Perhaps another way to make my observations about Gomes' physical limitations is that if Al Jefferson put together a week like Gomes just had I'd be far more excited.Which led me to ask: have Perkins or Jefferson put together weeks like Gomes? Or better still, have they put together 7 game stretches like Gomes? I did a quick search and came up with these averages for what appeared to be the best 7 game stretches of the year for Jefferson, Perkins, Gomes and Blount (just for kicks):
Overall, the numbers are strikingly similar in many ways. But given the disparities in playing time, it's a bit like comparing apples to oranges. Thus, here are the points and rebounds per 48 minutes for the best 7 game stretches of the season for the Fab Four:
The chart makes it clear -- Jefferson, when he can get minutes, stay on the court and be productive, is clearly the best big man that the Celtics have. But Gomes and Perkins are remarkably similar, at least in terms of basic production (obviously, this doesn't include blocks, steals, etc.). And frankly, Gomes is within shouting distance of Jefferson, if only because he's been able to stay on the court for longer stretches.
There is one more caveat to all this, however. Jefferson and Perkins have a lot more minutes and games under their belt than Gomes does, and that doesn't include their previous NBA experience. Gomes has started or gotten significant playing time in exactly one stretch of 7 games this season (he did play significant minutes for periods in October and November, but not consistently). When given the chance, he managed to stay on the court, and put up consistent, legitimate NBA numbers. While Jefferson and Perkins have been given minutes throughout the season, they haven't performed consistently. In short, for an undersized rookie power forward who was the 50th pick in the draft, Gomes has come up pretty big. If he keeps it up at this level or improves, he's going to have a decent NBA career. And by the way, he's #17 in the league in terms of offensive rebounds per 48 minutes, according to NBA.com.
Lastly, I think the charts above indicate how truly awful Mark Blount was/is. I'll throw in the caveat that there was one other 7 game stretch where his rebounds per 48 minutes were .6 higher, but his scoring average was 2 points lower. That's pathetic for a 7 footer with talent, which we all know he has. That's what lack of hustle and determination will get you.
3 comments:
This is an interesting series of comparisons. Thanks for putting the time to find some numbers that speak to an off-head point I made in the last post. Certainly each player has had some good stretchs of basketball and each player has a ways to go.
At the same time the points and rebounds per-game and per-48 don't fully capture the issues that each player struggles with. For Jefferson and Perkins this has clearly been foul troubles, difficulties playing team defense, and poor decision-making in Doc's offense.
Watch Jefferson in particular when he's away from the ball on either end of the court. His rotations on defense are often late and inconsistent, either giving up an easy hoop, or focing a team-mate to commit a foul. At times you can practically see him thinking 'OK, Doc told me when X happens I should Y' before he acts. On offense, Jefferson's post moves are very predictable. During many games he tends to revert to a few shots that he feels most comfortable with: the drop-step spin for a layup and the mini-hook. Both of these are relatively easy to block by taller PFs or help defenders that are looking for them.
None of which makes Jefferson's growing pains that much worse or exceptional than we should expect for a high school kid taken in the middle of the first round. As he gets better at these things his game will improve, and a lot of following the Celtics this year has involved looking for this improvement.
In the interests of space we'll skip Perkins-- whose defense is significantly better than Al's but who is a black hole on offense-- and jump to Gomes.
Gomes is strong in almost all the areas where Al and Perk are weak. He has a great grasp of team offense and defense, consistently making good decisions away from the ball on both ends of the court. Your comments that Gomes has less playing time than the other two in the NBA is correct, but Gomes so clearly benefits from 4 years of playing time and coaching at the college level. In this sense the difference in Jefferson, Perkins and Gomes' per-game numbers is not so much 'apples and oranges' as a reflection of the big diffeciencies in the first two's games and a strength of the later.
A longer version of my original comment might be 'it'll be exciting when Perkins and Jefferson can consistently play 40 minutes of good team offense and defense without getting into serious foul trouble by the middle of the second quarter'. I suspect we might be a couple of years, at best, until both of them are there.
Couldn't agree more about the various strengths and weaknesses of their games. I hope I made it clear that I was simply trying to focus on a couple of statistics that made easy and useful comparisons between various players, not take an exhaustive look at the completeness of their games.
That being said, I also agree that Perk and Al's biggest problem has been staying on the floor. To me, that's what makes Gomes's emergence, collegiate experience or not, so remarkable. Even if Gomes benefits from being older and from playing in a more sophisitcated system in college, that doesn't explain everything. There are lots of rookies who struggle with the transition to the NBA. Plus, rookies usually get lots of fouls called on them, but Gomes has managed to stay in games and play lots of minutes. And on top of that, he's produced consistently (so far).
At the end of your post, you touch on the biggest X factor of all -- how young players develop. Do they have the desire to get better, to work on the fundamentals, etc. The nice thing about Gomes is that he seems to have a foundation there, and the determination to get better and succeed. He may be more of a finished product than the other two, but he's also got himself pointed in the right direction. It appears that Perkins and Jefferson are also in the same boat, but as you point out, only time will tell.
'it'll be exciting when Perkins and Jefferson can consistently play 40 minutes of good team offense and defense without getting into serious foul trouble by the middle of the second quarter'. I suspect we might be a couple of years, at best, until both of them are there.
Or maybe they'll never get there. Look at Ricky Davis -- he didn't lack the physical ability, and he certainly played hard often, but he could not play team basketball for long stretches.
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