Sloan, Utah
Let's be clear: Larry Miller will never fire Sloan. But another year of mediocrity and Sloan will show himself the door.
5. Jeff Van Gundy, Houston
The talent is there. Van Gundy has to prove he can win outside of New York.
6. Sam Mitchell, Toronto
Don't be surprised if Mitchell is the first one to go. A slow start by the Raptors will give Bryan Colangelo all the cover he needs to bring in Phoenix assistant Marc Iavaroni.
My only reaction to this is that if Jerry Sloan were ever to leave Utah and still have a pulse then of course Doc Rivers should be fired in about 15 seconds.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
At last, some good news
I've been pretty consistently down on the state of the Celtics for most of this last season. Most of our recent draft picks impressively failed this last season to justify Ainge's optimism that they were on the verge of becoming above-average players. The Szczerbiak deal exchanged what I saw as two relatively tradable middling contracts (Ricky Davis, Mark Blount) for a single large, painful one. The free agent market and this last draft were largely barren of players that were going to really make a difference. Ownership seems unwilling to trade Pierce and unable to surround him with more than role players. It's been a good time for pessimism.
Yesterday brought a sliver of good news, for those who care about geeky things like payroll management. 21-year old center Kendrick Perkins is reported to be signing a four-year contract extension with the team that is relatively incentive-based. The guaranteed money comes in at only ~$4M/year, with incentives that might add another $1M/per. Despite having basically no basketball coverage for a couple of months it’s, surprise surprise, the Herald that breaks the story.
This is unconditionally good news for several reasons.
- The classic risk associated with drafting high school standouts is that you may have to pay them starters’ money before you know whether they can produce like one. With this deal the Celtics will have Perkins cost-controlled on a below-MLE contract for the first eight years of his career.
- Even if Perkins never becomes more than a solid rebounder and defender-- in effect a strictly average ~25 mpg NBA center-- he will be at least modestly underpaid for the life of this contract. Possible comps (Etan Thomas, Dan Gadzuric, Adonal Foyle, Jamaal Magloire) are all on contracts that pay $6-9M
- There was a real risk that if Perkins hit the free agent market next summer his price tag would have been bid up to the annual free agent fever that has led to 90% of NBA MLE signings being paid 25-50% more than they're worth. Under this scenario the Celtics either pay Perkins an inflated contract that hurts the team for the next 5~6 years (the 'Mark Blount' scenario) or sign-and-trade him and spend the next few seasons watching to see if a different draft pick will pan out (the 'Marcus Banks' scenario).
Time to come clean: during past debates about Celtics basketball I think I predicted that it would cost in the neighborhood of ~$8M to resign Perkins next summer. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong.
Perkins is 21-years old with real athletic potential. The Celtics now have him cost-controlled until he is 26. In two seasons he might be no better than Sam Dalembert, and making $6M less a year. If he can add an offensive, low-post game and/or become a top-shelf rebounder and defender the team will have a real asset on its hands. While we're talking about good news associated with a likely lifetime rotation player-- and not someone you build a strong playoff team around-- it’s still good news all the same.
Fake Edit: Hollinger's extension prediction also overshoots the mark:
Yesterday brought a sliver of good news, for those who care about geeky things like payroll management. 21-year old center Kendrick Perkins is reported to be signing a four-year contract extension with the team that is relatively incentive-based. The guaranteed money comes in at only ~$4M/year, with incentives that might add another $1M/per. Despite having basically no basketball coverage for a couple of months it’s, surprise surprise, the Herald that breaks the story.
This is unconditionally good news for several reasons.
- The classic risk associated with drafting high school standouts is that you may have to pay them starters’ money before you know whether they can produce like one. With this deal the Celtics will have Perkins cost-controlled on a below-MLE contract for the first eight years of his career.
- Even if Perkins never becomes more than a solid rebounder and defender-- in effect a strictly average ~25 mpg NBA center-- he will be at least modestly underpaid for the life of this contract. Possible comps (Etan Thomas, Dan Gadzuric, Adonal Foyle, Jamaal Magloire) are all on contracts that pay $6-9M
- There was a real risk that if Perkins hit the free agent market next summer his price tag would have been bid up to the annual free agent fever that has led to 90% of NBA MLE signings being paid 25-50% more than they're worth. Under this scenario the Celtics either pay Perkins an inflated contract that hurts the team for the next 5~6 years (the 'Mark Blount' scenario) or sign-and-trade him and spend the next few seasons watching to see if a different draft pick will pan out (the 'Marcus Banks' scenario).
Time to come clean: during past debates about Celtics basketball I think I predicted that it would cost in the neighborhood of ~$8M to resign Perkins next summer. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong.
Perkins is 21-years old with real athletic potential. The Celtics now have him cost-controlled until he is 26. In two seasons he might be no better than Sam Dalembert, and making $6M less a year. If he can add an offensive, low-post game and/or become a top-shelf rebounder and defender the team will have a real asset on its hands. While we're talking about good news associated with a likely lifetime rotation player-- and not someone you build a strong playoff team around-- it’s still good news all the same.
Fake Edit: Hollinger's extension prediction also overshoots the mark:
Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
Conditions are smiling upon the Celtics' young center, as $10 million-per-year deals for such middling centers as Nene Hilario, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry and Samuel Dalembert portend great wealth for the 21-year-old strongman. And unlike those others, Perkins is a bull in the paint who can punish opposing post players. As a result, the Celtics would probably rather overpay a little now than have to overpay a lot next summer.
Forecast: Five years, $30 million
Monday, September 11, 2006
Peter King: Clairvoyant or well informed?
In his Monday Morning Quarter Back column, Peter King observes
For reference: Javon Walker was traded to Denver for a second rounder and Donte Stallworth went for Simoneau and a 4th rounder. At first blush this deal with Seattle appears to be very good value for Branch.
It obviously doesn't help us at WR this year, but I'm not sure that was even our biggest problem yesterday. I'm only a semi-educated football scout, but our pass-blocking was absolutely awful in the first half. On many possessions our tackles and tight ends couldn't stay in front of Buffalos outside rush and Brady had almost no time to do anything with the ball. Brady was extremely classy about it in the papers this morning, making no mention of his offensive line and throwing himself under the bus over the whole thing. Is Branch an upgrade over Reche Caldwell? Sure. Given a choice between that upgrade or better execution by our O-line yesterday, however, I take the later.
Anyone who watched the whole season in '01 has to feel pretty good about where the Pats sit this morning.
EDIT: The Pats have reportedly one of the best rookie WRs of the last draft coming back from a minor ankle injury in the next couple of weeks. They also recently traded for Doug Gabriel, who was reported as starting in preseason on a Raiders team loaded with Randy Moss, Joey Porter and Ronald Curry. The Pats running game looked fantastic yesterday. I have no problem going forward with a two-TE power offense for several weeks, seeing if Gabriel or Johnson can provide 90% of Branch's productivity this season, and seeing what we get with a mid-1st round pick next spring.
EDIT 2: I'm deliberately staying away from CHB's highly unfortunate tangent into football this morning. It was a classic mailed-in piece where Shaughnessy simply took the easiest, laziest storylines (e.g. laying yesterday's passing attack woes on the absence of Deion) and cranked out a template CHB column, complete with comparisons to the Red Sox and shots at Patriots fans.
I think New England's much-too-tough win (51 receiving yards by wideouts) and Seattle's offensively punchless 9-6 win at Detroit say one thing to me: This Deion Branch thing has to get resolved one way or the other, and very, very soon. It's clear to me he's not going to report to the Patriots until at least Week 10 (so he gets his year of credited service toward free-agency), so New England has two choices. It can give in and pay him $6.5 million a year or so, erasing the current one-year, $1.05-million on his contract and starting over. Or it can rekindle talks to trade him. In my mind, Seattle, which has offered a second-round pick and a later draft choice, needs to get serious and step up and surrender its first-rounder in 2007 if it wants to get the deal done. I just don't see the Pats forgetting this year's dough and handing Branch six- or seven-percent of their salary cap.
For reference: Javon Walker was traded to Denver for a second rounder and Donte Stallworth went for Simoneau and a 4th rounder. At first blush this deal with Seattle appears to be very good value for Branch.
It obviously doesn't help us at WR this year, but I'm not sure that was even our biggest problem yesterday. I'm only a semi-educated football scout, but our pass-blocking was absolutely awful in the first half. On many possessions our tackles and tight ends couldn't stay in front of Buffalos outside rush and Brady had almost no time to do anything with the ball. Brady was extremely classy about it in the papers this morning, making no mention of his offensive line and throwing himself under the bus over the whole thing. Is Branch an upgrade over Reche Caldwell? Sure. Given a choice between that upgrade or better execution by our O-line yesterday, however, I take the later.
Anyone who watched the whole season in '01 has to feel pretty good about where the Pats sit this morning.
EDIT: The Pats have reportedly one of the best rookie WRs of the last draft coming back from a minor ankle injury in the next couple of weeks. They also recently traded for Doug Gabriel, who was reported as starting in preseason on a Raiders team loaded with Randy Moss, Joey Porter and Ronald Curry. The Pats running game looked fantastic yesterday. I have no problem going forward with a two-TE power offense for several weeks, seeing if Gabriel or Johnson can provide 90% of Branch's productivity this season, and seeing what we get with a mid-1st round pick next spring.
EDIT 2: I'm deliberately staying away from CHB's highly unfortunate tangent into football this morning. It was a classic mailed-in piece where Shaughnessy simply took the easiest, laziest storylines (e.g. laying yesterday's passing attack woes on the absence of Deion) and cranked out a template CHB column, complete with comparisons to the Red Sox and shots at Patriots fans.
Best of luck, Deion
Just walked down the street for lunch and the ESPN broadcast in the pizza place was reporting Deion Branch to the Seahawks for a 2007 #1 draft pick.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Are you ready for some football?
As we kick off our SweetDue fantasy football season, I thought I'd post my favorite "newsbreaker" from our new league manager service:
09/07/06 12:10 PMCouldn't have said it better myself.
THE NEWS
Tom Brady has had a phantom shoulder injury that has now lingered over three seasons. Brady appears on the Patriots week one injury report as "probable – shoulder."
Our View
Brady set what is believed to be a modern day record by being listed as "probable – shoulder" for 29 consecutive weeks until week 15 of last year, when he actually had a legitimate injury and was listed as questionable with a "right shoulder/shin" injury. There is obviously nothing wrong with his throwing arm, but it will be interesting to see if Bill Belichick continues treating his injury report like a joke all year. By week 17 Brady will be just one week away from the magical, and likely unbeatable, 50 mark. Good luck, Tom!
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