How has the Wally trade effected Pierce's game?

One of the big arguments made in favor of exchanging Ricky Davis for Wally Szczerbiak was that the later was a better 'fit' with Pierce on offense. Wally has historically been a higher-percentage outside shooter, and more efficient offensive player, who supporters saw as the better complement to Pierce's repeated defender-drawing drives to the basket. Critics of the trade pointed to Wally's inability to create his own shot on offense as reason why the Celtics were now less dangerous and easier to defend than they had been before.

It's been several weeks since the trade and listening to this debate I've found myself wondering: what do the numbers say?

The data used here was downloaded after the win against LA but before the loss to the Heat. I've only had spare minutes to poke at it and have done far less than I originally intended, but will post it now before it slips further into obsolescence.

Here are Pierce's stats for the 41 games played pre-Wally and the first 14 games since the trade. The later includes 2/21 against Utah and 2/22 against Portland in which Wally played a combined 3 minutes. Pulling these two games out of the data actually changed the numbers very little, so I've opted to leave them in.



So is Pierce playing better with Wally than he was with Davis and Blount? Well, I guess that depends on what you consider better.

Watching recent games it is clear how often the team turns to Pierce to carry the load on offense, and these numbers are consistent with that observation. Were he to average 22.5 field goal attempts per game over a season it would easily surpass his previous career high of 20 in '02-'03. It would also establish Pierce as one of the absolute top 'volume shooters' in the league. Only Kobe and Allen Iverson have averaged 23 or more shots per game over the season to date.

Which of Pierce's other numbers have gone up? Well, in addition to the 4.7 more points he's scoring on 5.2 more shots, his share of the team offense is also up. Prior to the trade Pierce scored 26% of the Celtics points on the season. Since the trade he's accounting for 32%. For context, the three top scorers this season in the NBA-- Kobe, Iverson and LeBron-- are responsible for 37%, 33% and 31% of the points their teams have scored.

Where is Pierce being less productive and/or efficient? Well, in several other areas that are captured by these basic stats. His FG% is down and his three point FG% is way down. So is rebounding. Other stats (turnovers, fouls, blocks, etc.) all look worse since the trade although the change is relatively small compared to those I list here. Given the small sample number of games played I'd be nervous about reading too much into them, individually.

It's also worth pointing out, partly as an indicator of how incredibly well Pierce has been playing this season, that his post-trade drop in FG% brings him down to the team average, which on the year is 4th best in the league. The almost 50% shooting he produced prior to the trade was just a ridiculously high number for a team's primary offensive option. A piece of analysis I have not done (calling all geeks!) is to compare the Celtics team FG% before and after the trade. On the year they are 46.7%. Perhaps that Doc Rivers and his offensive system aren't all bad after all.

In aggregate we're seeing a different kind of production out of Pierce since the trade. Ironically, it looks to me more like the kind of player that for two years we've been hearing the team doesn't want him to be. To be clear: I think Paul and Doc are doing what needs to be done given that the exchange of Davis and Blount for Wally exchanged two players that could create their own shots for one who can't. The team may not have any choice but to have Pierce 'go Kobe' most nights for them to have a chance to win.

At the same time, I don't think it's a coincidence that Kobe, Iverson and Pierce all play for highly flawed teams whose best aspirations are to be blown out of the first round of the playoffs. Does 'going Kobe' indicate the Pierce is playing better, stepping it up, etc. etc.? Perhaps. He sure is jacking up more shots. I guess if given the choice I'd rather have the pre-trade Pierce's stat line and better complementary players than Wally.