This blows. So much for the hometown discount Arroyo accepted when he signed his deal. (Surely the Sox will take a hit for abusing Arroyo's good will, unless something else is going on here.) And Pena struck out 116 times last year with only 20 walks. Wonderful.
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Well, this would seem to answer two questions:
1) Will Arroyo end up the 5th starter or in the bullpen? (neither)
2) Should you completely ignore the advice of your agent? (probably not a good idea)
In all seriousness, I feel somewhat bad for Arroyo-- who took a serious hometown discount to be dealt to the Reds-- but only so bad. A few years ago he was a career lock on AAA. After doing well in Boston he has a decent contract, a World Series ring, a bunch of records, and is seen as a decent pitcher.
He was also the most tradable of the Red Sox' collection of end-of-rotation arms. Wells and Clement don't appear to be going anywhere. With Papelbon, Hanson and others coming up through the system the Sox could afford to move him.
Pena, on the other hand, is a prospect where the Sox' farm system currently appears weak: a power hitting OF with potential. He gives us real depth at all three positions and while he might start off platooning with Nixon he gives the team options regarding the futures of Manny, Coco and Trot. The presence of Manny and Papi should ease the transition for our latest Dominican acquisition.
This feels like something of a wash right now, but might be a big win for Boston a few years down the road. Arroyo is old and average and in a few years will be older and average. Pena still has that magic word, potential.
Far be it from me to question Theo and the gang. But Arroyo was a pretty valuable player/trading asset, and Pena doesn't seem fair value, at least not yet. Arroyo is relatively young (29); under contract for three years in what should be his prime; puts up consistently good ERA and win totals (admittedly on a great offensive team); and is never, ever on the disabled list. (He supposedly has the proverbial "rubber arm; in fact, I read once that he doesn't even ice down after games, which is pretty much unheard of.) That's a great guy to have at the back end of your rotation or in your bullpen, particularly for $3m per year or so.
On the other hand, here's the Baseball Prospectus take on Pena. This is from their book, not the website, so please forgive any errors:
Pena managed to tread water in 2005. That's not fatal for a 24 year old with Pena's power potential, but playing only 428 games (combined majors and minors) in 2002-2005 because the Reds couldn't solve their outfield logjam could substantially retard his development, and Pena still makes the kinds of fundamental mistakes that he should have left behind in Double A. It's also hindered him from improving against RHPs, who can often get him to chase outside breaking pitches. After adding 30 pounds of muscle in the past two years, Pena appears to have lost some of his range in the outfield, but he'll need to keep himself toned up; in 2005, Pena was on the DL for more than a month after straining his left quad. A full season in the 2006 linup with 600 plus plate appearnces should show the world what Pena can really do.
So, to recap: he put on 30 lbs of muscle and has had issues with breaking down; his batting eye is so bad that even Baseball Prospectus knows to pitch him away; and he makes fielding errors that most minor leaguers avoid. But at least he's got power potential.
Watching how badly Arroyo regressed last season reduces a great deal the value I'd need to see back in a trade. To his credit, his career probably peaked in '04, or exactly when the Sox needed it to. He had some great games at the Yanks down the streth run and he will always be one of the 25. All honor and respect to the 25.
That said, he was very hittable last season and he's gotten so bad against left-handed hitters that it's hard to see him as a starting pitcher for a competing team in September and October. The idea of counting on him to go 6 innings in a fall game in Yankee stadium against Matsui, Damon, Posada, etc. just makes me cringe. But if he's not going to start for us, why are we paying him 4th starter money?
Ultimately, this feels like the Sox bought low (waiver wire) and sold high (24 year old OF prospect).
All honor and respect to the 25.
The Silmarillion, right? Or one of those other obscure Tolkein books?
Maybe an old Doctor Who episode. Who knows where my mind comes up with these things.
I think the claim that Arroyo regressed last year is a little unfair. My understanding is that most pitchers do better in their first few games against teams until hitters figure out their delivery, tendencies and weaknesses. Thus, a pitcher who can hack it in the big leagues may do better in their first season than their second simply because of the familiarity factor.
But the biggest plus for Arroyo, in my opinion, is the fact that he's been remarkably durable, at least thus far. 200 innings per year, year in, year out. Those are Wakefield numbers, and Schilling numbers when healthy. Couple that to a $3m per year salary, and that's not a bad option to have.
By the way, compare Arroyo's stats to Matt Clement, who everyone agrees is a better pitcher if he has his head on straight. Arroyo had a better ERA, better WHIP, and pitched 15 more innings. Clement had more strikeouts and was better on some other stats, but is being paid $6m more per year. And I don't think anyone ever suggested Arroyo is a strikeout artist -- his stuff is more comparable to someone like Bill Lee -- junk that gets people out.
I think your comparison between Clement and Arroyo is a good one. Both are end-of-rotation arms. No one knows which will be better in '06, although I'll acknowledge that lots of Arroyo's indicator stats are better. And of course the salary is the big difference: Arroyo could be traded to a mid- or small-market team that needs cheap pitching for a decent prospect. None of our potential trading partners could have afforded Clement.
The discount Arroyo gave the Sox increased his trade value to Boston, as his agent apparently told him repeatedly. And if he didn't suspect something like this was coming the Sox adament and repeated refusals to give him a no trade clause should have been an indication.
If the Sox hadn't gone and gotten Josh Beckett this off season, and weren't trying to work Papelbon into the rotation, I might feel worse about moving Arroyo. Even with this trade our pitching staff has improved this off-season.
Pena hit .291/.881 against lefties last season. Nixon hit .224/.639. If Pena allows us to regularly sit Nixon against LFP he might make a big difference in our RF production from day one.
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