More reaction to Where's Wally

So, I've been incommunicado for most of today in jury duty at Middlesex Superior Courthouse. Haven't had much chance to read through the various reactions to the Davis/Blount trade, but here are some more thoughts:

First, let's put aside issues of touches, chemistry, and other issues like that. Let's assume that Pierce is staying, that he's the top dog on offense, and that Wally will be option #2, much the same way he already was on the T-Wolves, and much the same way Davis was the Celtics.

Here's what Wally brings to the table -- he's a guy who spreads the floor on offense, who can knock down threes and mid-range jumpers, and forces teams to guard him on the perimiter. He can also occasionally take his man off the dribble. I'd call him a poor man's version of Ray Allen.

So the question becomes is he a better player for the Celtics than Ricky Davis? I think there's no question. Check out his stats -- he's a much better shooter than Davis (about 50 points higher FG% and 3PT FG%), and has similar rebounds and assists.* He's going to help spread the floor out for Pierce and West to penetrate, and also to prevent the defense from collapsing down on Jefferson and Perkins. And he's only 28. Assuming he stays healthy, Wally should remain a quality player for the duration of his contract as the younger players on the team mature.

Which brings us to the next beneficial part of the trade -- more playing time for Jefferson and Perkins. Clearly, the Celtics wanted to be rid of Blount and his contract. But a major part of that, I believe, was their feeling that they had some pretty good young players who were beginning to mature, and that playing Blount was retarding their progress. Given that, two thumbs up to getting rid of Blount.

Now let's get to the money, because in the end, it's all about the money to some degree. Let's check out Wally's contract and the Davis/Blount contracts. (One quick note: according to the guys on WEEI, Wally's contract calls for a 15% trade kicker... ouch. But so does Blount's, so the numbers will remain essential the same for the comparison below.) So let's take a look at the side by side numbers for each year.

2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10
Wally 10m 11m 12m 13m
R/B 11m 12m 13m 7m 8m

So what you've primarily done is shorten the length of one of your unsavory contracts. In essence, you pay $6m more one year, and save $8m the next. If the issue is re-signing your young players, I say that doesn't make a huge difference in 2008/9, but it makes an enormous difference in 2009/10. Why, you may ask?

It just so happens that LaFrentz's and Wally's contracts are both up the same year -- at the end of the 2008/9 season. Pierce's expires the year prior. Depending on how the youngsters develop and what the Celtics decide to do, they actually have a lot of options heading into the 2007/8 and 2008/9 season, and a lot more than if they had kept Blount and his $8m deal. Should they decide to deal Pierce, they could aquire young players and expiring contracts, and use the saved money to pay the young guys. (Most of the young guys have team options through 2007/8 and qualifying offers in 2008/9; Perkins is the notable exception, with his options coming up one year prior.) Alternately, they could choose to sign their young players and keep Pierce, and simply let Wally and LaFrentz go at the end of the 2008/9 season. That would put them over the cap and probably into luxury terrirtory for one season before taking $26 million off the books in 2009/10. Or they could do none of the above and continue to overhaul and tweak the roster with trades, etc., as they go along.

In short, I'm coming around to the thinking that despite the ugly outrageousness of Wally's contract, it's not the enormous albatross that it appears at first blush. It might even fit well with their long term plan. Plus, don't forget that Kandi-man's $5m comes off the books at the end of this year, and Vin Baker stops counting against the cap at the end of next year (to the tune of $5m per). And while that money won't bring in major free agents or anything, it might get something decent, or again, they could save it for the kids.

In the end, I'd give the deal a tentative thumbs up both on-court and on-the-bottom-line. I guess I just have one question left -- how much will we miss Ricky's D?

--------------
*It's a little unfair to compare Ricky and Wally directly, since Wally (when uninjured) plays a lot more minutes and is asked to do totally different things in their offense (Wally is a shooter on a team where Garnett runs the offense from the post; Davis was a creator in both Cleveland and here, even when playing with Pierce.)