LAS VEGAS - Paul Pierce and the Celtics have reached agreement on a contract extension, a vital step for the club at this stage of its development.
Sources last night said the agreement was essentially completed late yesterday and that an announcement is forthcoming.
Danny Ainge said earlier yesterday that the sides were “just ironing out some of the final details,” and he reiterated that last night. But, according to a source, the largest of those issues were apparently resolved before Pierce’s agent, Jeff Schwartz, left Las Vegas in the late afternoon. It is known that Ainge and Schwartz spoke again yesterday.
Signing Pierce to a three-year extension that will take him through the end of the 2010-11 season is a critical step of stability for a team that is still in the building phase. He still has two years left on his present deal, but the fact the team captain is passing on the opportunity to end his contract after this season (and become a free agent) has to be seen as an endorsement for the club’s plan.
In terms of the financial stats, Pierce will complete his last contract by making $15,101,625 this season and $16,360,094 in 2007-08. The new portion of the pact will pay him nearly $60 million for three years.
Giving Pierce a new maximum contract requires no difficult decision on the part of the Celts.
“Paul’s been one of the great Celtics of all-time in my opinion - one of the top players to ever put on a Celtic uniform,” said Ainge. “He’s going into the prime of his career, and he’s still getting better. He got better last year from the year before.
“Most statistical breakdowns show guys play their best basketball from the time they’re 27 to 32. We get Paul from 28 to 33, so this is his prime. I think it’s important for us to get something done with him.”
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Pierce extended
Herald reports Paul has a new 3-year deal at $20M/per. Celtics clearly pay a premium to keep the new contract that short.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Video of Celtics VSL
Thanks to the miracle of YouTube, we have some highlights of the Celtics recent win over Toronto in the Vegas Summer League. At the 1:35 mark Telfair has an extremely pretty between-the-legs pass on the fast break to Gerald Green for a dunk.
Disclaimer #1: this is the summer league and the Celtics are playing people who will be lucky to have a starting job in Greece in six months
Disclaimer #2: the PA announcer in the background either needs to be heavily medicated, or shot. Consider watching on mute.
Disclaimer #1: this is the summer league and the Celtics are playing people who will be lucky to have a starting job in Greece in six months
Disclaimer #2: the PA announcer in the background either needs to be heavily medicated, or shot. Consider watching on mute.
Bulpett reports Pierce to resign
Paul is supposedly close to signing a three year contract extension that would keep him off the free agent market until age 33.
If true, this is a good deal for the Celtics. Unless he experiences some serious injuries and/or physical decline (always a risk) Pierce should still be an above-average player at the end of his contract. Even without seeing the details of his contract we can assume that he will be modestly overpaid by the end of this deal: that's one of the tradeoff's you make in the NBA world of relatively long-term, guarunteed deals. Today's news is good because, if true, the Celtics were able to keep this deal to a three-year extension, and not a full five- or six-year contract. Paying a 35-year old Pierce the back end of a such a max-dollar, escalating deal would almost certainly have gotten ugly.
Regardless of what Ainge thinks on the matter, ownership appears entirely committed to rebuilding while winning games around Pierce. We've been over the down-sides of this approach repeatedly. The good news if this extension goes through as reported is that we'll have dodged two potential bullets: first, that Pierce walks for nothing next summer; second, that we're stuck paying him Allen Iverson money until long past his prime.
The Celtics appear set to solidify Paul Pierce's future in Boston. While there may still be some details to be ironed out, expect an announcement in the next day or two that the captain has agreed to a three-year extension with the club. Pierce has two years remaining on his present deal and will thus forego his option to sever the contract next summer and become an unrestricted free agent. The issue of Pierce taking off for a team closer to a championship has been raised quite a bit lately, but apparently he was serious about wanting to stay with the Celtics and continue the building process. While it is likely to contain an early out clause, the new arrangement will cover him through the end of the 2010-11 season.
If true, this is a good deal for the Celtics. Unless he experiences some serious injuries and/or physical decline (always a risk) Pierce should still be an above-average player at the end of his contract. Even without seeing the details of his contract we can assume that he will be modestly overpaid by the end of this deal: that's one of the tradeoff's you make in the NBA world of relatively long-term, guarunteed deals. Today's news is good because, if true, the Celtics were able to keep this deal to a three-year extension, and not a full five- or six-year contract. Paying a 35-year old Pierce the back end of a such a max-dollar, escalating deal would almost certainly have gotten ugly.
Regardless of what Ainge thinks on the matter, ownership appears entirely committed to rebuilding while winning games around Pierce. We've been over the down-sides of this approach repeatedly. The good news if this extension goes through as reported is that we'll have dodged two potential bullets: first, that Pierce walks for nothing next summer; second, that we're stuck paying him Allen Iverson money until long past his prime.
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
An introduction to the point
Charley Rosen has an off-season piece up today running through the requirements of the point guard position. In some ways its classic Rosen. For one thing, Charley goes through everything that might be asked of a point guard and classifies each a 'must'. Off the cuff I would guess that less than 10 players in the NBA meet Charley's criteria for an acceptible point. Of course, nothing but perfection is really acceptible to former coach Rosen, which is why his in-season articles are overwhelmingly critical of all but the very best teams and players. I'm not knocking him: unlike most other sports journalists he's actually interested in writing about the details of the game; which for this fan is much appreciated.
Rosen observes that on offense
Those who followed the Celtics last season will have little difficulty spotting the multiple places on this list where Marcus Banks was, and Delonte West is, lacking. Delonte, for all his strengths, can only deliver on about half of Rosen's 'musts'. Marcus Banks was/is a walking liability to make every bad decision here and then some. These are just both player's offensive liabilities.
Not surprisingly, Ainge has been rumored over the last year to be involved in almost every PG on the trade market (e.g. Andre Miller, Allen Iverson, etc.) and then picks up Telfair and Rondo on draft night. Both come advertised as something well short of what Rosen would call acceptible.
Rosen observes that on offense
Points must also have a firm conceptual grasp of the totality of the game at hand... the point guard must be aware of every matchup, the score, and the clocks. Plus, he must know how many timeouts are available to each team. Even the tendencies of the refs.
Obviously, since the No. 1 is responsible for safely carrying the ball into the attack zone, he must be a superior ball-handler and passer with a well developed off hand. What's more if he's playing with go-to scorer who's routinely two-timed, the No. 1 must also be an efficient outside shooter.
What other offensive skills must he command?
+ Utilizing screen/rolls to the max.
+ Being able to penetrate well enough to compel the defense to send help.
+ Being able to finish in heavy traffic, which usually means having some kind of high-arcing flip shot that can be released in a hurry while the converging bigs are still gathering to jump.
+ Making sure to reward a big with an appropriate pass whenever he runs the court.
On the flip side, however transcendent a No.1's talent level might be, his effectiveness (and playing time) will be limited if he's prone to making bad decisions. Such as:
- Making the wrong (or even right) pass at the wrong time to the wrong teammate.
- Forcing a fast break.
- Over-penetrating and getting caught in a spot where there's limited air space in which to either pass or shoot.
- Shooting too much or too quickly (in the shot clock) while under too much defensive pressure.
- Forcing passes into crowds.
- Being oblivious to opponents looking to ambush passing lanes.
- Not being aware of the shot clock, the matchups, and/or which opponents might be in foul trouble.
- Failing to properly position the ball so that the designated play can be undertaken with the appropriate timing and spacing.
Moreover, history proves that teams led by shoot-first point guards are more pretenders than contenders. No NBA team has ever won a championship when its No. 1 has led the league in scoring. And only three teams have won titles when their point guard was also their leading scorer — Isiah Thomas with Detroit in 1990, Magic Johnson with the Lakers in 1987, and Walt Frazier with New York in 1973.
Those who followed the Celtics last season will have little difficulty spotting the multiple places on this list where Marcus Banks was, and Delonte West is, lacking. Delonte, for all his strengths, can only deliver on about half of Rosen's 'musts'. Marcus Banks was/is a walking liability to make every bad decision here and then some. These are just both player's offensive liabilities.
Not surprisingly, Ainge has been rumored over the last year to be involved in almost every PG on the trade market (e.g. Andre Miller, Allen Iverson, etc.) and then picks up Telfair and Rondo on draft night. Both come advertised as something well short of what Rosen would call acceptible.
Good for him
In the summer of 2003 Mike James was a classic fringe NBA player. Someone who was too small to play defense on shooting guards but without any point guard skills whatsoever, James was a free agent the Miami Heat had little/no interest in resigning. Watching him as the #2 offensive option in Toronto this last season I routinely couldn't freaking believe we were talking about the same player.
After signing him at the end of the summer the Celtics exchanged James for Chucky Atkins two-thirds of the way through the 03-04 season (in the infamous Rasheed Wallace deal) and we looked worlds better on offense right away. You know you're a lousy PG when Chucky Atkins is a big immediate improvement. James had an early season game in the fall of '03(I can't remember the opponent now) when he hit the winning a shot at the buzzer and it seemed to ruin him for the year. He spent the rest of his time in Boston charging uncontrollably into the lane and too often turning the ball over in a crowd. That and standing around for the first 15 seconds of the shot clock doing nothing are my primary memories of the Mike James PG experiment. He, Pierce and Davis looked awful together; like a bad pick-up team of guys who all want to shot, don't care much for team defense, but are all good enough that everyone defers to them anyway. This was during the (to date) low point of Pierce's career and he looked miserable through lots of it.
Now James is on to his 7th team in 6 years-- and paired with Ricky again-- but this time will get $6M+ for his efforts. The guy has certainly worked hard enough on his career. Nice for him that his retirement just got a whole lot better.
At the same time I'm not sure how this TWolves team comes together. If Foye lives up to his billing they'll have three pretty identical players in their backcourt, but not one of them a point guard who can make his teammates better. McHale has spent the last several years trying to add talent through free agency, and getting nothing from the draft. It's left him with a roster of over-paid rotation players many of whom are on the downside of their careers. Will the soon-to-be-32-year old James be much different? I wouldn't count on it.
After signing him at the end of the summer the Celtics exchanged James for Chucky Atkins two-thirds of the way through the 03-04 season (in the infamous Rasheed Wallace deal) and we looked worlds better on offense right away. You know you're a lousy PG when Chucky Atkins is a big immediate improvement. James had an early season game in the fall of '03(I can't remember the opponent now) when he hit the winning a shot at the buzzer and it seemed to ruin him for the year. He spent the rest of his time in Boston charging uncontrollably into the lane and too often turning the ball over in a crowd. That and standing around for the first 15 seconds of the shot clock doing nothing are my primary memories of the Mike James PG experiment. He, Pierce and Davis looked awful together; like a bad pick-up team of guys who all want to shot, don't care much for team defense, but are all good enough that everyone defers to them anyway. This was during the (to date) low point of Pierce's career and he looked miserable through lots of it.
Now James is on to his 7th team in 6 years-- and paired with Ricky again-- but this time will get $6M+ for his efforts. The guy has certainly worked hard enough on his career. Nice for him that his retirement just got a whole lot better.
At the same time I'm not sure how this TWolves team comes together. If Foye lives up to his billing they'll have three pretty identical players in their backcourt, but not one of them a point guard who can make his teammates better. McHale has spent the last several years trying to add talent through free agency, and getting nothing from the draft. It's left him with a roster of over-paid rotation players many of whom are on the downside of their careers. Will the soon-to-be-32-year old James be much different? I wouldn't count on it.
Saturday, July 08, 2006
Best of the World Cup.
The Guardian has its best and worst of the World Cup, and a couple items are of note:
But for the best song, I'm still fond of "Steve Gerrard."Best song
USA
'One Superpower, there's only one Superpower', to the tune of 'Guantanamera' - The Girl from Guantanamo Bay. And England's 'I'd rather be a cabbage than a Swede'.
Best predictionBoston Globe
Pre-tournament guide, Boston Globe: 'ENGLAND: like the New York Mets. Massively, ridiculously overrated by their media, always involved in some sort of comic downfall, insane injuries, woeful management. A car crash waiting to happen, at which stage the local media go berserk.'
Friday, July 07, 2006
World cup speculation
A recurrent topic at work the last few weeks has been what the US World Cup team would look like if soccer were the #1 sport in the US. Simmons mentions this in passing during his 'Top 40' NBA column.
Some of my thoughts so far:
Strikers: Reggie Bush, Allen Iverson
Midfield: LeBron James, Michael Vick, Randy Moss
Defense: ARod, Amare Stoudemire, Ty Law
Goalie: Kevin Garnett
But then, I know a lot less about soccer than other people on this board
Some of my thoughts so far:
Strikers: Reggie Bush, Allen Iverson
Midfield: LeBron James, Michael Vick, Randy Moss
Defense: ARod, Amare Stoudemire, Ty Law
Goalie: Kevin Garnett
But then, I know a lot less about soccer than other people on this board
Simmons' Column
As an NBA junkie I've always enjoyed reading Bill Simmons' annual trade value column, and I love to laugh at the Celtics and Clippers that Simmons overrates. This year's highlights:
Chris Kaman (#39) over Devin Harris, Tayshaun Prince, and 50 other guys who didn't make the list?
Shaun Livingston (#27) over Kirilenko, Hinrich, Tony Parker, Michael Redd and many more? The Clippers can only hope that Livingston becomes the PG that Parker and Hinrich are now.
Paul Pierce (#18) over Shawn Marion? Marion got a bunch of MVP votes this year.
Chris Kaman (#39) over Devin Harris, Tayshaun Prince, and 50 other guys who didn't make the list?
Shaun Livingston (#27) over Kirilenko, Hinrich, Tony Parker, Michael Redd and many more? The Clippers can only hope that Livingston becomes the PG that Parker and Hinrich are now.
Paul Pierce (#18) over Shawn Marion? Marion got a bunch of MVP votes this year.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Monster feeding.
Seth Mnookin, author of the about-to-be-released Feeding The Monster, an account of the Red Sox' recent success, has a blog on which he has been posting some out-takes of his interviews with people like Nomar Garciaparra and Curt Schilling.
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Da Bulls
I suppose it's time for me to gloat or cheer. That's what TS expects, I know it. But I've given all of you a hard time for drinking the Kool-Aid and seeing the bright side of even the worst Celtics deals, so I'm going to take my own advice and give you a neutral analysis of the Wallace acquisition and the state of the Bulls.
My take: Wallace is not at all what the Bulls need right now. We need a top-flight scorer in the worst way ... at crunch time, we rely on Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni to score. 'nuff said. We also need some sort of presence in the post. Wallace provides us with none of that.
In fact, what big Ben gives the Bulls is more of what we already have. The Bulls were the best defensive team in the NBA last season, and picked up its top defender. At a certain point, there begins to be diminishing marginal returns to more defense.
In fact, the NBA is evolving away from players like Ben Wallace. A few years ago, the Pistons were the right model to use to build a team. Tough, bruising interior defense won championships. But the rules changes have made the game more scorer-friendly, more guard-friendly, and more slash-to-the-basket friendly. In the playoffs, big Ben was often on the sidelines and wasn't a dominating force. In fact his weak shooting made him a liability at times.
And, of course, we overpaid for him. He's not worth $15+ million a season. And he's already 31, so he'll be 35 in the last year of his deal. Not good.
The bottom line is that in a vacuum, the Wallace deal is not the right move for the Bulls to make. He's not what we need, he's too expensive, and he's aging. The "smart" move would have been to sign Pryzbilla and wait for the right trade.
But I like this move. A lot. Why? A few reasons:
1) We didn't have a better alternative. Our cap room would have been worth a lot less next season, because we will have players to re-sign and couldn't keep our cap room open forever. If we didn't get Wallace, we would have had to sign Pryzbilla or Mohammed and hope we could use the rest of our cap room to work out a trade. Wallace is by far the best player available--there isn't a better player on the FA market, and it is increasingly clear that no one like Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, or Marion is available via trade. Wallace is the best we could get with that cap room.
2) We got an impact player. Yes, the game has changed. But there's no doubt that Wallace is a very good basketball player, no matter how you slice it. His PER was 17.54 last season, his "fair salary" rating was $14.26 million, and he was worth 32 win shares. He's won the Defensive Player of the Year award four of the last five seasons. He's been to the All-Star Game each of the last four years. Getting an impact player through the draft is a gamble, and getting one in trade usually means giving up a lot in return. We added one for "free." Maybe worth overpaying for.
3) Because he's a big, we didn't overpay as badly as it seems. Big players often command a premium. Nene just signed a six-year, $60 million deal. The Bulls signed Tyson Chandler to a six-year, $63 million deal just a season ago. Since this is only a four-year deal, the hope is that he'll have some value in seasons three and four (with a soon-to-expire contract) if things don't work out as planned.
4) We cripple a division rival at the same time. It's hard to believe that the Pistons will be able to compete for the East crown without Wallace, given that they already were pretty thin. On pure Win Shares alone, going from Wallace to Mohammed should mean six fewer wins.
5) Wallace has great intangibles. The Bulls are all about intangibles nowadays. They only will draft hard workers, gym rats, etc. They were willing to sit Tim Thomas and lose him for nothing rather than have a lazy player ruin their team persona and chemistry. By all accounts Ben Wallace fits right into the Bulls' mold. Plus his veteran leadership and character should help the Bulls develop. As icing on the cake, he should help us get better calls from the officials. (We can only hope.)
So given the context, I think this was a good move overall. The rumor is that Paxson wanted to get Pryzbilla but Reinsdorf pushed him to go all-in for Wallace. I like the move and I think it was the best alternative we had, given that players like Garnett weren't available. So what does this mean for the Bulls? A few thoughts:
1) Wallace makes Chandler expandable. Now the Bulls have to find a buyer for Chandler. Yes, his value has never been lower, but we're going to need some money to re-sign our young guys and it's unlikely that we would ever play two no-offense players like Chandler and Wallace together. Hopefully the Bulls end up getting more than P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith, but I'd take that deal if nothing else materialized.
2) We're keeping Tyrus Thomas. There was a lot of speculation that the Bulls took Thomas in order to package him to the T-Wolves for Garnett. He certainly seemed redundant on a team that already had Chandler, Nocioni, and Deng competing for minutes at the 3 and 4. Now that we have no cap space, and with Chandler gone, it looks more likely that we'll keep Thomas. That makes me happy, because I think he will be by far the best player in the draft long-term. He can handle the ball like a guard, he's a tough and brutal defender, he's extremely athletic, and he plays like a seven-footer.
3) We won't make a trade for another impact player. Despite ridiculous reports to the contrary, the Wallace signing makes a Garnett trade far less likely. Now that the Bulls are capped out, we have to match salaries with the T-Wolves in any trade. I hope the Bulls make a deal for a post player or a big guard, and I expect they will, but it will more likely be someone like P.J. Brown than Kevin Garnett.
All in all, the Bulls' future still looks as bright as it did before draft night. With two lottery picks and Ben Wallace joining a playoff team that is young and still developing, this team could make noise in the East next season. Talk of contending for the East crown is too optimistic, in my opinion, but this season will be a disappointment unless the Bulls have home court in the first round and make it into the second round.
My take: Wallace is not at all what the Bulls need right now. We need a top-flight scorer in the worst way ... at crunch time, we rely on Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni to score. 'nuff said. We also need some sort of presence in the post. Wallace provides us with none of that.
In fact, what big Ben gives the Bulls is more of what we already have. The Bulls were the best defensive team in the NBA last season, and picked up its top defender. At a certain point, there begins to be diminishing marginal returns to more defense.
In fact, the NBA is evolving away from players like Ben Wallace. A few years ago, the Pistons were the right model to use to build a team. Tough, bruising interior defense won championships. But the rules changes have made the game more scorer-friendly, more guard-friendly, and more slash-to-the-basket friendly. In the playoffs, big Ben was often on the sidelines and wasn't a dominating force. In fact his weak shooting made him a liability at times.
And, of course, we overpaid for him. He's not worth $15+ million a season. And he's already 31, so he'll be 35 in the last year of his deal. Not good.
The bottom line is that in a vacuum, the Wallace deal is not the right move for the Bulls to make. He's not what we need, he's too expensive, and he's aging. The "smart" move would have been to sign Pryzbilla and wait for the right trade.
But I like this move. A lot. Why? A few reasons:
1) We didn't have a better alternative. Our cap room would have been worth a lot less next season, because we will have players to re-sign and couldn't keep our cap room open forever. If we didn't get Wallace, we would have had to sign Pryzbilla or Mohammed and hope we could use the rest of our cap room to work out a trade. Wallace is by far the best player available--there isn't a better player on the FA market, and it is increasingly clear that no one like Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, or Marion is available via trade. Wallace is the best we could get with that cap room.
2) We got an impact player. Yes, the game has changed. But there's no doubt that Wallace is a very good basketball player, no matter how you slice it. His PER was 17.54 last season, his "fair salary" rating was $14.26 million, and he was worth 32 win shares. He's won the Defensive Player of the Year award four of the last five seasons. He's been to the All-Star Game each of the last four years. Getting an impact player through the draft is a gamble, and getting one in trade usually means giving up a lot in return. We added one for "free." Maybe worth overpaying for.
3) Because he's a big, we didn't overpay as badly as it seems. Big players often command a premium. Nene just signed a six-year, $60 million deal. The Bulls signed Tyson Chandler to a six-year, $63 million deal just a season ago. Since this is only a four-year deal, the hope is that he'll have some value in seasons three and four (with a soon-to-expire contract) if things don't work out as planned.
4) We cripple a division rival at the same time. It's hard to believe that the Pistons will be able to compete for the East crown without Wallace, given that they already were pretty thin. On pure Win Shares alone, going from Wallace to Mohammed should mean six fewer wins.
5) Wallace has great intangibles. The Bulls are all about intangibles nowadays. They only will draft hard workers, gym rats, etc. They were willing to sit Tim Thomas and lose him for nothing rather than have a lazy player ruin their team persona and chemistry. By all accounts Ben Wallace fits right into the Bulls' mold. Plus his veteran leadership and character should help the Bulls develop. As icing on the cake, he should help us get better calls from the officials. (We can only hope.)
So given the context, I think this was a good move overall. The rumor is that Paxson wanted to get Pryzbilla but Reinsdorf pushed him to go all-in for Wallace. I like the move and I think it was the best alternative we had, given that players like Garnett weren't available. So what does this mean for the Bulls? A few thoughts:
1) Wallace makes Chandler expandable. Now the Bulls have to find a buyer for Chandler. Yes, his value has never been lower, but we're going to need some money to re-sign our young guys and it's unlikely that we would ever play two no-offense players like Chandler and Wallace together. Hopefully the Bulls end up getting more than P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith, but I'd take that deal if nothing else materialized.
2) We're keeping Tyrus Thomas. There was a lot of speculation that the Bulls took Thomas in order to package him to the T-Wolves for Garnett. He certainly seemed redundant on a team that already had Chandler, Nocioni, and Deng competing for minutes at the 3 and 4. Now that we have no cap space, and with Chandler gone, it looks more likely that we'll keep Thomas. That makes me happy, because I think he will be by far the best player in the draft long-term. He can handle the ball like a guard, he's a tough and brutal defender, he's extremely athletic, and he plays like a seven-footer.
3) We won't make a trade for another impact player. Despite ridiculous reports to the contrary, the Wallace signing makes a Garnett trade far less likely. Now that the Bulls are capped out, we have to match salaries with the T-Wolves in any trade. I hope the Bulls make a deal for a post player or a big guard, and I expect they will, but it will more likely be someone like P.J. Brown than Kevin Garnett.
All in all, the Bulls' future still looks as bright as it did before draft night. With two lottery picks and Ben Wallace joining a playoff team that is young and still developing, this team could make noise in the East next season. Talk of contending for the East crown is too optimistic, in my opinion, but this season will be a disappointment unless the Bulls have home court in the first round and make it into the second round.
Monday, July 03, 2006
And in other free agent news
I'm slow to comment on it here, but the big story before Ben Wallace jumping ship was Peja agreeing to a deal with the Hornets.
1) Boy, did the Artest implosion go badly for Bird. They waste two years on the guy and then trade him for a four-month Peja rental that gets them nowhere in the playoffs. By all accounts the Pacers had tuned out Carlisle well before the end of the season, Bird is pissed at half the team, and now he can't even work a sign-and-trade to get something from Stojakovic jumping ship. Ouch, babe.
2) Bird and Walsh's decision to only negotiate with West Conference teams-- on the assumption the Pacers would be a power in the playoffs and so would Artest's new 'mates-- sure looks like a poor one now. Think they'd rather go with that Ricky Davis/Marcus Banks/picks deal that was floating around?
3) Funny how having a great PG on your team makes you a whole lot more attractive to certain NBA free agents. How big a pull for Peja do you think was the upgrade from Anthony Johnson to Chris Paul? With Cedric Simmons, Hilton Armstrong, and now Peja NO/OK is becoming an interesting team.
1) Boy, did the Artest implosion go badly for Bird. They waste two years on the guy and then trade him for a four-month Peja rental that gets them nowhere in the playoffs. By all accounts the Pacers had tuned out Carlisle well before the end of the season, Bird is pissed at half the team, and now he can't even work a sign-and-trade to get something from Stojakovic jumping ship. Ouch, babe.
2) Bird and Walsh's decision to only negotiate with West Conference teams-- on the assumption the Pacers would be a power in the playoffs and so would Artest's new 'mates-- sure looks like a poor one now. Think they'd rather go with that Ricky Davis/Marcus Banks/picks deal that was floating around?
3) Funny how having a great PG on your team makes you a whole lot more attractive to certain NBA free agents. How big a pull for Peja do you think was the upgrade from Anthony Johnson to Chris Paul? With Cedric Simmons, Hilton Armstrong, and now Peja NO/OK is becoming an interesting team.
GM posturing: signs and symptoms
In almost every interview Ainge gave before the NBA draft he talked about how much he believed in players who could shoot the ball. Whatever their other flaws, Ainge explained, players who could shot always put pressure on the defense, always contributed something on the court. How, you might ask, since only one player can shot per possession? Sush! True sports journalists just print what their sources tell them: thinking for yourself is not allowed. You wanna get fired like David Aldridge?
For weeks we got to hear speculation about the Celtics trading down to take J.J.Redick, or lusting after Adam Morrison. What does Ainge do on draft day? He takes two PGs with tremendous potential whose overwhelming liability is supposed to be their poor shooting. Hmmm, funny how that worked out.
Don't ask me why all this comes to mind as I read in today's Herald:
Hah hah ha ha ha ha...
"O’Neal is said to be on the lower end of the Celts’ wish list"
...Hah hah ha ha... Oh, stop it, you're killing me...
For weeks we got to hear speculation about the Celtics trading down to take J.J.Redick, or lusting after Adam Morrison. What does Ainge do on draft day? He takes two PGs with tremendous potential whose overwhelming liability is supposed to be their poor shooting. Hmmm, funny how that worked out.
Don't ask me why all this comes to mind as I read in today's Herald:
The Celtics are still in the hunt for Allen Iverson, but after taking some steps forward with their moves on draft day, they have grown a bit wary of giving too much up for the 76ers star.
According to league sources, the Celts are willing to let Philadelphia complete its check of the marketplace before making a final offer. And with the 76ers possibly needing to wait until the July 12 start of the free agent signing period (in case one of the returning players must be part of a sign-and-trade) to facilitate a multiteam deal, there appears to be some time to work things out.
The Celtics also are said to have varying degrees of interest in New Jersey’s Richard Jefferson, Seattle’s Rashard Lewis, Indiana’s Jermaine O’Neal and Phoenix’ Shawn Marion. But sources weren’t so sure the Nets would part with Jefferson, and O’Neal is said to be on the lower end of the Celts’ wish list.
The key has become how much the C’s must surrender to get a veteran who fits.
Director of basketball operations Danny Ainge said Wednesday that his team’s biggest need is experience, and while he acknowledged yesterday that the C’s are now in better position to withstand a 2- or 3-for-1 trade, he doesn’t want to overspend unless he’s convinced the impact warrants it.
Hah hah ha ha ha ha...
"O’Neal is said to be on the lower end of the Celts’ wish list"
...Hah hah ha ha... Oh, stop it, you're killing me...
What does cap space get you, anyway?
Multiple news outlets report the Bulls just signed Big Ben Wallace to a 4-year, $52M deal.
If they keep Tyson Chandler (which is doubtful) the Bulls might just have the best rebounding, defensive frontcourt in the league. All they'd need is to bring in Pat Riley and go back in time to the mid-90s and they'd be set.
It's probably safe to assume Chandler is gone before the end of the summer.
Is it too late for the Pistons to retract the trade dumping Darko on the Magic? The Pistons can suddenly afford to resign him now.
If they keep Tyson Chandler (which is doubtful) the Bulls might just have the best rebounding, defensive frontcourt in the league. All they'd need is to bring in Pat Riley and go back in time to the mid-90s and they'd be set.
It's probably safe to assume Chandler is gone before the end of the summer.
Is it too late for the Pistons to retract the trade dumping Darko on the Magic? The Pistons can suddenly afford to resign him now.
Spotted this morning.
Red Dodge station wagon with a Patriots license plate frame around Virginia plates reading: BRUSCHI.
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Iverson
Now to the other big Celtics story
The published and unpublished reports are that the 76ers are determined to move AI before the start of the season. Ainge had conversations before the draft that had to involved moving Raef or Wally (the two big contracts) plus various young players and/or picks.
I'll admit to completely conflicting sentiments about this.
On one hand, from a pure talent/productivity standpoint, trading away Wally/Ratliff and getting back Iverson (if those are the only substantial pieces to this) is an absolute no-brainer. I love Iverson's insane competitiveness and drive. If only he'd gone into an individual sport, instead of one with all those annoying team-mates and coaches, he'd no doubt be a world champion. He's clearly one of the top 20 players in the game, and would be deadly next to Pierce in a half-court setting. Anyone who can average 33 points and 8 assists is doing something right.
At the same time Iverson insists on having the ball during something like 70% of his team's total time of possession and 100% of crunch time. He has absolutely failed to get along with every other good/great player he's ever been paired with. He has consistently been an absolute coach-killer. He refuses to practice. There's no evidence that he makes anyone on the court better. I could go on. The only time Philly went to the Finals was a year (2001) that the Eastern Conference was awful and they were succesfully able to surround AI with role players that played manical defense, rebounded, and got out of his way on offense. That doesn't describe the current Celtics roster. Leaving aside his talent AI's rap sheet reads even worse than the "bad Pierce" that so many people were complaining about ~18 months ago.
I just don't see how he and Pierce do more than tolerate each other on the court. This trade has as much a chance of ending up like a Stephon Marbury/Steve Francis pairing as a playoff berth. Great for a rotisserie league, lousy in real life. Before this rumor broke I would have said that the Celtics biggest needs were: interior defense, perimeter defense, post scoring, and better PG play. Despite the fact that this describes something like 75% of the game, Iverson gets you none of them.
This exact dynamic, though, seems to be depressing his value around the league. Iverson is a top 50 all-time NBA player and the only other teams interested are Memphis, Golden State, Denver and Atlanta. Are you kidding me? Even with all I said above, if you can get Iverson for .50 cents on the dollar and give the Celtics a good chance to catapult into a 50 win team, I'm not sure you can turn that down.
Here's the thing, though: You can't overpay for someone. If only Memphis, Golden State, Denver and Atlanta are interested and we can far and away make a better offer than all of those teams with the possible exception of Atlanta, who has no No. 1 pick next year because it's already promised to Phoenix. Would Atlanta be dumb enough to trade Marvin Williams AND Josh Smith to Philly for a 31 year old guy with some miles on him? I don't think so.
I have to say, it strikes me as a Dan Duquette/Lou Gorman type move to overpay now for AI. From what little I saw I thought AI slipped noticeably on the defensive end last season and the new rules didn't have as big of an impact on his game as they did for Arenas, Kobe and others. In addition, smaller players who take a ton of contact just don't last that long in this league. Look at guys like Tiny Archibald, Isiah, Mo Cheeks, Kevin Johnson and others: they all slowed down noticeably when they hit 31-32. The mitigating factor is that Iverson is such a unique player and athlete, maybe he's just indestructable, but he does not take care of his body and there have always been rumors dogging him that he goes out every night, gets 2-3 hours of sleep, refuses to care about nutrition or exercise, etc etc. He's averaged something like 65 games a year for the last 7, so he's just not that durable. Finally, I suspect he would walk all over Doc.
And then there's this: The market for AI will be much more reasonable in December and January when Philly sucks and he starts pushing to leave... it never, ever makes sense to trade for someone who's on the block in July. Teams always get more desperate near the start of trading camp or during the season. I would offer Rondo, Green, Ratliff and a lottery protected No. 1. And that would be it. If Philly doesn't take it that's fine, you walk away happy. But I really don't think Philly can do better than that. Giving up Green and Jefferson and Rondo/Telfair seems absolutely insane. It's a Lou Gorman move.
The problem with it is there's no free agent that will help us this year, with AI we would be over the cap next year, and we would have used all our trading chips. So there would be no real way to get a third impact guy, with no one left on the roster with the potential to become one.
If Iverson really does want to come here, we're better off having him be pissed that a trade didn't happen, then sabotaging his Philly situation a la Vince Carter. If you're AI, Boston is the ideal place for you - another top-15 player as wingman, good young players willing to play in your shadow, close to home. My vote: If they don't accept Rondo-Green-Ratliff-No. 1, wait until the season starts and then make another run.
The published and unpublished reports are that the 76ers are determined to move AI before the start of the season. Ainge had conversations before the draft that had to involved moving Raef or Wally (the two big contracts) plus various young players and/or picks.
I'll admit to completely conflicting sentiments about this.
On one hand, from a pure talent/productivity standpoint, trading away Wally/Ratliff and getting back Iverson (if those are the only substantial pieces to this) is an absolute no-brainer. I love Iverson's insane competitiveness and drive. If only he'd gone into an individual sport, instead of one with all those annoying team-mates and coaches, he'd no doubt be a world champion. He's clearly one of the top 20 players in the game, and would be deadly next to Pierce in a half-court setting. Anyone who can average 33 points and 8 assists is doing something right.
At the same time Iverson insists on having the ball during something like 70% of his team's total time of possession and 100% of crunch time. He has absolutely failed to get along with every other good/great player he's ever been paired with. He has consistently been an absolute coach-killer. He refuses to practice. There's no evidence that he makes anyone on the court better. I could go on. The only time Philly went to the Finals was a year (2001) that the Eastern Conference was awful and they were succesfully able to surround AI with role players that played manical defense, rebounded, and got out of his way on offense. That doesn't describe the current Celtics roster. Leaving aside his talent AI's rap sheet reads even worse than the "bad Pierce" that so many people were complaining about ~18 months ago.
I just don't see how he and Pierce do more than tolerate each other on the court. This trade has as much a chance of ending up like a Stephon Marbury/Steve Francis pairing as a playoff berth. Great for a rotisserie league, lousy in real life. Before this rumor broke I would have said that the Celtics biggest needs were: interior defense, perimeter defense, post scoring, and better PG play. Despite the fact that this describes something like 75% of the game, Iverson gets you none of them.
This exact dynamic, though, seems to be depressing his value around the league. Iverson is a top 50 all-time NBA player and the only other teams interested are Memphis, Golden State, Denver and Atlanta. Are you kidding me? Even with all I said above, if you can get Iverson for .50 cents on the dollar and give the Celtics a good chance to catapult into a 50 win team, I'm not sure you can turn that down.
Here's the thing, though: You can't overpay for someone. If only Memphis, Golden State, Denver and Atlanta are interested and we can far and away make a better offer than all of those teams with the possible exception of Atlanta, who has no No. 1 pick next year because it's already promised to Phoenix. Would Atlanta be dumb enough to trade Marvin Williams AND Josh Smith to Philly for a 31 year old guy with some miles on him? I don't think so.
I have to say, it strikes me as a Dan Duquette/Lou Gorman type move to overpay now for AI. From what little I saw I thought AI slipped noticeably on the defensive end last season and the new rules didn't have as big of an impact on his game as they did for Arenas, Kobe and others. In addition, smaller players who take a ton of contact just don't last that long in this league. Look at guys like Tiny Archibald, Isiah, Mo Cheeks, Kevin Johnson and others: they all slowed down noticeably when they hit 31-32. The mitigating factor is that Iverson is such a unique player and athlete, maybe he's just indestructable, but he does not take care of his body and there have always been rumors dogging him that he goes out every night, gets 2-3 hours of sleep, refuses to care about nutrition or exercise, etc etc. He's averaged something like 65 games a year for the last 7, so he's just not that durable. Finally, I suspect he would walk all over Doc.
And then there's this: The market for AI will be much more reasonable in December and January when Philly sucks and he starts pushing to leave... it never, ever makes sense to trade for someone who's on the block in July. Teams always get more desperate near the start of trading camp or during the season. I would offer Rondo, Green, Ratliff and a lottery protected No. 1. And that would be it. If Philly doesn't take it that's fine, you walk away happy. But I really don't think Philly can do better than that. Giving up Green and Jefferson and Rondo/Telfair seems absolutely insane. It's a Lou Gorman move.
The problem with it is there's no free agent that will help us this year, with AI we would be over the cap next year, and we would have used all our trading chips. So there would be no real way to get a third impact guy, with no one left on the roster with the potential to become one.
If Iverson really does want to come here, we're better off having him be pissed that a trade didn't happen, then sabotaging his Philly situation a la Vince Carter. If you're AI, Boston is the ideal place for you - another top-15 player as wingman, good young players willing to play in your shadow, close to home. My vote: If they don't accept Rondo-Green-Ratliff-No. 1, wait until the season starts and then make another run.
Saturday, July 01, 2006
Post-draft thoughts (3 of 3)
Finally, another B. sent along this email about Telfair. It's second-hand to me, third-hand to all of you.
Coaching Varsity Basketball in New York State does not qualify me as a super NBA scout, but I do have a pretty good knowledge of basketball. I just wanted to share with you a few incidents regarding Sebastian Telfair that most people probably have never heard about. Every year the New York City champions travel to Upstate New York and play for the Federation title at the Glens Falls Civic Center. Three years in a row Sebastian Telfair led his team to New York City Public School titles. This is something that has never happened before and likely never will again. He also won a Federation title as a junior and then lost as a senior in his last high school game vs Mount Vernon, a team featuring five future division one players.
Three different occurances at the Federation Tourney sum up what type of kid Sebastian Telfair is and how different he is from 99% of the McDonald's All american types we see nowadays.
A) In his Junior year Telfair led his team to the Federation title and was awarded the MVP trophy during the ceremonies. This is the biggest honor you can receive in New York basketball other than the Mr. Basketball award (Which he won his senior year). However in the championship game the hero in overtime had been his teammate Antonio Pena. After Telfair was handed the MVP trophy, he walked over to Pena, gave him a hug, and then presented him with the MVP trophy, which to this day Pena still has. The place erupted in applause.
B) As a Senior Telfair was absolutely mobbed with young autograph seekers(two of them my children) on the floor of the Civic Center after a semifinal win. I would estimate there were about 50 young kids all hoping for an autograph. It was after 9PM and these were all young kids needing to get home soon. MSG network approaches Telfair just as he had begun to sign autographs. They request he begin a interview which would be seen on the network that night. Now the scene was what interested me. You had a 17 year old being asked to go on TV and have himself shown to a huge audience, while he pondered turning away or delaying signing for 50 kids. Telfair took the gentleman from MSG aside and told him that he would love to do the interview, but ONLY after every child who wanted to get an autograph had received one. He then proceeded for a good twenty minutes to sign every single autograph. And I don’t mean just a quick signature. This kid looks the children in the eye, asks them how old they are, if they are doing well in school, do they listen to their parents, who is their favorite player, etc? I was stunned. NO ONE does this at age 17, NO ONE.
C) In his final game ever in High school Mount Vernon High school badly outplays Lincoln and Telfair loses his chance at repeating as Federation Champions. The next day he will fly to the McDonalds All american game. He already seems a lock to go to the NBA draft and is close to signing a million dollar sneaker contract. He already has won three straight city titles, was named NY state Mr. Basketball, set the Alltime New York state scoring record and is on the cover of Sports Illustrated. I would think that most kids in this situation would be disapointed they lost, but more than ready to move on to all these other great things.
Not Telfair. He was absolutely inconsolable after the game. Devastated, in tears he clearly could not stand the fact that his team had lost. All he cared about was winning. People knock kids who cry after losing. I remember Bird after losing to Magic in the 79 finals sobbing into a towel. I love kids who cry after a loss, because it tells you where their priorities lie. With Telfair, Bird and probably the Morrison kid everyone is laughing at. At least with these kids you know winning is number one on their list.
If Sebastian Telfair does not make it big in the NBA, It will not be due to a lack of heart, smarts, class, court vision or love for the game. I am quite sure if he had gone to Louisville for two years and was in this draft, there is a great chance he would have been picked by Toronto at number one, they badly want a point guard. At the absolute worst he would have been a top five pick.
I have to laugh when people like Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale are saying Marcus Williams or Randy Foye are better. I would bet anything, if Sebastian was leading either UCONN or Villanova this past year, they wouldn't have been teams that missed the final four. And I seriously doubt either Marcus Williams or Randy Foye would have won three straight New York city titles like Telfair did. He is a winner like no one else who has ever come out of New York City. He led them to three straight city titles when numerous alltime greats have failed to do so. Alcindor, Hawkins, Erving, Anderson, Mullin, Mashburn, etc, have all tried, and no one ever did it.
This is the first pure point guard in Boston since Sherman Douglass. But he is much more talented than Sherman ever was.
I have been watching New York City point guards for the past 25 years. Kenny Smith, Kenny Anderson, Derrick Phelps, Rod Strickland, King Rice, Adrian Autry, Pearl Washington and several others. Not one of these kids was close to Telfair as far a pure god given court vision and awareness. Not even close.
This is a case of a kid who was forced financially to come out early. He then goes to the WORST team he could have possibly gone to and far away from home no less. He is just 18 years old and still shows several early flashes for a young kid with no one to dish to. His role models/go to guys on that team are Zach Randolph and Darius Miles?
If he had gone to college for two years, which he couldn’t afford to do financially, it would be obvious how good he is. I don’t think anyone in Boston has any idea what is about to happen. Basketball is about to be fun again. Get ready for an array of thread the needle passes, penetration and winning plays. An absolute non stop motor from end to end. The losing ends now. He is special. Ask Lebron James what he thinks of this kid. Ask Shawn Livingston or Dwight Howard. They all know how good he is. It is just a matter of this year or next, it is about to happen. How the Celtics finally had something good happen is beyond my comprehension. But NBA ticket will now have to be purchased in my household. The Celtics are about to be back in a big (or 5' 11") way and I actually want to see it.
Coaching Varsity Basketball in New York State does not qualify me as a super NBA scout, but I do have a pretty good knowledge of basketball. I just wanted to share with you a few incidents regarding Sebastian Telfair that most people probably have never heard about. Every year the New York City champions travel to Upstate New York and play for the Federation title at the Glens Falls Civic Center. Three years in a row Sebastian Telfair led his team to New York City Public School titles. This is something that has never happened before and likely never will again. He also won a Federation title as a junior and then lost as a senior in his last high school game vs Mount Vernon, a team featuring five future division one players.
Three different occurances at the Federation Tourney sum up what type of kid Sebastian Telfair is and how different he is from 99% of the McDonald's All american types we see nowadays.
A) In his Junior year Telfair led his team to the Federation title and was awarded the MVP trophy during the ceremonies. This is the biggest honor you can receive in New York basketball other than the Mr. Basketball award (Which he won his senior year). However in the championship game the hero in overtime had been his teammate Antonio Pena. After Telfair was handed the MVP trophy, he walked over to Pena, gave him a hug, and then presented him with the MVP trophy, which to this day Pena still has. The place erupted in applause.
B) As a Senior Telfair was absolutely mobbed with young autograph seekers(two of them my children) on the floor of the Civic Center after a semifinal win. I would estimate there were about 50 young kids all hoping for an autograph. It was after 9PM and these were all young kids needing to get home soon. MSG network approaches Telfair just as he had begun to sign autographs. They request he begin a interview which would be seen on the network that night. Now the scene was what interested me. You had a 17 year old being asked to go on TV and have himself shown to a huge audience, while he pondered turning away or delaying signing for 50 kids. Telfair took the gentleman from MSG aside and told him that he would love to do the interview, but ONLY after every child who wanted to get an autograph had received one. He then proceeded for a good twenty minutes to sign every single autograph. And I don’t mean just a quick signature. This kid looks the children in the eye, asks them how old they are, if they are doing well in school, do they listen to their parents, who is their favorite player, etc? I was stunned. NO ONE does this at age 17, NO ONE.
C) In his final game ever in High school Mount Vernon High school badly outplays Lincoln and Telfair loses his chance at repeating as Federation Champions. The next day he will fly to the McDonalds All american game. He already seems a lock to go to the NBA draft and is close to signing a million dollar sneaker contract. He already has won three straight city titles, was named NY state Mr. Basketball, set the Alltime New York state scoring record and is on the cover of Sports Illustrated. I would think that most kids in this situation would be disapointed they lost, but more than ready to move on to all these other great things.
Not Telfair. He was absolutely inconsolable after the game. Devastated, in tears he clearly could not stand the fact that his team had lost. All he cared about was winning. People knock kids who cry after losing. I remember Bird after losing to Magic in the 79 finals sobbing into a towel. I love kids who cry after a loss, because it tells you where their priorities lie. With Telfair, Bird and probably the Morrison kid everyone is laughing at. At least with these kids you know winning is number one on their list.
If Sebastian Telfair does not make it big in the NBA, It will not be due to a lack of heart, smarts, class, court vision or love for the game. I am quite sure if he had gone to Louisville for two years and was in this draft, there is a great chance he would have been picked by Toronto at number one, they badly want a point guard. At the absolute worst he would have been a top five pick.
I have to laugh when people like Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale are saying Marcus Williams or Randy Foye are better. I would bet anything, if Sebastian was leading either UCONN or Villanova this past year, they wouldn't have been teams that missed the final four. And I seriously doubt either Marcus Williams or Randy Foye would have won three straight New York city titles like Telfair did. He is a winner like no one else who has ever come out of New York City. He led them to three straight city titles when numerous alltime greats have failed to do so. Alcindor, Hawkins, Erving, Anderson, Mullin, Mashburn, etc, have all tried, and no one ever did it.
This is the first pure point guard in Boston since Sherman Douglass. But he is much more talented than Sherman ever was.
I have been watching New York City point guards for the past 25 years. Kenny Smith, Kenny Anderson, Derrick Phelps, Rod Strickland, King Rice, Adrian Autry, Pearl Washington and several others. Not one of these kids was close to Telfair as far a pure god given court vision and awareness. Not even close.
This is a case of a kid who was forced financially to come out early. He then goes to the WORST team he could have possibly gone to and far away from home no less. He is just 18 years old and still shows several early flashes for a young kid with no one to dish to. His role models/go to guys on that team are Zach Randolph and Darius Miles?
If he had gone to college for two years, which he couldn’t afford to do financially, it would be obvious how good he is. I don’t think anyone in Boston has any idea what is about to happen. Basketball is about to be fun again. Get ready for an array of thread the needle passes, penetration and winning plays. An absolute non stop motor from end to end. The losing ends now. He is special. Ask Lebron James what he thinks of this kid. Ask Shawn Livingston or Dwight Howard. They all know how good he is. It is just a matter of this year or next, it is about to happen. How the Celtics finally had something good happen is beyond my comprehension. But NBA ticket will now have to be purchased in my household. The Celtics are about to be back in a big (or 5' 11") way and I actually want to see it.
Post-draft thoughts (2 of 3)
H. played division 1 college ball and has remained distantly involved in professional hoops (in ways we won't get into) since then. It's an indication of the kind of perverse basketball fan that he is that he watched most of the Portland Trailblazers games last year. The following is taken from an exchange we had post-draft:
The conventional knock on Telfair is that he regressed his second year and was a bad PG on a bad team, but this is crap.
The Blazers had three PGs competing for minutes last year: Telfair, Blake and Jack. Despite being 5 and 2 years younger then both of them, Telfair won the starting job convincingly coming out of training camp. He played very well for the first 6 weeks of the season before going down with a wrist injury that had him out until January. Blake took over the starting job when Telfair went down, during which the Blazers stunk, and the team started juggling Blake and Jack in hopes one of them would take over. Once Telfair came back it took him about 6 weeks to get his groove back, during which the team had a dysfunctional three-PG rotation going.
Here’s the thing, though: Telfair beat out Blake again, and they started playing Blake at SG to make room for Telfair at the point with Jack backing him up. Remember, the team was a basket case by this point. None of his team-mates were playing hard, none of them were doing the things away from the ball that a PG needs for the offense to work. The team was a complete mess. I watched almost every Blazers game after the All Star Break and Telfair was one of the only guys who played like he gave a damn. And I think this is important: the TV announcers loved Bassy. Every single game they made a point of talking about how hard he practiced, how much work he put in on his own time. The people around the team seemed to genuinely love the kid. On a garbage team where everyone had punched the time clock I think this sort of thing says a lot about him.
I really believe that a true PG, which Telfair is, has no chance on a team with young players who have no chemistry or quality NBA talent. This kid could thrive in an offensive system that actually has roles and a couple of veteran players. Do you realize that his running mate in the backcourt last year the majority of the time was Steve Frickin Blake and Juan Dixon? No PG is going to look very good or put up numbers when Blake or Dixon is your SG. The defense could all leave the court to get a beer and Dixon still wouldn’t be able to get open. I think Telfair will do well over the next couple of years. Just giving him Paul Pierce to pass to off dribble penetration will make him worlds better.
You have to give kids this young time to mature on and off the court before dumping them off to the next team. I think Portland just made a mistake. But keep in mind that both Telfair and Khryapa were John Nash's picks and once he was fired Pritchard finally got rid of Telfair (who he reportedly never liked) and Khryapa (who was lower profile but likely a similar scenario). That stupid movie Telfair made probably didn't help, since Portland is such a marketing disaster right now. When McMillan came in last season, the Blazers wasted a bunch of time seeing if they could make Telfair into Delonte West: bring it up, pass it off to the wing or post, and go stand around and set up for the open jumper. Not his game at all, and suddenly Telfair looked like a pretty ordinary PG, with occasional flashes on the fast break. Telfair is more a pick-and-roll, penetrating PG.
Telfair improved his three-ball shooting from 24% as a rookie straight out of HS to a very respectable/solid 35% in his second year. He has excellent form and rotation while his shot selection/getting used to the speed of the game figures to continue to improve and has been given accolades for his work ethic on a team that it would have been easy to quit on. I wouldn't say he will be a perennial All-Star or anything but he might be the best PG the Celtics have had in 20 years (yeah, i know this isn't saying much).
The conventional knock on Telfair is that he regressed his second year and was a bad PG on a bad team, but this is crap.
The Blazers had three PGs competing for minutes last year: Telfair, Blake and Jack. Despite being 5 and 2 years younger then both of them, Telfair won the starting job convincingly coming out of training camp. He played very well for the first 6 weeks of the season before going down with a wrist injury that had him out until January. Blake took over the starting job when Telfair went down, during which the Blazers stunk, and the team started juggling Blake and Jack in hopes one of them would take over. Once Telfair came back it took him about 6 weeks to get his groove back, during which the team had a dysfunctional three-PG rotation going.
Here’s the thing, though: Telfair beat out Blake again, and they started playing Blake at SG to make room for Telfair at the point with Jack backing him up. Remember, the team was a basket case by this point. None of his team-mates were playing hard, none of them were doing the things away from the ball that a PG needs for the offense to work. The team was a complete mess. I watched almost every Blazers game after the All Star Break and Telfair was one of the only guys who played like he gave a damn. And I think this is important: the TV announcers loved Bassy. Every single game they made a point of talking about how hard he practiced, how much work he put in on his own time. The people around the team seemed to genuinely love the kid. On a garbage team where everyone had punched the time clock I think this sort of thing says a lot about him.
I really believe that a true PG, which Telfair is, has no chance on a team with young players who have no chemistry or quality NBA talent. This kid could thrive in an offensive system that actually has roles and a couple of veteran players. Do you realize that his running mate in the backcourt last year the majority of the time was Steve Frickin Blake and Juan Dixon? No PG is going to look very good or put up numbers when Blake or Dixon is your SG. The defense could all leave the court to get a beer and Dixon still wouldn’t be able to get open. I think Telfair will do well over the next couple of years. Just giving him Paul Pierce to pass to off dribble penetration will make him worlds better.
You have to give kids this young time to mature on and off the court before dumping them off to the next team. I think Portland just made a mistake. But keep in mind that both Telfair and Khryapa were John Nash's picks and once he was fired Pritchard finally got rid of Telfair (who he reportedly never liked) and Khryapa (who was lower profile but likely a similar scenario). That stupid movie Telfair made probably didn't help, since Portland is such a marketing disaster right now. When McMillan came in last season, the Blazers wasted a bunch of time seeing if they could make Telfair into Delonte West: bring it up, pass it off to the wing or post, and go stand around and set up for the open jumper. Not his game at all, and suddenly Telfair looked like a pretty ordinary PG, with occasional flashes on the fast break. Telfair is more a pick-and-roll, penetrating PG.
Telfair improved his three-ball shooting from 24% as a rookie straight out of HS to a very respectable/solid 35% in his second year. He has excellent form and rotation while his shot selection/getting used to the speed of the game figures to continue to improve and has been given accolades for his work ethic on a team that it would have been easy to quit on. I wouldn't say he will be a perennial All-Star or anything but he might be the best PG the Celtics have had in 20 years (yeah, i know this isn't saying much).
Post-draft thoughts (1 of 3)
It was a particularly busy week at work, with lots of time on the road sans internet connections. Consider this some belated thoughts from Wednesday night.
Telfair of course is the big story.
It’s difficult to evaluate Telfair in context, because there’s very little precedent for his career. To my memory he is one of only three point guards to have gone straight from high school to the pros. The other two were Shaun Livingston and BronBron. LeBron lasted less than one season playing the point in Cleveland. As he bulked up they moved him first to SG and now SF. The Clippers traded for Cassel so they wouldn’t need to rush Livingston into starting, and he played inconsistently but well in ~25 min/g this last season. This is in line with Bassy, who averaged ~20 min/g his rookie year and ~25 this last season.
The conventional wisdom is that PG is the hardest position to learn to play at the pro level. Most PGs spend 1-2 years in college and then take another couple of years to adjust to the NBA game. Consequently almost every NBA PG who amounted to anything didn’t come into the league until they were a couple years older than Telfair is now (Kidd:22, Stockton:23, Tim Hardaway:23, etc.). I’ve spent some time digging and I can find very few examples of people who were above-average NBA point guards in their early 20s. Magic came into the league at 21, but played a lot of SG his rookie year next to Norm Nixon (21st NBA all-time assists leader). Mike Bibby came in at 20 (Telfair’s age now) and averaged 30 mpg for an 8-42 Grizzlies team. The only other comp I could find was Isiah, who joined the Pistons at 21 and averaged 33 mpg and 8 apg his rookie season. Any discussion of Telfair should start with acknowledging that the kid just has an incredible amount of talent to have been holding his own as an NBA PG at ages 19 and 20. You have to be doing something well if the only players who played better than you in the pros at about the same age were Magic, Bibby and Isiah.
Talent in this case means that Telfair has all the PG traits that are very difficult to teach: court vision, passing ability, an instinctive understanding of how to create high-percentage shots for teammates in the half court and in transition. These are all mental/psychological things that other PGs with tons of physical ability (I’m looking at you, Marcus Banks) never developed.
I mention Banks only because there’s some talk in the Boston sports media about whether Telfair is going to be another PG experiment like Banks, bound for the same disappointment. If people want to compare the two let’s start by observing that at the same stage of their careers Marcus Banks was finishing up his second season at Dixie State Junior College without any scholarship offers from the major conferences. I’m not knocking Banks, but on one hand you have someone who at age 20 was finishing his second season in the pros and another who ended up attending a school in the Mountain West Conference after avg. 16/4 in JC.
There have really been two big knocks on Telfair’s game:
The first is his outside shooting ability, which is absolutely essential for a slashing PG to keep NBA defenders honest. The thing is that after athletic conditioning this is one of the easier things for a dedicated player to improve once they make the pros. Tony Parker is only one example of many PGs would came into the league with a mediocre/bad FG%. Jason Kidd and Tiny Archibald are two others. With Telfair, there’s some reason to believe that his shooting has already gotten better. His eFG% improved from .413 to .444 from his rookie season to last, partly because his 3PFG% improved from .246 to .352. In general, Telfair doesn’t need to lead the league in efficiency. He only needs to get good enough that defenders can’t sag off of him on the perimeter. That, combined with his first step and driving ability and you have someone who will be unguardable in single coverage by all but the most elite perimeter defenders. Even if he never makes this leap, then he may very well have a career path like Maurice Cheeks, Sherman Douglas, Pooh Richardson and other starting PGs who had long, successful if unexceptional careers.
The second real knock on Telfair is his size. At 5’11”— 6’ if you’re feeling really generous— Telfair is going to be a strictly average NBA defender at best. And even being average is going to take a lot of work and competitiveness on his part. Taller PGs like Chauncey Billups will post him up every chance they get. There’s not a lot he or the team can do about this other than to set up a defensive scheme that doesn’t call for him to be a the guy to stop the other team’s first option.
Let’s define a ‘true’ PG as someone who can break down perimeter defense with dribble penetration, is willing and able to make accurate passes to team-mates, and has enough BBIQ to move the ball to generate a high-percentage shot somewhere on the court. Let’s say if you can do those three key things, you’re a true PG. Everyone else— no matter how well they play defense, set picks, hit three pointers, etc.— are shooting guards playing out of position. I’m also ruling out players like Stephon Marbury, who could do all the above but choose not to in favor of scoring 30ppg.
Here’s the thing: there has always been a limited supply of talented true PGs in the NBA. Since expansion I’d guestimate that there have only been about half as many true PGs to go around as there are teams that want/need them. This has caused lots of teams like the Celtics to take small shooting guards with some other skill set (e.g. Mike James, Milt Palacio, Dana Barros, David Wesley, Delonte West) and play them at the point. Rick Pitino and Jim O’Brien famously declared the point an irrelevant position and manned it with the best defending, three-point shooting guards they could find for cheap.
There’s no question the Celtics now have a 20-year old, gifted, true PG prospect. At worst, I suspect that Telfair will be a 10-year decent NBA starter (think TJ Ford pre-injury or Kirk Hinrich) starting at the latest in 2-3 years. If he were going to bust out for lack of skill it would have happened already. At best Telfair has the talent to become a several-time All Star. In the most barren NBA draft in years, is that good return on the 7th pick? Sure. The players I’ve mentioned above that are rough comps for Telfair’s career so far all went top 3. This doesn’t mean that Bassy is going to have a career close to theirs. Just that if you want a chance at that kind of lottery ticket, you don’t normally get the chance as late as the 7th pick in the draft.
Telfair of course is the big story.
It’s difficult to evaluate Telfair in context, because there’s very little precedent for his career. To my memory he is one of only three point guards to have gone straight from high school to the pros. The other two were Shaun Livingston and BronBron. LeBron lasted less than one season playing the point in Cleveland. As he bulked up they moved him first to SG and now SF. The Clippers traded for Cassel so they wouldn’t need to rush Livingston into starting, and he played inconsistently but well in ~25 min/g this last season. This is in line with Bassy, who averaged ~20 min/g his rookie year and ~25 this last season.
The conventional wisdom is that PG is the hardest position to learn to play at the pro level. Most PGs spend 1-2 years in college and then take another couple of years to adjust to the NBA game. Consequently almost every NBA PG who amounted to anything didn’t come into the league until they were a couple years older than Telfair is now (Kidd:22, Stockton:23, Tim Hardaway:23, etc.). I’ve spent some time digging and I can find very few examples of people who were above-average NBA point guards in their early 20s. Magic came into the league at 21, but played a lot of SG his rookie year next to Norm Nixon (21st NBA all-time assists leader). Mike Bibby came in at 20 (Telfair’s age now) and averaged 30 mpg for an 8-42 Grizzlies team. The only other comp I could find was Isiah, who joined the Pistons at 21 and averaged 33 mpg and 8 apg his rookie season. Any discussion of Telfair should start with acknowledging that the kid just has an incredible amount of talent to have been holding his own as an NBA PG at ages 19 and 20. You have to be doing something well if the only players who played better than you in the pros at about the same age were Magic, Bibby and Isiah.
Talent in this case means that Telfair has all the PG traits that are very difficult to teach: court vision, passing ability, an instinctive understanding of how to create high-percentage shots for teammates in the half court and in transition. These are all mental/psychological things that other PGs with tons of physical ability (I’m looking at you, Marcus Banks) never developed.
I mention Banks only because there’s some talk in the Boston sports media about whether Telfair is going to be another PG experiment like Banks, bound for the same disappointment. If people want to compare the two let’s start by observing that at the same stage of their careers Marcus Banks was finishing up his second season at Dixie State Junior College without any scholarship offers from the major conferences. I’m not knocking Banks, but on one hand you have someone who at age 20 was finishing his second season in the pros and another who ended up attending a school in the Mountain West Conference after avg. 16/4 in JC.
There have really been two big knocks on Telfair’s game:
The first is his outside shooting ability, which is absolutely essential for a slashing PG to keep NBA defenders honest. The thing is that after athletic conditioning this is one of the easier things for a dedicated player to improve once they make the pros. Tony Parker is only one example of many PGs would came into the league with a mediocre/bad FG%. Jason Kidd and Tiny Archibald are two others. With Telfair, there’s some reason to believe that his shooting has already gotten better. His eFG% improved from .413 to .444 from his rookie season to last, partly because his 3PFG% improved from .246 to .352. In general, Telfair doesn’t need to lead the league in efficiency. He only needs to get good enough that defenders can’t sag off of him on the perimeter. That, combined with his first step and driving ability and you have someone who will be unguardable in single coverage by all but the most elite perimeter defenders. Even if he never makes this leap, then he may very well have a career path like Maurice Cheeks, Sherman Douglas, Pooh Richardson and other starting PGs who had long, successful if unexceptional careers.
The second real knock on Telfair is his size. At 5’11”— 6’ if you’re feeling really generous— Telfair is going to be a strictly average NBA defender at best. And even being average is going to take a lot of work and competitiveness on his part. Taller PGs like Chauncey Billups will post him up every chance they get. There’s not a lot he or the team can do about this other than to set up a defensive scheme that doesn’t call for him to be a the guy to stop the other team’s first option.
Let’s define a ‘true’ PG as someone who can break down perimeter defense with dribble penetration, is willing and able to make accurate passes to team-mates, and has enough BBIQ to move the ball to generate a high-percentage shot somewhere on the court. Let’s say if you can do those three key things, you’re a true PG. Everyone else— no matter how well they play defense, set picks, hit three pointers, etc.— are shooting guards playing out of position. I’m also ruling out players like Stephon Marbury, who could do all the above but choose not to in favor of scoring 30ppg.
Here’s the thing: there has always been a limited supply of talented true PGs in the NBA. Since expansion I’d guestimate that there have only been about half as many true PGs to go around as there are teams that want/need them. This has caused lots of teams like the Celtics to take small shooting guards with some other skill set (e.g. Mike James, Milt Palacio, Dana Barros, David Wesley, Delonte West) and play them at the point. Rick Pitino and Jim O’Brien famously declared the point an irrelevant position and manned it with the best defending, three-point shooting guards they could find for cheap.
There’s no question the Celtics now have a 20-year old, gifted, true PG prospect. At worst, I suspect that Telfair will be a 10-year decent NBA starter (think TJ Ford pre-injury or Kirk Hinrich) starting at the latest in 2-3 years. If he were going to bust out for lack of skill it would have happened already. At best Telfair has the talent to become a several-time All Star. In the most barren NBA draft in years, is that good return on the 7th pick? Sure. The players I’ve mentioned above that are rough comps for Telfair’s career so far all went top 3. This doesn’t mean that Bassy is going to have a career close to theirs. Just that if you want a chance at that kind of lottery ticket, you don’t normally get the chance as late as the 7th pick in the draft.
Friday, June 30, 2006
Italia.
Not that Ukraine is any great shakes, but Italy is going to the semi-finals and so far the United States are the only side to record a goal against them.
"This is not a team."
Simon Kuper has the best piece I've seen on what's been happening with Brazil, and in particular with Ronaldinho:
This is not the football [Brazil coach Carlos Alberto] Parreira wants to see. But he doesn't aspire to "joga bonito" either. Instead he wants Brazil to pass the ball around for long stretches. "When we put the ball on the ground, we have a technical advantage that is superior to any opponent," he says. But to pass, you need players willing to run into space to receive the ball. Ronaldinho ran in 2002, when he was the team's junior member. This year only Robinho - currently injured - has budged much.
Ronaldinho has grown so frustrated that against Ghana on Tuesday he actually stopped smiling. Several times after passing into nothingness, he turned to the intended recipient (usually Adriano) and demonstrated with his hands how the player should have run: hook sideways, then sprint deep. Once, after crossing a ball that Adriano could have headed in had he but moved, Ronaldinho made an even simpler gesture: he nodded an imitation header. Presumably Adriano understood. Ronaldinho excels at Barcelona where Samuel Eto'o and Ludovic Giuly chase his passes, but with Brazil he is helpless.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
C's draft
Simmons doesn't like it. And neither does SI's Kelly Dwyer. I'll wait to pass judgement until I see whether AI, KG or Jermaine O'Neal end up in a C's uniform.
By the way, from what I've read about Leon Powe (can't retrace the links at the moment, sorry) he's a very good player who got the Golden Bears into the NCAA tourney, but has had 2 knee reconstruction surgerys which scared teams off. He's supposed to be a solid inside player with good defense and rebounding, excellent short-offense and a developing mid-range shot. Averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds this past year.
By the way, from what I've read about Leon Powe (can't retrace the links at the moment, sorry) he's a very good player who got the Golden Bears into the NCAA tourney, but has had 2 knee reconstruction surgerys which scared teams off. He's supposed to be a solid inside player with good defense and rebounding, excellent short-offense and a developing mid-range shot. Averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds this past year.
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
And now, Leon Powe
Those with Golden Bears loyalties will be glad to hear that Ainge just moved a future second round pick for sophomore forward Leon Powe.
Rajon Rondo
Henry Abbott spent a bunch of time pulling together summaries of different draft prospects in the hours leading up to the draft. His compilation on Rondo is here.
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Wynalda.
The ESPN and ABC commentators for the World Cup are crappy enough. And then there's Eric Wynalda, gunning from the studio for Bruce Arena and just about everyone else on a US team that did far better than the team Wynalda led -- and I do use that term loosely -- to a last-place finish in France in 1998. If Wynalda had shown up for that final game against Iran, he might have a little more standing to bitch and moan now.
Sunday, June 25, 2006
Coulda, woulda, shoulda
Peter May's column from today's Globe is an exhaustive look at what's gone wrong with the men in Green since their last championship 20 years ago.
Suffice it to say, there's more than he writes, but this is a good place to start. Ugh.
Suffice it to say, there's more than he writes, but this is a good place to start. Ugh.
Friday, June 23, 2006
Not to toot my own horn...
...but what the hell. It's never stopped me before, so why start now?
The final paragraph from John Powers' gruesome post-mortem on the U.S. soccer team's meltdown at the World Cup pretty much sums up what I said at the beginning of the tournament.
For the record, I thought the U.S. team had a real chance to advance. Again, from June 3rd:
Count me one very wrong observer.
The final paragraph from John Powers' gruesome post-mortem on the U.S. soccer team's meltdown at the World Cup pretty much sums up what I said at the beginning of the tournament.
The last team went to the quarterfinals, the best US showing in 72 years. Maybe this one could have knocked off Brazil, maybe not. One thing, though, is certain. When you score one goal with your own feet in 270 minutes, you're on the early plane back to Newark.Here's what I said on June 3rd in response to T.S.'s concerns over Claudio Reyna's health:
I wouldn't worry so much about Reyna. He's an important player, but the key for the Yanks will be how their forwards and attacking midfielders play. Reyna's a playmaker, but if Donovan et. al. can't put the biscuit in the basket, it will be a short tourney for us.Could Donovan have played a worse final game? How many corners and free kicks were off target? Overall, could the U.S. attack have had a worse cup? And how furious is Taylor Twellman (2005 MLS MVP and leading scorer) that he didn't get a chance on this team, while teammate Clint Dempsey was one of the few (if inconsistent) bright spots on the team?
For the record, I thought the U.S. team had a real chance to advance. Again, from June 3rd:
I think they advance out of the first round and if they really get on a roll, possibly make the semis.If they won their group, I believe their 2nd round opponent was going to be Australia, and then likely France or Switzerland after that -- all beatable teams.
Count me one very wrong observer.
Monday, June 19, 2006
Or "futbol," if you prefer.
Rather than try to figure out who is starting for the Red Sox tonight, I have been watching the World Cup like it won't be on again for another four years, and even blogging a bit over at the personal mothership. (N.B. -- Simpsons footage included.)
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
TS: Your faith in Reyna...
...was well placed. He was one of the few who had a decent game yesterday. But as I pointed out in my earlier post, the key for the U.S. team is how much offense their "stars" can generate. Donovan et. al. didn't do much yesterday. They've got to play better if the U.S. has a chance to advance.
Friday, June 09, 2006
World Cup kickoff
20 minutes into the Germany/Costa Rica game, the score is already 2-1 Germany. Or, if you prefer American football scoring, that would be 14-7 before the end of the first quarter.
Monday, June 05, 2006
How to say "w00t!" in Dutch.
I can't stop watching this clip from the Holland-Argentina quarterfinal in 1998. As the action picks up, the game is tied 1-1 in the 89th minute....
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Ronaldinho
If you've ever wondered why Ronaldinho is considered by many to be the best soccer player in the world, this little Q&A with SI's Grant Wahl is a pretty good place to start. It comes complete with a couple of nifty links to some of Ronaldinho's greatest hits. Or you could just do a YouTube search for Ronaldinho and start there.
Saturday, June 03, 2006
June 9 is coming.
The U.S. team is gettting ready for the World Cup in Hamburg, which reminds me that I need to get that new TV, pronto. Meanwhile, the important news is that "Claudio Reyna, the only player with a significant injury, said his strained right hamstring 'feels pretty good' and that he hopes to be available to play in Monday's closed scrimmage against Angola."
Friday, June 02, 2006
Been away so long it looks like up to me.
Jay Williams is ready to come back to the NBA three years after his motorcycle accident, and he's been working out with the Toronto Raptors. However, it appears that there's still something wrong with his head:
"The thing I like about Toronto is the winning atmosphere," said Williams.Or maybe he's just desperate.
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Dean Pees.
The Washington Post's Mark Maske says that the Pats won't miss Eric Mangini:
Mangini is regarded as a Belichick clone and a rising star in the coaching ranks. But he was a rookie defensive coordinator last season and provided only an ordinary performance; some people around the league said his game plans, especially early in the season, seemed designed mostly to protect the secondary that he'd overseen previously. He wasn't ready to be a head coach and got the job mostly because he's close to the Jets' new general manager, Mike Tannenbaum. Mangini probably would have developed, in time, into a superb defensive coordinator and ready-for-prime-time head-coaching candidate. But it's likely that Pees will do at least as good a job this coming season as Mangini did last season.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Measuring basketball greatness.
In this week's New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell writes about The Wages of Wins, a new book by economists David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook -- edited by a good friend of mine -- "who have created an algorithm that, they argue, comes closer than any previous statistical measure to capturing the true value of a basketball player." Read Gladwell's review, and then rush out to buy it today. (N.B. -- It would make a great wedding present for that special someone.) Then read the authors' blog.
First of many worthless predictions
The NBA lottery results are in, and almost everything went in order except at the very top. The final rankings are:
1- Toronto
2- Chicago (from New York)
3- Charlotte
4- Portland
5- Atlanta
6- Minnesota
7- Boston
8- Houston
9- Golden State
10- Seattle
11- Orlando
12- NO/LA
13- Philadelphia
14- Utah
So let me be one of the first to roll out a mostly-worthless shot at predicting how the draft will go. Since the top 6 are all about equal prospects, the top of the draft is likely to go consistently by team need. Of the top big men, I see Aldridge as having the biggest chance of slipping due to his knee and back issues.
Toronto - Colangelo will never have more patience and goodwill will ownership and fans than these first few months. Even with Bosh and V at the PF he takes the supposedly best all-around big man - Bargnani
Chicago - the Bulls need frontcourt depth desperately and pick high in a draft top-heavy with PFs - Thomas
Charlotte - Bobcats have solid players at the point and post, and take the wing with the most 'upside' in the draft - Gay
Portland - an incompetently run franchise that's sinking fast by off-court management disasters takes immediate offense and a much-needed marketing boost - Morrison
Atlanta - A team that's already stocked with guards takes the best remaining big man - Aldridge
Minnesota - Here's the first reach. The Twolves already have Ricky Davis and last year's #1 McCants at SG, but only Blount and KG in the front court. Passing on the last of the clear top prospects, McHale takes a post player projected for lower in the lottery - O'Bryant
Boston - Danny drafts the best player available and has shown repeatedly he doesn't care about their position. Say hello to Boston - Brandon Roy
1- Toronto
2- Chicago (from New York)
3- Charlotte
4- Portland
5- Atlanta
6- Minnesota
7- Boston
8- Houston
9- Golden State
10- Seattle
11- Orlando
12- NO/LA
13- Philadelphia
14- Utah
So let me be one of the first to roll out a mostly-worthless shot at predicting how the draft will go. Since the top 6 are all about equal prospects, the top of the draft is likely to go consistently by team need. Of the top big men, I see Aldridge as having the biggest chance of slipping due to his knee and back issues.
Toronto - Colangelo will never have more patience and goodwill will ownership and fans than these first few months. Even with Bosh and V at the PF he takes the supposedly best all-around big man - Bargnani
Chicago - the Bulls need frontcourt depth desperately and pick high in a draft top-heavy with PFs - Thomas
Charlotte - Bobcats have solid players at the point and post, and take the wing with the most 'upside' in the draft - Gay
Portland - an incompetently run franchise that's sinking fast by off-court management disasters takes immediate offense and a much-needed marketing boost - Morrison
Atlanta - A team that's already stocked with guards takes the best remaining big man - Aldridge
Minnesota - Here's the first reach. The Twolves already have Ricky Davis and last year's #1 McCants at SG, but only Blount and KG in the front court. Passing on the last of the clear top prospects, McHale takes a post player projected for lower in the lottery - O'Bryant
Boston - Danny drafts the best player available and has shown repeatedly he doesn't care about their position. Say hello to Boston - Brandon Roy
Friday, May 19, 2006
Meet your '06 Sox, same as your '05 Sox.
Gordon Edes notes:
For all the talk of how much offense the Sox sacrificed to put a greater emphasis on pitching and defense, the offense has been similar to last season's team. The Sox are hitting .274, the same average they had through May 18 last season. They're averaging 5.4 runs, slightly below last season's average (5.6), but have hit home runs at roughly the same pace (41 in 38 games this season, 45 in 40 games last season).
Champions of the world.
Struggling to keep track of all the non-U.S. players left in the NBA playoffs? Not to fear -- Foreign Policy has a guide.
(This post is mostly an excuse for SweetDue's first link to Foreign Policy.)
(This post is mostly an excuse for SweetDue's first link to Foreign Policy.)
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
The smaller, faster NBA.
Bill Simmons has a provocative column -- sans Isaiah-bashing, alas -- up today about changes in the NBA. I recommend the whole thing, but will excerpt some key portions to give a flavor and perhaps spur some further discussion:
Read the whole thing.After two depressing playoff seasons (2003 and 2004) sent casual fans scurrying away, the league made a conscious decision to change the overall mentality of the game itself. . . . Here's how they did it:
1. They sped up the game by giving teams only eight seconds to get the ball over midcourt and resetting the shot clock to 14 seconds in certain situations (after a foul, a kicked ball, an illegal defense, and so on).
2. They started whistling players for the shoving/grabbing/clutching/mugging crap that had been plaguing the league since the Riley/Daly days (I still think Riley should serve some prison time though).
3. They cracked down on flagrant fouls -- almost too much, actually -- allowing players to attack the rim without worrying about being splattered against the basket support.
4. They relaxed the illegal defense rules, allowing smaller teams to use soft zones and double-team scoring threats more easily (also allowing teams to play more scorers at the same time, since they couldn't be as much of a liability defensively).
5. Referees were ordered to allow moving picks as long as the player setting the pick didn't stick a knee out to trip the defender.
The last one was an unannounced, under-the-table rule change that Team Stern will deny in public to the death, much like Marcellus and Butch always will deny what happened in Maynard's basement with Zed and the Gimp. But it happened. I have more than 200 games on DVD, including just about every relevant game from 1984 to 2004, and players were never allowed to set moving picks before last season. They had to approach the dribbler, come to a full stop, and remain still as the dribbler made his move. Watch an old Jazz game some time -- remember how Stockton and Malone were considered the masters of the pick-and-roll? Well, the Mailman held those picks every time. He never moved. If he did, they whistled him.With a guy like Boris Diaw setting moving screens for him, Nash suddenly became a lethal player -- and two-time MVP.
Now? You don't have to stop -- you can run over, pretend you're setting a high screen and basically careen into the defender. You can pretend to stop and continue moving your feet to sideswipe the defender as he's stepping around you (a Tyson Chandler specialty). You can even set a screen, make a 180-degree turn, chase the defender, then clip him with a moving pick a second time (a Yao Ming classic). All of these moves are legal in a wink-wink way. Boris Diaw raised it to another level -- instead of setting the screen on Nash's defender, sometimes he runs next to Nash, then quickly cuts toward the basket and "accidentally" picks off Nash's defender at full speed, almost like a wide receiver cutting across the field and picking off someone else's cornerback.I know this all sounds mildly confusing, but the high screen has become the single most important play in basketball. Four teams execute it correctly (by bending the fake rules that aren't actually in place): Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio and Detroit. Gee, what do those four teams have in common? And while we're here, if you ever wondered how Steve Nash played for eight years and never even made second-team All-NBA, then became a two-time MVP in the blink of an eye, it wasn't just because of his hair and his skin color, or because he found a coach that understood how to build a team around him. Nash took advantage of the aforementioned rules that made penetrating guards just as valuable as reliable low-post scorers (as we're seeing in this year's playoffs with Nash, Wade, Harris & Terry, Parker, Hinrich, Billups, even an old-timer like Sam Cassell).
Thanks to those rules, SmallBall has taken over the Western Conference playoffs this spring. Avery Johnson realized after one game that Dallas could only beat the Spurs by playing two point guards (Harris and Jason Terry) and exploiting San Antonio's shoddy perimeter defense; eventually, Gregg Popovich had no choice but to go small himself (even Big Shot Brob is riding the pine). The Suns-Clips series turned into a splendid SmallBall contest in Games 4 and 5, with the notable exception of the Chris Kaman parts (it's simply the wrong series for him, something Mike Dunleavy will probably realize around Game 12). Coincidentally -- or maybe, not coincidentally -- these have been two of the most entertaining and electric playoff series of the decade.
Which raises the million-dollar questions ...
Is this where we're headed? Are teams better off building for SmallBall over a conventional style? If you can only play five players, and you don't have an above-average center on your roster -- which most teams lack, by the way -- why not just play your best five guys regardless of position?
For instance, last summer's most important signing turned out to be Raja Bell, a much ridiculed move at the time. Remember? Twenty-five million for Raja Bell? What was Phoenix thinking? Actually, they were thinking that he's a great defender who makes 40 percent of his threes. Perfect for them. So they started pursuing him on midnight, July 1, then overpaid to make sure they got him. Ten months later, he looked like an absolute bargain even before he saved their season Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Zydrunas Ilgauskas contract (four years, $55 million) would have been fine in 1998, but it's a roster killer in 2006. Much like in real life, you can't survive with slow big guys anymore.
Just look at this year's draft. As recently as three years ago, LaMarcus Aldridge would have been the first pick, because, after all, you always take a good big man first, right? Not this year. LSU's Ty Thomas (a Marion-like forward) will be the first pick, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Aldridge and Adam Morrison (another player who would have been more effective five years ago) will drop out of the top three, whereas Brandon Roy (Washington's outstanding shooting guard) and UConn's Marcus Williams (yes, the Laptop Guy, as well as the only elite point guard in the draft) will end up going higher than people think (and doing better than people think). In the old days, you needed a franchise player to realistically contend for a title. Now? You need two penetrators (including an alpha dog), three or four shooters and two guys who can rebound and protect the rim. That's it. Just ask Phoenix.
The new breed of NBA player: quick point guards like Chris Paul will become even more valuable in the new-and-improved NBA.
It's a different world. Suddenly, Chris Paul and Devin Harris have more value than Chris Bosh and Andrew Bogut. Suddenly, a max contract for Ben Wallace doesn't make quite as much sense. Suddenly, Kirk Hinrich's ceiling has been raised from "multiple All-Star" to "potential three-time MVP." Suddenly, expensive, shoot-first point guards like Baron Davis and Stephon Marbury are untradeable unless you want someone else's junk back. Suddenly, you would be committed to an institution if you drafted Rafael Araujo over Andre Iguodala, and you would throw a three-day long party if Jameer Nelson fell to you at No. 20. Suddenly, it doesn't seem smart to trade Ben Gordon, Tyson Chandler and two lottery picks to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett with about 98,000 miles on his odometer. Suddenly, a team like the 2006 Dallas Mavericks can win an NBA title.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
A Lakers-Clippers playoff series?
Bill Simmons has a great column today about the NBA playoffs that focuses largely on the two LA teams. He touches on a lot of good stuff, which made easier by how exciting the first round of the playoffs has been. He also specifically gets into the Kobe transformation that R.M. were talking about a few days ago.
Here's what I wrote then
Here's what Simmons writes now
To me, here is the crux of the issue: Kobe has always had this in him. During the early years (and championships) of Phil Jacksons' first run in LA, Kobe was not nearly as good an individual player as he is now but consistently played team basketball at both ends of the court. Then whatever happened, happened, and he sold out his team in the '04 Finals.
On the listserve that pre-dated this blog we wrote extensively during that series about how Kobe might as well have been playing for the Pistons. At the time Shaq was still unstoppable in the paint; neither of the Wallaces could do anything with him alone. O'Neal ended up with a 64% FG% in that series, while still pulling down 20-rebound games like game 4.
At the same time Kobe seemed to have decided that if he couldn't win the series alone he didn't want the Lakers to win. The Pistons left Shaq in single coverage and triple-teamed Kobe whenever he had the ball. Every play screamed for Kobe to pass, which he absolutely wouldn't do. Play after play he dribbled straight into a crowd and then heaved up a ridiculous shot. It was so bad even the TV announcers couldn't keep from breaking the NBA's 'never criticize a celebrity player' rule. "The Lakers seem to have forgotten about the big fella" they'd say as Kobe threw up an out-of-control-airball-three while falling into the Pistons bench. Overall, Kobe shot 38% for the series but hit less than a third of his shots after the first two games. The result of all this? Pistons in 5. And it wasn't even close.
Everything leading up to and including 2004 Finals puts what Kobe's doing now in a whole different light. This isn't a guy who's coming to Jesus in the middle of his career. This is a guy who played excellent team basketball while he was become a star, then ditched it all in the Finals and for most of the next two years rather than share the limelight with anyone. While I'm wary of framing all this in terms of pop psychology, the one constant seems to be Kobe's ever-expanding ego. He'll pass the ball to Luke Walton if it gets him to the next playoff series and a bigger stage to be alpha male on. He won't let anyone pass to Shaq, though, even if it means getting blown out by a worse team in the Finals.
Here's what I wrote then
The biggest surprise of these playoffs has been the Lakers dominance of the Suns. Really, does it make Kobe seem worse to suddenly see him play incredibly unselfish team ball? Which is worse: for him to be incapable of this or to have been capable and deliberately not playing this way? Can Lakers fans love this series and not want to stone Kobe to death for single-handedly giving Detroit the '04 championship?
Here's what Simmons writes now
Subplot No. 2: Bizarro Kobe
Well, I broke new ground here on ESPN.com: Back in January, I wrote that he was playing too selfishly. Now? I think he's playing too unselfishly -- in fact, he passed up so many scoring chances to set up teammates in Game 4, it nearly cost the Lakers a winnable game.
More importantly ... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??
WHERE THE HELL DID THIS COME FROM?!!?!?!?!?!?
This was like watching Jimmy Fallon make it through an entire month of SNL episodes without laughing at one of his jokes. This was like watching Chris Berman make it through an entire NFL draft without tipping a team's pick as Paul Tagliabue approached the podium. This was like watching me write an entire month of columns without mentioning my friends or my father. It was simply incomprehensible. You could even call him Bizarro Kobe.
Do we praise him (for grasping the team concept, playing the most cerebral basketball of his career and finally understanding that his teammates will always play harder/better/more passionately when they have a greater stake in the proceedings) or skewer him (for not playing like this all along when it was clearly lurking inside of him). It's a tossup. If anything, his newfound unselfishness has hindered his offensive game; he played poorly for most of Game 4. But it's been mind-boggling to watch Bizarro Kobe pass up bad jumpers and openly try to get his teammates involved. It's simply implausible, like watching the Colts come out for a playoff game running the wishbone with Manning, and even stranger, Manning running amok and breaking tackles 20 yards down the field.
To me, here is the crux of the issue: Kobe has always had this in him. During the early years (and championships) of Phil Jacksons' first run in LA, Kobe was not nearly as good an individual player as he is now but consistently played team basketball at both ends of the court. Then whatever happened, happened, and he sold out his team in the '04 Finals.
On the listserve that pre-dated this blog we wrote extensively during that series about how Kobe might as well have been playing for the Pistons. At the time Shaq was still unstoppable in the paint; neither of the Wallaces could do anything with him alone. O'Neal ended up with a 64% FG% in that series, while still pulling down 20-rebound games like game 4.
At the same time Kobe seemed to have decided that if he couldn't win the series alone he didn't want the Lakers to win. The Pistons left Shaq in single coverage and triple-teamed Kobe whenever he had the ball. Every play screamed for Kobe to pass, which he absolutely wouldn't do. Play after play he dribbled straight into a crowd and then heaved up a ridiculous shot. It was so bad even the TV announcers couldn't keep from breaking the NBA's 'never criticize a celebrity player' rule. "The Lakers seem to have forgotten about the big fella" they'd say as Kobe threw up an out-of-control-airball-three while falling into the Pistons bench. Overall, Kobe shot 38% for the series but hit less than a third of his shots after the first two games. The result of all this? Pistons in 5. And it wasn't even close.
Everything leading up to and including 2004 Finals puts what Kobe's doing now in a whole different light. This isn't a guy who's coming to Jesus in the middle of his career. This is a guy who played excellent team basketball while he was become a star, then ditched it all in the Finals and for most of the next two years rather than share the limelight with anyone. While I'm wary of framing all this in terms of pop psychology, the one constant seems to be Kobe's ever-expanding ego. He'll pass the ball to Luke Walton if it gets him to the next playoff series and a bigger stage to be alpha male on. He won't let anyone pass to Shaq, though, even if it means getting blown out by a worse team in the Finals.
Cavs & Wizards
Some random thoughts on last night's Cavaliers-Wizards game:
(1) Has anyone ever scored a quieter 32 points in a playoff game than Antawn Jamison did last night?
(2) I want Caron Butler on my team.
(3) How come Drew Gooden isn't a whole lot better than he is? He just doesn't seem to have basketball instincts, or something.
(4) It was just wrong for Butler to foul out on a play where James just lowered his shoulder.
(5) With less than four seconds left in overtime, with a one point lead, do you think it might have occurred to Jamison that it was a good time to start playing defense, say by denying LeBron James the baseline?
(6) It's sad that James always looks so grim and serious and bad-ass when he should be celebrating. It looks like a pose that he's striking because he just isn't grown-up enough yet to feel comfortable in the spotlight. A few minutes later, when he was interviewed, he was smiling. I hope he learns soon how to smile more.
(7) Will either of these teams win more than a game against Detroit?
(1) Has anyone ever scored a quieter 32 points in a playoff game than Antawn Jamison did last night?
(2) I want Caron Butler on my team.
(3) How come Drew Gooden isn't a whole lot better than he is? He just doesn't seem to have basketball instincts, or something.
(4) It was just wrong for Butler to foul out on a play where James just lowered his shoulder.
(5) With less than four seconds left in overtime, with a one point lead, do you think it might have occurred to Jamison that it was a good time to start playing defense, say by denying LeBron James the baseline?
(6) It's sad that James always looks so grim and serious and bad-ass when he should be celebrating. It looks like a pose that he's striking because he just isn't grown-up enough yet to feel comfortable in the spotlight. A few minutes later, when he was interviewed, he was smiling. I hope he learns soon how to smile more.
(7) Will either of these teams win more than a game against Detroit?
Monday, May 01, 2006
These playoffs defying predictions
Back before the playoffs kicked off, I chipped in to a friendly first round pool with some other NBA obsessives. Historically, the NBA playoffs go overwhelmingly to formula: over a 7 game series the team with the better regular season wins. You can't win a pool by playing these odds, though, because a best case scenario leaves you tied with endless other people who also played it safe.
My big first-round upset prediction was the Bulls over Miami in 7 games. The Bulls went 10-2 at the end of the season to fight their way into the playoffs while the Heat looked lazy and distracted. Scott Skiles has done a fantastic job getting Chicago to consistently play hard and in the games I've seen has been an excellent in-game tactical coach. With all their brittle veterans Miami's risk of injury seems as great or greater than the rest of the playoff field. You knew the Bulls were going to be out-matched in the paint, but good coaching and intensity can cover some flaws.
Complete predictions
Wizards over Cavs in 7
Bulls over Heat in 7
Nets over Pacers in 6
Pistons over Bucks in 5
Suns over Lakers in 6
Spurs over Kings in 6
Clippers over Nuggets in 7
Mavericks over Grizz in 5
The Wizards, Bulls, Pistons, Mavs and Clippers are making me look pretty good so far. The Pacers, Lakers and Kings aren't taking their medicine the way they were supposed to.
The biggest surprise of these playoffs has been the Lakers dominance of the Suns. Really, does it make Kobe seem worse to suddenly see him play incredibly unselfish team ball? Which is worse: for him to be incapable of this or to have been capable and deliberately not playing this way? Can Lakers fans love this series and not want to stone Kobe to death for single-handedly giving Detroit the '04 championship?
LeBron has been brilliant and inconsistent, just what you'd expect of a 21-year-old superstar. The Pacers have shown an incredible ability over the last few years to just turn it on once the playoffs starts. They've been 150% better during the Nets series than they were the last few weeks of the season.
With all the top seeds that have been struggling this year, is David Stern's dream of increased parity starting to come true? I thought I was being bold by predicting that 3 of 8 first round series would go to 7 games. It might be surprising if 3 don't.
My big first-round upset prediction was the Bulls over Miami in 7 games. The Bulls went 10-2 at the end of the season to fight their way into the playoffs while the Heat looked lazy and distracted. Scott Skiles has done a fantastic job getting Chicago to consistently play hard and in the games I've seen has been an excellent in-game tactical coach. With all their brittle veterans Miami's risk of injury seems as great or greater than the rest of the playoff field. You knew the Bulls were going to be out-matched in the paint, but good coaching and intensity can cover some flaws.
Complete predictions
Wizards over Cavs in 7
Bulls over Heat in 7
Nets over Pacers in 6
Pistons over Bucks in 5
Suns over Lakers in 6
Spurs over Kings in 6
Clippers over Nuggets in 7
Mavericks over Grizz in 5
The Wizards, Bulls, Pistons, Mavs and Clippers are making me look pretty good so far. The Pacers, Lakers and Kings aren't taking their medicine the way they were supposed to.
The biggest surprise of these playoffs has been the Lakers dominance of the Suns. Really, does it make Kobe seem worse to suddenly see him play incredibly unselfish team ball? Which is worse: for him to be incapable of this or to have been capable and deliberately not playing this way? Can Lakers fans love this series and not want to stone Kobe to death for single-handedly giving Detroit the '04 championship?
LeBron has been brilliant and inconsistent, just what you'd expect of a 21-year-old superstar. The Pacers have shown an incredible ability over the last few years to just turn it on once the playoffs starts. They've been 150% better during the Nets series than they were the last few weeks of the season.
With all the top seeds that have been struggling this year, is David Stern's dream of increased parity starting to come true? I thought I was being bold by predicting that 3 of 8 first round series would go to 7 games. It might be surprising if 3 don't.
Best Steve Nash photoshop ever
Those who haven't been following the fantastic Lakers-Suns series can catch up on the reference here.
Sunday, April 30, 2006
RB, WR, TE, FB, PK, OT, . . . .
So it looks like the Patriots are maybe concerned with their offense?
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Great basketball
Those who have the chance this week are highly highly encouraged to watch two playoff series in particular.
Washington and Cleveland may easily go to seven games. In addition to seeing LeBron James become even greater before you very eyes you get treated to Washington's fantastic half-court offense. Neither team is built for playoff success. They can't defend nearly well enough. Cleveland has more talented post players and gets them involved. Their perimeter defense is sieve-like, however, and Arenas and company are all too happy to pour it on.
Denver and the Clippers may also go to seven games. I haven't seen nearly as much of either during the regular season. The Clippers high post offense is very similar to what the Celtics ran this past season, although it helps enormously to run your sets through an intelligent, veteran PF who can pass or score with his back to the basket or with mid-range jump shots. You have Carmelo Anthony looking to build on past NCAA tourney triumph. Sam Cassel in the post season again. The rehibillitation of Kenyon Martin's reputation took another step the other night when he largely shut down Lamar Odom on defense. Then he sat out a lot of the second half with more knee pain. Great matchups and subplots all over this series.
Most of the first round is a lobsided waste of time. Not these series. Watch while the watching's good.
Washington and Cleveland may easily go to seven games. In addition to seeing LeBron James become even greater before you very eyes you get treated to Washington's fantastic half-court offense. Neither team is built for playoff success. They can't defend nearly well enough. Cleveland has more talented post players and gets them involved. Their perimeter defense is sieve-like, however, and Arenas and company are all too happy to pour it on.
Denver and the Clippers may also go to seven games. I haven't seen nearly as much of either during the regular season. The Clippers high post offense is very similar to what the Celtics ran this past season, although it helps enormously to run your sets through an intelligent, veteran PF who can pass or score with his back to the basket or with mid-range jump shots. You have Carmelo Anthony looking to build on past NCAA tourney triumph. Sam Cassel in the post season again. The rehibillitation of Kenyon Martin's reputation took another step the other night when he largely shut down Lamar Odom on defense. Then he sat out a lot of the second half with more knee pain. Great matchups and subplots all over this series.
Most of the first round is a lobsided waste of time. Not these series. Watch while the watching's good.
Monday, April 24, 2006
Hot stove Celtics
Can't recall if we already posted this, but Gary Dzen put out the first trade winds of the off season a couple of weeks ago before the season even ended.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Who will be the next Gary Payton?
Bob Ryan has the sort of column in the Globe this morning that often gets us all talking. There's a lot in there, but I think this captures his gist:
At some point, you figure Danny is going to want to bring the sort of veteran who will teach the young pups how to win. Put away your calculators and spreadsheets, and pull out your stethoscope -- who is out there to play this role?
Of the 14 players on the roster, eight will start next season at age 24 or younger. They are Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen, and Orien Greene, 24; Dwayne Jones and Delonte West, 23; Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, 21; and Gerald Green, 20. Of course, they may not all be here, but most of them will be, and they will pretty much determine the course of the season.His conclusion:
It's this simple: Either these kids grow up or they don't. We cannot be having the same discussion a year from now.Here's the problem. Barring personnel changes, here's the paragraph you'll be able to write at the end of next season:
Of the 14 players on the roster, eight will start next season at age 25 or younger. They are Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen, and Orien Greene, 25; Dwayne Jones and Delonte West, 24; Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, 22; and Gerald Green, 21.
At some point, you figure Danny is going to want to bring the sort of veteran who will teach the young pups how to win. Put away your calculators and spreadsheets, and pull out your stethoscope -- who is out there to play this role?
Monday, April 17, 2006
Hot stove talk
All right, so we're officially in the actual baseball season. But the hot stove season is still in full swing. Tony Massarotti over at the Herald has dreams of a Beckett, Papelbon, and Dontrelle Willis starting three.
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Gomes watch, part 3
The following is from the transcript of Danny Ainge's most recent conference call with Celtic season ticket holders. No, I'm not one. Although I've thought about it. The emphasis in bold is mine.
This reads to me like Danny still sees Ryan's future at the 3, not the 4. As Danny points out, the things Ryan would need to get better at to play small forward(outside shooting, quickness on offense and defense) are things a player can improve. The things Ryan would need to get better at to play power forward (size), he can't.
Mike Gorman: This question comes in from Kim Malo: "How much of a surprise was it the way Ryan Gomes has developed? Now obviously you saw his potential and weren't taken completely by surprise but I think what has amazed most of us is his polished veteran maturity as a rookie. Would you agree?"
Danny Ainge: Yes. Ryan Gomes has had an excellent year. He knows how to play. You know, the four years in college make a difference. Ryan, he's had some ups and downs though. I mean I get a little worried when everybody gets too excited and puts too much emphasis on Ryan. Ryan has been inconsistent to some degree. He's still a little bit short at that starting four position and last night I thought that three or four of their offensive rebounds that got down the stretch were just because of Ryan's lack of height.
The thing I like about Ryan is his own offensive rebounding abilities and his shot is coming along; he's proven that he can make that midrange shot. And he just has a feel for where to go, you know, to get to the open slots. I think he does a really good job of feeding off of Paul and that is probably his greatest strength right now for us.
We're really excited about who Ryan is as a person, his work ethic, and his development. And so I think Ryan's going to be a fixture with us for awhile.
Mike Gorman: Along similar lines (Joseph Leary) asks, "Are you going to ask Ryan Gomes to bulk up this summer so he can better bang with the power forwards or ask him to trim down and continue to work on his midrange jump shots so he can run with the small forwards?"
Danny Ainge: Well, I always think speed is an advantage more than bulk. I mean its one thing to put on an extra five or ten pounds and maintain conditioning or stay at the same weight and lose your body fat and get faster. I prefer the speed.
I think our game is moving that direction more and more. If Ryan could bulk up...and grow three inches we'd like that. But I like the speed factor. You know, even if he's played before I still would like to have him have a speed advantage and a perimeter quickness advantage - [I'd rather him to be able to] beat [his man] to the ball and jump better than to have more power and bulk. So I would root for speed and conditioning over power.
This reads to me like Danny still sees Ryan's future at the 3, not the 4. As Danny points out, the things Ryan would need to get better at to play small forward(outside shooting, quickness on offense and defense) are things a player can improve. The things Ryan would need to get better at to play power forward (size), he can't.
Minor league basketball (cont.)
As might be expected, we are far from the only people thinking about the flawed incentives limiting the potential of an effective minor leagues for the NBA.
Yesterday's LA Times reports that the Lakers have received tentative approaval to launch their own NBADL team. The team, which would play some of their games in the Staples Center and others elsewhere in the LA area, would be wholely owned and operated by the Lakers.
Forum Blue and Gold is not surprisingly positive about the whole thing:
Yesterday's LA Times reports that the Lakers have received tentative approaval to launch their own NBADL team. The team, which would play some of their games in the Staples Center and others elsewhere in the LA area, would be wholely owned and operated by the Lakers.
Ownership would let the Lakers control who coaches and who plays on their minor league team, much as a Major League Baseball team controls personnel on its minor league affiliates. D-League teams select their coaches and players, with NBA franchises given the option to send first- or second-year players to a designated D-League team.
Forum Blue and Gold is not surprisingly positive about the whole thing:
The on-the-court reasons make a lot of sense — the Buss family will essentially own a minor league team, as has been done in baseball for decades. Not only would would this team have the players the Lakers have signed that they send down, they can essentially give guys just on the outside a D-League contract, like being on a scout team, and tell them “play well and you come back to camp with a better chance next year.” What’s more, with the current Lakers running the triangle, they could set up a minor league team to do the same, allowing players like Wafer to still grow in the offense while getting playing time.
The bigger question is will it make money? One of the struggles for the funky-little ABA when it had three-teams in the area (one in Los Angeles, one in Long Beach and one in the OC) was having the star power to draw fans. Why do you think they kept giving Dennis Rodman three-game contracts? Not his play, he was barely an ABA starter anymore. But he put butts in the seats. Same is true of the Summer Pro League in Long Beach — when they have someone like Andrew Bynum, who fans wanted to see, the Pyramid is packed. But other years it has been scouts, family, other players and some crickets in Long Beach.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Warning: past performance predicts future results
It's always interesting to see someone go and put numbers to a long-standing belief. Sometimes conventional wisdom is overturned. Sometimes it is confirmed.
It's an old saw that in the NBA only 6~7 teams in the league have a real shot at the championship every year. In no other professional sport does success in the regular season so strongly predict success in the playoffs. In no other support are the gaps between 'good' and 'great' teams so large.
The pleasantly analytical folks over at lowpost.net have created a chart of the aggregate historic playoff results for each seed since 1984. The upshot? If you aren't one of the top 3 teams in your conference you probably won't be playing in the conference finals. If you aren't the best team in your conference, you're a long-shot to even make the finals. Win early and win often or you probably won't win what matters.
It's an old saw that in the NBA only 6~7 teams in the league have a real shot at the championship every year. In no other professional sport does success in the regular season so strongly predict success in the playoffs. In no other support are the gaps between 'good' and 'great' teams so large.
The pleasantly analytical folks over at lowpost.net have created a chart of the aggregate historic playoff results for each seed since 1984. The upshot? If you aren't one of the top 3 teams in your conference you probably won't be playing in the conference finals. If you aren't the best team in your conference, you're a long-shot to even make the finals. Win early and win often or you probably won't win what matters.
Coach Cal to NC State?
Why would you leave your position as the top dog in Memphis to become the shortest side in the Research Triangle? ESPN.com says John Calipari is considering the jump.
Friday, April 07, 2006
A penny saved is a penny earned
The pride of Concord, New Hampshire, hopefully makes lots of frugal granite state basketball fans nod appreciatively over this interview
But Toronto forward Matt Bonner, a spendthrift in a world of frequent excess, has put off investing in a set of wheels. The car-less Bonner, 25, prefers to get around Toronto by streetcars, the subway or his own size 16 feet. Fans and teammates call the 6'10" Bonner "the Red Rocket" -- the nickname of the city's streetcar system. "I'd rather buy something that appreciates in value than something that loses half of it when you drive it off the lot," says Bonner, who majored in business at Florida.
Traveling among the people has helped turn Bonner -- who'll often stroll the one mile from his home to the Air Canada Centre -- into one of Toronto's most popular sports figures. He truly does have the common touch. A Concord, N.H., native who's the son of an elementary schoolteacher (his mother, Paula) and a mailman (his father, David), Bonner spent the 2003-04 season playing for Sicilia, an Italian club so near to bankruptcy that he didn't draw a paycheck for half the season. Even though he signed a two-year deal with Toronto for $4 million last summer, he still needed a talking-to from Raptors coach Sam Mitchell, who advised him (it was pre-NBA dress code) to bring his wardrobe up to league standards.
Bonner, who averages 7.1 points a game, lives in a furnished, one-bedroom apartment in downtown Toronto and has used a portion of his earnings to move his parents from a two-bedroom condo to a three-bedroom house. But he hasn't splurged since -- not even for a little extra protein. "Just the other day I was at Subway and wanted to double the chicken in my sub," he recalls. "But it was $2 more. I was like, What a rip-off!"
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Got scapegoat?
Basketball fans in Boston have found this a tiring, frustrating season. Most losing campaigns are. Fans in Indiana have even more reason to be frustrated, as the championship-contending campaigns they expected the last two years have each blown up in their faces.
At a certain point bitter, grumpy fans inevitably start looking around for someone to blame. Today the Indianapolis Star's Bob Kravitz takes shots at lots of folks, most pointedly Rick Carlisle.
In classic smarmy style-- does he even know what he wants to say? or is he intentionally padding his criticism with token praise?-- Kravitz works in great little passages like this one:
Kravitz may have no idea where he really stands on what Indiana ought to do but I do: Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA. What he was able to do with a series of overachieving, undertalented Pistons teams in Detroit was very impressive. The same is true in Indiana. If for whatever reason the Pacers decide to cut ties with Rick I would count it a major coup if the Celtics could land him.
Indiana's last two seasons have been devastated by bad luck and horrible injuries. If the fans are dumb enough to call for their coaches head over it, and management dumb enough to listen, they'll only be making things worse. That ought to be the title of Bob's column.
At a certain point bitter, grumpy fans inevitably start looking around for someone to blame. Today the Indianapolis Star's Bob Kravitz takes shots at lots of folks, most pointedly Rick Carlisle.
A couple of years ago, Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird talked about the Three-Year Burnout Rule. It was like Al Davis' 10-Year Burnout Rule, except it applied to professional basketball rather than football. After three years of listening to a single coach's voice -- whether he was Miami's Pat Riley or Toronto's Sam Mitchell -- players stopped paying attention.
That, one suspects, is where the going-nowhere Indiana Pacers now reside.
They've tuned out coach Rick Carlisle.
They've tuned out the entire coaching staff.
And more and more, it seems like they've tuned out the season.
In classic smarmy style-- does he even know what he wants to say? or is he intentionally padding his criticism with token praise?-- Kravitz works in great little passages like this one:
Clearly, Carlisle deserves some of the responsibility for the decline of this season. He has too often coddled his stars. He has made some odd late-game decisions. And as long as he has been here, players have felt constrained by his paint-by-numbers offensive style.
And yet, I'm not ready to say he's at the heart of the problem, or that he should be in any kind of trouble with management. If anything, Carlisle represents the least of Indiana's problems.
Fact is, Carlisle took a good team to 60 victories and an Eastern Conference finals. He took a wounded team and did one of the finest coaching jobs in recent memory, leading them to the playoffs last year after the brawl and all its attendant fallout. As much as everybody wants to blame somebody -- and why not start with the coach? -- the fact is, injuries have forced him to use 30 starting combinations.
Kravitz may have no idea where he really stands on what Indiana ought to do but I do: Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA. What he was able to do with a series of overachieving, undertalented Pistons teams in Detroit was very impressive. The same is true in Indiana. If for whatever reason the Pacers decide to cut ties with Rick I would count it a major coup if the Celtics could land him.
Indiana's last two seasons have been devastated by bad luck and horrible injuries. If the fans are dumb enough to call for their coaches head over it, and management dumb enough to listen, they'll only be making things worse. That ought to be the title of Bob's column.
Green Around The Edges
Gary Dzen has a nice "Boston.com only" item on Gerald Green. In short, seems like the rookie is starting to put some of the pieces together.
Tebucky part deux
Seems like the Pats have re-signed Tebucky Jones and one of the Gramatica brothers. Hopefully Jones has figured out how to take a good angle to the ball in his years with the Saints. As for Gramatica, I'm betting he's going to have a little competition in training camp this year.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
100 reasons to love Rasheed Wallace
The picture of a young Rasheed with Wilt Chamberlain is a classic. The rest of this post from Detroit Bad Boys is also a lot of fun. I especially liked this story of Rasheed's first practice at UNC going up against former lottery bust Eric Montross
Another nice quote:
First team scrimmage Ra's freshman year. Montross and Salvadori had been pushing Ra up and down the court, double teaming him down low, and talkin' shit the whole time. Evidently Ra went up for a turn around "J" in the lane only to have Montross and Salvadori club him and block his shot… each telling him to never bring that shit inside again. Next time down the court Ra caught a ball coming off of the rim at which time he did one of his backboard shaking monster dunks (a 9.5 on Pat Sullivan's grading scale) on Montross and Salvadori. Upon landing on his feet Ra pushed Montross into Salvadori and yelled, "You better recognize.. Motherf***er! Your job is mine!"
Another nice quote:
"We had some phantom technical fouls called when we had Rasheed. I know that. He'd just scream, he was so happy with a dunk and the next thing you know it's a technical foul. If I ever dunked, I would have screamed. If I'd go up and sky and dunk one, I'd scream too." –college basketball's all-time winningest coach Dean E. Smith
National champions
Florida deserves all kinds of props for their national championship. They played extermely well all tournament. Too bad last night's game was probably a marketing dud since it was so lob-sided as to be a boring watch for those who aren't hard core college hoops fans or NBA draftnicks. UCLA looks completely outmatched at every position except PG, which was a draw.
I don't have anything to add about Joakim Noah that hasn't been beaten to death in the press. Back at the start of the tourney when I wrote this post about him the Celtics were looking like they'd have about the 9th pick in the draft and Noah was just getting talked about as a possible lottery selection. Now it looks like the Celtics could end as high as 6th and have no shot at the guy.
Here's the question about Noah's draft prospects, though: if he plays as hard in the NBA as he did in the tournament his future is no worse than a great role player and decent starter. He's smaller and weaker than most NBA post players, though. If his motor idles back, how fast does his game disappear? Can he maintain the energy when he goes from two games on the weekend followed by five days off to an 82 game season with stretches of four games in five nights?
I don't have anything to add about Joakim Noah that hasn't been beaten to death in the press. Back at the start of the tourney when I wrote this post about him the Celtics were looking like they'd have about the 9th pick in the draft and Noah was just getting talked about as a possible lottery selection. Now it looks like the Celtics could end as high as 6th and have no shot at the guy.
Here's the question about Noah's draft prospects, though: if he plays as hard in the NBA as he did in the tournament his future is no worse than a great role player and decent starter. He's smaller and weaker than most NBA post players, though. If his motor idles back, how fast does his game disappear? Can he maintain the energy when he goes from two games on the weekend followed by five days off to an 82 game season with stretches of four games in five nights?
Monday, April 03, 2006
Returning, but not prodigal.
In case you missed it: "South Korea welcomed the return on Monday of its newfound sports hero Hines Ward, the Korean-American football star who left as a toddler."
Saturday, April 01, 2006
Details, details
Bob Ryan, in today's ode to large college basketball players, manages to get the final four matchups wrong. And not in passing. He organizes a large section of his piece around a face-off that isn't happening.
Do papers employ fact-checkers or editors any more? Does Bob bother to read and check his own work once he's done? There has been a solid week of non-stop hype around these two games and Ryan, as the Globe's primarily hoops reporter, has had nothing to do for 7 days but think about these games. Expecting him and the Globe to keep track of which team is playing which in the Final Four would seem to me a pretty easy bar to get over.
Perhaps its the rest of us that are fools for working for a living.
Now, if you're a fan of the genre, boy, do we have a game for you. Make sure you tune in at 6:07 tonight, when contemporary college basketball's two best Certified Wide-Bodies -- one you probably know and one you might not be as familiar with -- will be playing each other.
LSU will feature sophomore Glen ''Big Baby" Davis, who stands 6-9 and whose own press guide lists him at 310. This, we are told, is down some 40 pounds from high school, where he was -- get ready -- a running back. Davis is a scary force who is almost criminally graceful for his size. He executed an up-and-under move to split two Texas defenders last week that would have made Kevin McHale proud. Then he stepped out and nailed a big three. Outrageous.
But George Mason has a CWB of its own. Jai Lewis is a 6-7 senior listed at 275. He is a hunk of young manhood, and it might take 35 seconds to run around one of his picks. This game might be the first time all season he won't necessarily be the most intimidating player on the floor. The idea of an occasional low-post joust featuring Big Baby and Just Plain Big Jai is an intriguing thought.
Do papers employ fact-checkers or editors any more? Does Bob bother to read and check his own work once he's done? There has been a solid week of non-stop hype around these two games and Ryan, as the Globe's primarily hoops reporter, has had nothing to do for 7 days but think about these games. Expecting him and the Globe to keep track of which team is playing which in the Final Four would seem to me a pretty easy bar to get over.
Perhaps its the rest of us that are fools for working for a living.
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