Just so we're all on the same page, here's a clipping from Hoops Hype on the Celtics salaries for the next few years.
Let's keep in mind, as per my earlier post, that without a trade, the salaries would be essentially the same through 07/08, given that that's the year that Ricky's deal runs out. Let's accept B's figure of $60-65m for the luxury tax. Here's what we're looking at.
This year, the C's are pretty much near the luxury level, at $58m. Next year, if they don't sign any free agents, that figure drops to $52m. That's the final year of Perkins's contract. B says Perkins may be worth $10m. I don't see that based on his production. Blount had much better production in his "contract" year and landed a deal that began in the $5m range and averaged about $7m per year. But let's give B the benefit of the doubt and settle on about $7m for Perkins as the starting point for his next contract. Resigning Perkins for that number next year would put the Celtics right about where they are now -- $59m in payroll, just under the luxury threshold.
If the Celtics wait until the end of the 06/07 season and offer Perkins a qualifying offer, they can match whatever another team offers him. That contract would begin in 07/08. Then, even if you start at B's figure of $10m per year for Perkins, you'd still have only about $53m in total payroll, since the C's current projected payroll for that year is $43m. (Of course, none of this includes other addtions to the roster, etc., but you get the point.) Keep in mind that this figure would be the exact same for 07/08 if Ricky and Blount were still on the team, as that's the last year of Ricky's contract.
After that, all bets are off. Pierce is signed through 06/07 with a player option for 07/08. There's no guarantee that he's staying. And if he is, he won't be re-signed at the $16m+ figure that he is now. He'll be 32 and on the downside. The C's brass might even trade him next year, when they could acquire some expiring contracts and young talent/picks. In any event, it doesn't matter. Either way, the C's payroll looks to drop again 08/09, which is the year that they really have to begin paying Jefferson/West (the C's have team options in 07/08, and can re-sign them or make them qualifying offers prior to the 08/09 season.) It's tough to say exactly how much might be available to resign those two. It depends greatly on Pierce and Perkins. But here's the kicker.
Because the Celtics have shed themselves of one year of Blount's contract, they have much greater flexibility going into the 09/10 season. If managment was pleased with the direction of the team and wanted to resign both Jefferson and West even though it would send them over the luxury threshold, they could and would do it, because next year, they wipe $25 million off the payroll.
I might add that all this assumes that the Celtics won't make any more moves. Both Raef and Szczerbiak may well become atttractive to other teams as their contracts approach their end. Who knows. But I hardly think this is a cap killer (or luxury tax killer) any more than the Blount deal was. If anything, by shortening the contract, I think it gives the Celtics a lot more options for what to do with the pups.
All that being said, I think it's a waste of time to look further than next year, when the C's are in good shape to re-sign Perkins (and for far less than $10m). Everything after that depends on Pierce, and my gut says he's not staying. But even if he does stay, I think they'll be able to keep the big new three.
By the way, will email more tomorrow about B's post about getting rid of Blount for minutes, and R.M.'s post about rebuilding modes. In short, you both make good points and I partially agree with both of you. But I think there's some legitimacy to the minutes argument, and I also think there's some room for disagreement on rebuilding, particularly when you point to the Bulls as a "success" story. ;) As I said, more tomorrow.
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