Looking for a reason to root for Ron and against Kobe?

It can be difficult to follow all the permutations of future draft picks that Ainge has traded for and away in recent years. Two in particular, however, appear pertinent enough to this season's stretch run to be worth understanding in detail.

The Gary Payton-Chris Mihm trade two years ago transfered to the Celtics the rights to a future Lakers first round pick which was lottery protected last year, top ten protected this year, top five protected next year, and so on. I suspect to Mitch Kupchak's surprise the Lakers stumbled out of the playoffs last season and so they kept their pick and used it on high school prospect Andrew Bynum. Their obligation to us rolled forward to this next draft. If they end up with a selection in the top 10 they retain it, otherwise it transfers to Boston.

As part of the Antoine Walker reacquisition at last year's trading deadline the Celtics promised to send the Atlanta Hawks the lowest of their first round picks in the next draft in which they have multiple selections, provided that lowest pick is outside the lottery. Atlanta later traded the rights to this pick to Phoenix as part of the Joe Johnson deal.

In other deals (Jiri Welsch to Cleveland, Mark Blount and Ricky Davis to Minnesota) Boston has acquired the Cavs first round pick in 2007 and the Timberwolves first round pick in 2008. Both, I believe, have lottery protections that I would have to look up.

Considering how all this might play out over the next six months, a few scenarios present themselves. I have listed them here, roughly in order of decreasing probability.

1. The Celtics end up in the lottery and the Lakers hold on to the 8th seed in the West, good for the ~15-16th pick in the draft. The Lakers pick transfers to the Celtics who pass it on to Phoenix (via Atlanta).
2. The Celtics remain in the lottery and the Lakers fall out of the playoffs. The Lakers end up with the most likely draft slot for their record, somewhere between #11-14. Consequently, their pick transfers to the Celtics. Because of the lottery protections in Boston's deal with Atlanta the Celtics retain the rights to this selection, despite having multiple picks in the first round.
3. The Celtics remain in the lottery and the Lakers both fall out of the playoffs and move up in the lottery to a slot in the top ten. LA retains their selection. Both LA's debt to us and our debt to Atlanta/Phoenix roll over for another year.
4. The Celtics make the playoffs but the Lakers don't, ending up with a #11-14 pick. The Celtics send their lower selection (this time their own) to Phoenix.
5. The Celtics make the playoffs and the Lakers don't, end up with a top ten pick. Lakers and Celtics both retain their own selections. All obligations roll forward one year.

Anything other than #1 or #2 is enough of a stretch that I'd be surprised to see it happen. Which of these outcomes is preferable hinges, it would seem, on whether you prefer a #11-14 pick in this year's relatively weak draft or to take your chances with next season. The most likely scenario would seem to be that the Celtics would end with three picks next year-- their own, LA's, and Cleveland's-- with the Cavs pick likely to be at least in the 20s. So would you rather have the #11-14 pick this year or the worst of these three next year? The better you think the Lakers or Cavs are likely to be next season the more you should want the Lakers to be losing games now.


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What brings all this to mind?

Well, the Lakers have just lost two of three games to lottery teams (losses to Portland and Boston, win over Orlando) and appear to have cooled off from their December momentum. The 2-6 slump with which they started February included loses to such powerhouses as Charlotte, New Orleans/Oklahoma and Atlanta.

Closing in behind them are the Ron Artest-Mike Bibby-Brad Miller Sacramento Kings, winners of 8 of their last 11. Having been well out of the playoff hunt for the first half of the season the Kings are now only a game and a half back of LA with 25 to play.

How should Celtics fans want this to play out? Pick now or pick later?