Friday, January 20, 2006

Jackie Mac's take

I'm surprised the voracious Celtics fans on this blog haven't posted anything on Jackie MacMullan's recent analysis of the Celtics. She makes the case against the Blount/Olowokandi trade, but also talks about the state of this very young team.

Next season. Tired of hearing it? You are not alone. Boston's fan base is growing weary of looking to the future. They want results now, and they aren't getting them, because this team is young and mistake-prone and soft defensively. That causes them to lose tight games, which causes further fan angst, which further heightens the fact that we are coming up on 20 years since this franchise has won a championship, which further rachets up the heat on the boss, Danny Ainge, and his coach, Doc Rivers.

The most recent war cry is these Celtics are underachieving.

That's where you lose me. The Celtics are about where I expected them to be. When you take a team that won 45 games, subtract two of its most seasoned veterans (Antoine Walker and Gary Payton), and add yet another draft pick that isn't old enough to rent a car (Gerald Green), did you really expect it would be an upgrade? I'm not suggesting Boston should have held onto Walker or Payton, but without adding any other veterans to the mix, which they should have done, they were bound to take a step back. I'll never forget the fixed, forced smile on Rivers's face when Green's name was called on draft night. Doc knew the kid was two, maybe three years away from helping him. In the life of an NBA coach, that's an eternity.


First question -- could the C's really have signed veteran free agents given that they're over the cap? Or is she just talking about a trade? But I think her overall point is well made, and similar to one that Renato has been making here.

Meanwhile, Ainge continues to dial up Seattle and offer Green, in hopes of satisfying his obsession for the Sonics' Robert Swift. The word out of the Sonics' offices continues to be the same: no thanks.


At least Ainge knows who he wants. We have no idea if Swift will ever pan out, but I seem to recall Pitino making many boneheaded moves, the most significant of which was failing to pull the trigger on the Jermaine O'Neal deal when Seattle or Portland was asking for three number one picks which yielded Kendrick Brown, Joe Johnson and Joeseph Forte. Ugh.

The sobering statistic that rankles Ainge is the fact his team is 5-13 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. ''I don't think there's another team in the league that's lost more than eight games [by 5 or fewer]," he said. ''I'm not saying we should be 10 games over .500, but collectively as a team, I'm disappointed in some of the results."


Again, this is an issue of the youth of the team and/or poor coaching, isn't it? Maybe Simmons was right. Personally, I tend to blame this on the youth of the team. Veterans know how to maintain focus and not blow games. Young players are still trying to figure out how to play at a consistently high level. Which brings me to Jackie's next point.

Most nights, Al Jefferson hasn't been on the floor for those crucial minutes. He was averaging just over 17 minutes a game because of his defensive struggles, even as chants of ''Play the kids" grow more insistent. Someday Jefferson might be a 20-and-10 guy, but at the moment he's a young player with enormous potential who isn't consistent enough to earn major minutes. Rivers remains steadfast in his resolve not to hand Big Al time without justification.

He's right.

''He's got to earn it," Rivers said. ''No. 1, it makes the player more accountable. No. 2, if you don't do it that way, then you get guys saying, 'Why should I work so hard? I'm going to play anyway.' And, No. 3, you'll lose every guy on your team that has been busting his butt but doesn't play.

''I understand how people feel about Al. I'm a fan. Young players in the NBA are like backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Everyone wants to see them play -- but they look a lot better when they're not playing."


So, there's the argument against playing the pups. Make 'em earn it. But I think Doc's analysis is a little off. I think the temperment of the player is much more important than any incentives the coaches dangle in front of them. Did Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant need incentive to become the players they were? No. They have an internal drive which allowed them to succeed from the moment they joined the league. Their development was sheltered somewhat, but not nearly as much as Perkins and Jefferson, in my opinion.

Finally, Jackie sums up with this:

You wonder how much longer Pierce will wait for Jefferson to develop into an All-Star forward. No. 34 has been a poised, professional, agreeable superstar who is having the best season of his career. There are suitors everywhere, but trading him now would set Boston back to ground zero. Having said that, if Pierce respectfully asks to be moved, will the team comply? And if it doesn't, will it get ugly?

Rivers knows there's a growing number of folks who'd like to see him dumped instead. He is human; he wonders what his future holds, even as a member of the ownership group stops by and offers his support, as one of them did yesterday.

Ainge, under fire himself, can sense the negativity that is starting to envelop his coach.

''I'm very aware of it, and I think it's so unfair," Ainge said. ''We're missing free throws at the end of the game. We're missing block outs at the end of the game. It's a different player at the wrong time at a crucial moment. I'm not saying the coach has nothing to do with any of that -- we all have to share in what's gone on. But to blame him for that stuff . . . people talk about Doc's rotations. How can you set a rotation with a team that's 14-23? With that kind of record aren't you supposed to try new combinations that might work?"

The continued improvement of Delonte West and Perkins is good news, yet will they ever be front-line, impact players who will win you a title? The inability of the veterans to convert in crunch time remains the bad news, and at times, the defense is appalling.

Michael Olowokandi can't fix that for them. These young Celtics need time. But how much? The clock is ticking, for Ainge and Rivers -- and Pierce, who isn't getting any younger.


Good questions. And people, we already know the definitive answer to at least one question raised by Jackie. Success is not a choice, and the negativity in this town sucks.

3 comments:

t.s. said...

I don't mind making the pups earn it, but my impression has been that Rivers' rotation has been a whole lot less predictable than that.

B said...

First, on the matter of signing free agents. The Celtics had the full MLE (~$5M) available last summer. So, like 29 other NBA teams, they could have signed somebody to a little under the average cost of a rotation player. The key issue is the relative lack of talent available on the market last summer. With more teams looking to spend than decent players to sign you had players that would be backups on strong playoff teams (Bobby Simmons, Earl Watson) signing long term deals for $5-8M per. These players would have to play at the top of their potential to justify such their contracts, and for the most part they haven't. It's perhaps not surprising that a number of the trade rumors going around the league now involve the same teams trying to dump the players they signed just six months ago

B said...

Secondly, on the matter of Robert Swift. A Green for Swift trade is an absolute no-brainer in my book. Swift is a 7' center with unusual coordination, agility and a soft shooting touch. Green is a 6'8" shooting guard with great elevation and an outside shot. The former much rarer than the later. Both are projects, but were part of the same original high school class and are basically the same age. At this point Swift is playing 20-25 minutes a night in the NBA without foul trouble while putting up stat lines like 12/7 (with 5 offensive board), 8/8 (with 4 offensive boards), etc. He looked pretty good going against Shaq in the second half of the Heat game the other night. While it looks like Danny's pre-draft love of Swift is going to be validated I'm afraid that it's probably too late for the Celtics to steal him for as little as Gerald Green.